2017’s Most Competitive Neighborhoods for Homebuyers: 19 of Top 25 Are in the Seattle Area (for sale, apartments)

[Canamlian]

Originally Posted by pnwguy2

I love my hometown, but I do believe the entire metro is a bubble at this point. Who can predict the future, but there are signs the high real estate prices in the Seattle metro are at the point of bursting. Amazon is looking at another headquarters. Boeing is increasingly moving production to other cheaper areas. Microsoft is somewhat stagnant.

Don't get me wrong, I think the Seattle metro is still strong, but to continue to believe this will be an ongoing concept is somewhat misguided, IMO. Just look at the "boom and bust" history of the area for perspective. I certainly don't wish this on the area, but I have lived long enough to see the ups and downs. Just be prepared for a future that is not based on continued boom times. If it does continue, I will eat crow. But I don't expect it. Call me a negative nellie, but I think I am a realistic Seattle native that has seen it all.

Microsoft stock has doubled in the last two years. Would love to see what a non stagnant company does.

For all the repition of Seattle being a boom and bust town, it hasn’t had a localized bust in 40+ years. It’s not immune to broader macro factors, of course, but referring to an inevitable Seattle bust because it happened a few times in very one dimensional economic times is crudely reductionist.

[renli3d]

What, Kent isn't on the list?

Honestly though, if you're looking for an affordable place to live I highly recommend Kent. It has a bit of everything for everyone, from mansions on acreage to small cottages near shopping. Commute isn't bad either as you can tons of choices to I-5 or I-405. I'd say it's where Renton was in 2003 before Renton was gentrified.

[pnwguy2]

Originally Posted by Canamlian

Microsoft stock has doubled in the last two years. Would love to see what a non stagnant company does.

For all the repition of Seattle being a boom and bust town, it hasn’t had a localized bust in 40+ years. It’s not immune to broader macro factors, of course, but referring to an inevitable Seattle bust because it happened a few times in very one dimensional economic times is crudely reductionist.

I was not referring to the MSFT stock price, I was referring to employment in the Seattle area. This past year has resulted in thousands of layoffs, and the peak local employment is behind us here on the eve of 2018.

As for the "boom and bust" cycle, the last major downturn was the early to mid-80's, so about 30 years ago, but I won't nit-pick. However, you have to go back 100 years or more to see this pattern. Don't get me wrong, I am certainly not rooting for this to happen, I am just citing history.

[Canamlian]

Originally Posted by pnwguy2

I was not referring to the MSFT stock price, I was referring to employment in the Seattle area. This past year has resulted in thousands of layoffs, and the peak local employment is behind us here on the eve of 2018.

As for the "boom and bust" cycle, the last major downturn was the early to mid-80's, so about 30 years ago, but I won't nit-pick. However, you have to go back 100 years or more to see this pattern. Don't get me wrong, I am certainly not rooting for this to happen, I am just citing history.

Most of the Microsoft layoffs this year weren’t in this area and they just announced they’re rebuilding the Redmond campus to make room for another 8K employees.

The downturn in the early 80s was part of a national recession, not localized.

[pnwguy2]

Source? I found a Seattle Times article noting thousands of layoffs in the Seattle area for 2017, but couldn't link it because omg, I'm not a subscriber!

I will concede you are correct the 80's downturn was not necessarily localized, but some may offer it hit Seattle's manufacturing economy at that time harder than most areas.

[Canamlian]

Originally Posted by pnwguy2

Source? I found a Seattle Times article noting thousands of layoffs in the Seattle area for 2017, but couldn't link it because omg, I'm not a subscriber!

I will concede you are correct the 80's downturn was not necessarily localized, but some may offer it hit Seattle's manufacturing economy at that time harder than most areas.

From the Times: “The cuts are expected to total thousands of workers, the company said, without giving specifics. The vast majority of the affected employees are located outside the United States.” Layoffs were primarily in sales and were due to a reallocation of resources, not a downsizing of the whole business. The company is doing quite well and I’m willing to bet the total number of employees grew this year.

News on the Redmond campus expansion: https://www.geekwire.com/2017/micros...pment-project/

[CrazyDonkey]

Microsoft is pivoting from the Desktop to the Cloud to compete with Amazon, making a very large investment. The jury is out on whether it is going to work or not. Amazon's soaring stock price is based on massive debt and razor-thin profits. If other countries retaliate against the tariff (20% excise tax on goods manufactured by subsidiaries of U.S. corporations on foreign soil) hidden in the Republican tax bill, Boeing could be the #1 loser.

The bubble is worldwide, fueled by massive speculation, driving up values (real estate, stocks, crypto-currencies, etc., but not wages). Our values have been pumped up even higher due to the local tech boom. Speculation is an insatiable beast. You know you're in a bubble when you believe you are in a "new normal" - when the real new normal is a boom-and-bust and bubble-and-panic economy, with two major economic crashes in the last decade and a half, reminiscent of the 1890s and 1920s.

[KonaldDuth]

Redfin is a local company. The list is innacurate because Redfin has the more data on Seattle neighborhoods than others around the nation.

[pnwguy2]

Originally Posted by KonaldDuth

Redfin is a local company. The list is innacurate because Redfin has the more data on Seattle neighborhoods than others around the nation.

That is a good point, and one that I had not considered. However, Redfin is expanding throughout the country at a pretty good clip. My brother in CA has sent me many Redfin listings over the past few years from that State.

[west seattle gal]

Originally Posted by KonaldDuth

Redfin is a local company. The list is innacurate because Redfin has the more data on Seattle neighborhoods than others around the nation.

I think this is true. Marketwatch, Business Insider, and other sources via a quick google search don't even mention the Seattle area for hot markets in 2017. All of these things are skewed but Redfin in particular is marketing to potential Seattle buyers, hence the bias.