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I don't see it as a problem. It's an asset that is gaining value.
I sure wouldn't curse if my stock holdings went up.
You need to learn economics, then.
A currency that is too strong is considered bad, just as is a currency that is too weak.
Corrections, as they are referred to in the stock market, are considered healthy and necessary for growth. Unabated increasing in stock value just creates a pool of bag-holders that eventually get crushed and drag everything else down with them.
And real estate equities that continually shoot up and end up dividing the haves from the have-nots, with the have-nots having no choice but to leave the area, creating a bubble economy by which at some point things get so off-kilter that it causes a major decompression. At present, someone new to Seattle cannot be a homeowner unless they make 50% above the median family salary for the area - over $100,000 per year.
There are very, very few cities in the world that can actually weather outrageous basic cost of living expenses. They generally have to be world-class type places - we're talking the NYC's, the LA's (and, if we're being honest, LA is an inheritance city), the San Franciscos and Hong Kongs and Londons of the world. Seattle is not such a place. There is going to come a time - and it's going to come without warning - that Amazon stock stops shooting straight up and wealthy Chinese businessmen looking to find an offshore location to put their money stop spending so freely. Those who got out before that point will be happy for the experience. Those who got in near the end of it will be completely crushed - and the entire system will be punished for it.
A currency that is too strong is considered bad, just as is a currency that is too weak.
Corrections, as they are referred to in the stock market, are considered healthy and necessary for growth. Unabated increasing in stock value just creates a pool of bag-holders that eventually get crushed and drag everything else down with them.
And real estate equities that continually shoot up and end up dividing the haves from the have-nots, with the have-nots having no choice but to leave the area, creating a bubble economy by which at some point things get so off-kilter that it causes a major decompression. At present, someone new to Seattle cannot be a homeowner unless they make 50% above the median family salary for the area - over $100,000 per year.
There are very, very few cities in the world that can actually weather outrageous basic cost of living expenses. They generally have to be world-class type places - we're talking the NYC's, the LA's (and, if we're being honest, LA is an inheritance city), the San Franciscos and Hong Kongs and Londons of the world. Seattle is not such a place. There is going to come a time - and it's going to come without warning - that Amazon stock stops shooting straight up and wealthy Chinese businessmen looking to find an offshore location to put their money stop spending so freely. Those who got out before that point will be happy for the experience. Those who got in near the end of it will be completely crushed - and the entire system will be punished for it.
Those who are priced out of Seattle commute from outlying areas. It's a balance between convenience/proximity to work vs dealing with a commute. Presumably housing demand will expand to the outlying areas to absorb any effects of a bubble before it gets to what you're describing.
It seems to me that supply/demand is operating correctly. I wouldn't be too certain that Seattle's economy will fail. It's not exactly Detroit.
If foreign investors are what's driving the market up, won't they take the biggest hit if your prediction comes true?
Those who are priced out of Seattle commute from outlying areas. It's a balance between convenience/proximity to work vs dealing with a commute. Presumably housing demand will expand to the outlying areas to absorb any effects of a bubble before it gets to what you're describing.
It seems to me that supply/demand is operating correctly. I wouldn't be too certain that Seattle's economy will fail. It's not exactly Detroit.
If foreign investors are what's driving the market up, won't they take the biggest hit if your prediction comes true?
Who do you think the first people out always are in any investment vehicle? It's always the big money investors. And that's supposing they even care about the losses - remember, they're bringing in money from a country that limits what you can leave in inheritance to like 50 grand, and the government keeps the rest. ANY haven is fine for them, even if it's a red liner.
What's happening up here isn't supply vs. demand. The occupancy rate is low, the purchase rate is high. It's the same phenomena that's wrecked Vancouver over the last number of years - insane housing costs and dead empty buildings.
Further, the outlying areas, by virtue of more people being pushed out, are having similar spikes, and people will only travel so far. Beyond that, we live in a uniquely provincial place who's urban growth planners actively attempt to make commutes difficult and stifle growth (see also: Surrounded 5 by buildings so you can't expand outwards, and then putting the convention center over it so you can't double deck; new 520 bridge with no expanded capacity; tunnel that has reduced capacity; digestion of express lanes on 90, road diets/bike lanes; "curb gardens"; et al).
I mean, this is all fine by me - my house goes up for sale in June, and I'll gladly take some sucker's money that wants to overpay what it should be worth by well into the 7 figures - I won't be here to have to see what happens when the party is over. But anyone who cares about the city should probably be a little concerned that the middle class has been completely abandoned.
This is the problem. Rents in Bellingham already are pushing the limit of affordability for the average worker, like an office worker at WWU or for the city admin, and the like. Where will those people live if it becomes a runaway market due to foreign investment?
Deming, Sumas, Kendall, Burlington, Blaine, Custer. The outskirts.
A currency that is too strong is considered bad, just as is a currency that is too weak.
Corrections, as they are referred to in the stock market, are considered healthy and necessary for growth. Unabated increasing in stock value just creates a pool of bag-holders that eventually get crushed and drag everything else down with them.
And real estate equities that continually shoot up and end up dividing the haves from the have-nots, with the have-nots having no choice but to leave the area, creating a bubble economy by which at some point things get so off-kilter that it causes a major decompression. At present, someone new to Seattle cannot be a homeowner unless they make 50% above the median family salary for the area - over $100,000 per year.
