Downtown Seattle Association seems a bit confused (Spokane, Federal Way: sales, apartment complexes)

[margaretBartle]

This article in Crosscut talks about how Seattle can deal with the collapse of the office worker population.
https://crosscut.com/news/2023/02/do...at-it-could-be


It starts out with a description of how difficult it is to change office buildings into residential buildings - they were designed differently - need different infrastructure, and would probably need massive amounts of tax subsidies (that probably won't happen).


But then it goes on to talk about what would it would take to get more families into the city.


It seems like it's not a very cohesive view of how to deal with the vacancies coming up as leases signed before the lock-down are coming up for renewal, and probably won't get renewed.


Rents are really high in Seattle. Having the working population be cut n half (from 200,000 workers/day pre-lockdown to 100,000 today) is a big problem, but if the rents were lower, there would be a lot of businesses that would move there.



The author touched on that aspect, but only briefly.


I can't see downtown ever being a place where workers would want to raise a family.

Maybe I'm being short-sighted, but the current policies of laissez-faire policing are not resulting in a safe environment for children and teens, and I see no signs of that attitude changing.


It seems like the best thing would just be to let rents drop to the point where businesses are able to pay them. This seems like a classic case of how a market economy should work.

[CrazyDonkey]

Seattle has been becoming more like European cities, with the "idle" (capital gains earning) rich moving into the city and the "working" (wage earning) poor being kicked out into the far suburbs: Federal Way, Lakewood, Marysville, Bremerton, Pacific Hwy S., Casino Road, etc. Complicating this is the "exodus" of high wage-earning (mostly tech and finance) remote workers not just to the Seattle exurbs, but to Aberdeen/Hoquiam, Yakima, Spokane, Boise, Las Vegas, or basically anywhere with cheaper housing options and decent broadband internet.

The question is whether, like in China, we will end up with "ghost" towers standing empty because no one is willing to pay the minimum dollars/sqft needed to keep the lights on and the elevators working, etc. Will the luxury "office glut" eventually translate into a luxury "apartment glut", with tech and finance workers running out their leases and leaving to work/live remotely in cheaper far-flung places.

[LookinForMayberry]

Seattle has never been cohesive. As far as I can tell from reading its history, living there the first ten years of the thirty-three years we've been here, and still owning income property in Seattle, it's always been confusing.

They pretend to be liberal, as long as the city remains mostly segregated. They pretend to be advocates of the poor, and recently that has changed, but only to go as far as move the homeless off the street and stiff landlords who have mistakenly rented to deadbeats.

As far back as the city has been a city, it's been a city of uber-wealth and bums on skidrow, which I recall being told was where the term "skidrow" originated. It will most certainly follow the market when it comes to income, regardless of what a few sky-eyed do-gooders attempt. Unlike CrazyDonkey, I don't see it even being close to European, or even cosmopolitan. It will continue to be what is has been, an eclectic assortment of clashing views that tolerate each other because it's the only place to go in this state that has diverse amenities, good paying jobs, and great weather.

[Hemlock140]

Actually, skid row originated in Seattle when in the early day logs were skidded down the slopes from what is now downtown to the waterfront for shipping.

It was mostly around Lake Washington and Madison Valley that the rich came. Since about the early 1980s Seattle and other nearby cities have been where people move from other states/countries. Among my co-workers none is a native of Seattle, one is from Moses Lake, the others are from California (5 of us), Atlanta, Chicago, Alaska, Vietnam, India China, Brazil and Nigeria.

[87112]

What is going to happen to the light rail. When it was built the design was to bring people Downtown to work. Thats not going well. It is currently riding in the red a lot.

The only time I see it busy is Hawk games and people going to the airport.

[Hemlock140]

Like the Metro bus and Sound Transit Express buses, there will have to be taxes or big fare increases. We are all paying through the nose for the light rail expansion, with our annual vehicle registration, and sales tax, but most of us will never use it. Besides the percentage of people working from home, those going to Seattle for work are avoiding transit due to the crime and drug use. Pre-Covid I took the bus every day, and never saw any crime from Issaquah Transit Center to Westlake and back, but then it was an interesting walk to/from the office with the homeless and drug deals going on. Since going back to the office two days a week I drive, I'm not interested in dealing with the problems on the bus as well as on the mile walk. When I pass any bus on I90 these days, it's empty except for maybe 2-3 people, most articulated buses. I still get alerts from Sound and Metro and every day they cancel several routes due to lack of drivers, and delays on the light rail for various reasons.

[Ruth4Truth]

Back when many of the downtown office building were built, during a building boom in the 80's, they stood mostly empty for years after completion. The demand for all that office space didn't exist at the time. I don't remember exactly what stimulated the boom; something to do with low interest rates for office building construction drew investors in. Rental rates dropped low to attract tenants, but still it was a struggle to fill the buildings. The same thing happened when the World Trade Center in NYC was built; no one wanted to rent there, and it remained empty for years.

The market economy's supply-and-demand principle gets thrown off track by the Fed setting interest rates, bank policies favoring certain sectors at any given time, REIT's stampeding herd-like into whatever sector they become temporarily infatuated with: shopping malls, office buildings, then apartment complexes, later--storage facilities, etc., and over-investing in those sectors, resulting in gluts of rental space.

Downtown did come into some popularity at some point as a residential area, when a few condos were built with views of the Sound, but I don't know if many families were among the residents. It would be interesting to find out who occupies those condos now.

[Transmition]

You're benefiting from the light rail even if you aren't using it yourself. Less pollution and more available parking, on top of fewer cars taking up space on the roads themselves. In theory, it will push workers further out of Seattle, making housing in the city more affordable. And workers who commute in are driving to the stops outside the city and taking the rail the rest of the way. When the station at Lynnwood opens it will really rocket up and take some pressure off the Northgate park and ride. There is a weird obsession with certain types of government services being seen as having to make a profit or at least break even, which is just plain nonsense. No one ever demands that an extra lane on the freeway make a profit, or the park make a profit. As soon as there is an option for it to subsidize itself with tickets, suddenly it is expected to fully fund itself forever.

I think we are still in the discovery phase for what will happen with offices downtown. The area is still very attractive for businesses hiring young people who like city life, and work from home hasn't lingered as much as everyone hoped it would.

[xPlorer48]

Originally Posted by Hemlock140

Actually, skid row originated in Seattle when in the early day logs were skidded down the slopes from what is now downtown to the waterfront for shipping.

It was mostly around Lake Washington and Madison Valley that the rich came. Since about the early 1980s Seattle and other nearby cities have been where people move from other states/countries. Among my co-workers none is a native of Seattle, one is from Moses Lake, the others are from California (5 of us), Atlanta, Chicago, Alaska, Vietnam, India China, Brazil and Nigeria.

My grandmother was born in Green Lake in 1905. She would tell us about how her older relatives who owned businesses, including a “house of ill repute” on Yesler Way would roll the loggers when they came to town on the weekends fresh with cash. I never had this verified but she was not one to fabricate stories. Her uncles and grandfather were prominent citizens in Seattle’s early history and built the ill-fated Rainier hotel after the Seattle fire: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/F...OHAI_3468).jpg

[CrazyDonkey]

Originally Posted by 87112

What is going to happen to the light rail. When it was built the design was to bring people Downtown to work. Thats not going well. It is currently riding in the red a lot.

The only time I see it busy is Hawk games and people going to the airport.

If an apartment glut occurs, then rents could come down, attracting more middle-income earners, so density within the urban areas need not be impacted and could even increase. Lower business activity and real-estate values Downtown might even re-attract creatives (writers, artists, musicians, actors, dancers, etc.) to move back in.

We do need to get the drug users, wackos, and other fare-refusers out of the system for it to be financially viable and enable continued expansion. (Fare subsidies for seniors, youths, disabled, and the poor can increase equity while ensuring that the system isn't starved of operating funds.) At minimum, we could require that people "tap-in" or buy tickets to gain access to station platforms, where practicable.