There are very, very few cities in the world that can actually weather outrageous basic cost of living expenses. They generally have to be world-class type places - we're talking the NYC's, the LA's (and, if we're being honest, LA is an inheritance city), the San Franciscos and Hong Kongs and Londons of the world. Seattle is not such a place. There is going to come a time - and it's going to come without warning - that Amazon stock stops shooting straight up and wealthy Chinese businessmen looking to find an offshore location to put their money stop spending so freely. Those who got out before that point will be happy for the experience. Those who got in near the end of it will be completely crushed - and the entire system will be punished for it.
I agree. Much as I like it here, it's not a world class city. The other cities you name are far more sophisticated and gave better museums, etc. in our city, they don't even want to fix the potholes but they expect savvy sophisticated high earners to somehow not notice...
This can't possibly be due all to tech development.
I actually think tech jobs are NOT the number one reason. Look at Spokane, Minneapolis or 50 other cities across the nation, similar story lines. Spokane has prices at all time highs with inventory down 25% YOY, the same as here, but certainly in no way because of high paying jobs. The drivers have to more along the lines of an improving economy causing everyone that doubled up to get by wanting their own homes + low interest rates including the easy money investors have used + no building all those down years + wall street investors buying up all the inventory. Now its a frenzy where every investor thinks its easy money, flipping houses is in style and people seem to think its up up and never down, a dangerous way of thinking if you ask me.
By the way, loans are no longer hard to get, there may not be liar loans but 3.5% down and 600 credit score gets you a house now...kinda scary when the next recession comes as they always do.
Who do you think the first people out always are in any investment vehicle? It's always the big money investors. And that's supposing they even care about the losses - remember, they're bringing in money from a country that limits what you can leave in inheritance to like 50 grand, and the government keeps the rest. ANY haven is fine for them, even if it's a red liner.
What's happening up here isn't supply vs. demand. The occupancy rate is low, the purchase rate is high. It's the same phenomena that's wrecked Vancouver over the last number of years - insane housing costs and dead empty buildings.
Further, the outlying areas, by virtue of more people being pushed out, are having similar spikes, and people will only travel so far. Beyond that, we live in a uniquely provincial place who's urban growth planners actively attempt to make commutes difficult and stifle growth (see also: Surrounded 5 by buildings so you can't expand outwards, and then putting the convention center over it so you can't double deck; new 520 bridge with no expanded capacity; tunnel that has reduced capacity; digestion of express lanes on 90, road diets/bike lanes; "curb gardens"; et al).
I mean, this is all fine by me - my house goes up for sale in June, and I'll gladly take some sucker's money that wants to overpay what it should be worth by well into the 7 figures - I won't be here to have to see what happens when the party is over. But anyone who cares about the city should probably be a little concerned that the middle class has been completely abandoned.
It's a rare day when I agree completely with Xanathos. This is one of those times.
Who do you think the first people out always are in any investment vehicle? It's always the big money investors. And that's supposing they even care about the losses - remember, they're bringing in money from a country that limits what you can leave in inheritance to like 50 grand, and the government keeps the rest. ANY haven is fine for them, even if it's a red liner.
What's happening up here isn't supply vs. demand. The occupancy rate is low, the purchase rate is high. It's the same phenomena that's wrecked Vancouver over the last number of years - insane housing costs and dead empty buildings.
Further, the outlying areas, by virtue of more people being pushed out, are having similar spikes, and people will only travel so far. Beyond that, we live in a uniquely provincial place who's urban growth planners actively attempt to make commutes difficult and stifle growth (see also: Surrounded 5 by buildings so you can't expand outwards, and then putting the convention center over it so you can't double deck; new 520 bridge with no expanded capacity; tunnel that has reduced capacity; digestion of express lanes on 90, road diets/bike lanes; "curb gardens"; et al).
I mean, this is all fine by me - my house goes up for sale in June, and I'll gladly take some sucker's money that wants to overpay what it should be worth by well into the 7 figures - I won't be here to have to see what happens when the party is over. But anyone who cares about the city should probably be a little concerned that the middle class has been completely abandoned.
1. Who says the occupancy rate is low? I've never heard that about Seattle.
1b. We have almost zero new condo construction in Seattle. It's nearly all rentals.
2. If people are pushed out by cost, they probably have less money. So they're paying less. It's still a downward curve as you go to the places people "escape" to.
3. I-5 wouldn't double-deck through Seattle under any scenario even without the convention center. Doing so would cut off crucial east-west connections. It would have several fatal flaws. Even in your dream scenario it would be a political impossibility.
4. The new 520 Bridge has HOV lanes, so it has substantially more capacity than the old one. Often an HOV lane carries more people than a regular lane, since one bus can obviously equal dozens of cars.
5. The 99 tunnel has the same capacity as the existing tunnel. It's for pass-throughs, and in that capacity it's the same except it adds breakdown lanes. The local traffic will have expanded and new surface roads. They have a website where you can look this stuff up.
6. Road diets tend to be a wash for car capacity. They get rid of left-turners blocking the way. And obviously good for bicyclists etc.
^I started to respond. Had gotten as far as "the bus would be on the road with or without the extra bus lane" and something about how 520 is still a parking lot. Then I realized that literally every single "point" you made was wrong, or at least displaying a lack of understanding of the subject material (and thus reading the data wrong). When starting from a position where you're talking to someone who is off on every point, that's an ideology that it's not worth trying to break down.
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