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China now imports more oil than the United States does, an astonishing reversal that has taken place in less than ten years. That may well have disastrous consequences for the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency. China and India are sucking up every spare barrel they can find on the market.
Unfortunately for that scenario, oil is priced at the margin -- meaning the most expensive barrel sets the price for all the others. That's why oil companies can get $100 a barrel for oil from older wells that produce for less than $10 a barrel. And fracked oil is not cheap. Drillers currently need at least $75-$80 oil to make the deal profitable to investors and the cost is rising by 10.9 percent a year, and tar sands oil similarly requires high prices (I've heard as high at $90 now) to be worth producing. So if oil prices drop as low as you hope -- $1.50 gasoline would need oil at ~$30 a barrel -- a lot of wells would be capped and a lot of drill rigs would stand idle. Which would push the price back up again almost immediately.
Gail the Actuary has a pretty good analysis of the financial situation for the oil industry here. I don't completely agree with her, but she makes some excellent points.
Good points, but don't discount future technological developments that may make fracking and tar sand extraction cheaper.
10 or 15 years ago no one even thought fracking would become the success that it is, until people like Hamm figured out how to make it work. Who knows how much more upside there is to this technology.
With oil prices as they have been, and with our realization of the limits to oil supplies, I think we would be idiots not to fracture wells. A lot of old wells were thought to be played out, then capped, without having utilized fracturing technology. They cannot be revisited, and yet a lot of potential was lost in those wells.
In the case of shale oil, yes the fractured wells generally play out after a year or so, but there are wells that are fifty years old which have utilized fracturing, and still produce.
With oil prices as they have been, and with our realization of the limits to oil supplies, I think we would be idiots not to fracture wells. A lot of old wells were thought to be played out, then capped, without having utilized fracturing technology. They cannot be revisited, and yet a lot of potential was lost in those wells.
In the case of shale oil, yes the fractured wells generally play out after a year or so, but there are wells that are fifty years old which have utilized fracturing, and still produce.
I think we are idiots not to have massive R&D investments in better and cleaner methods of producing energy. I think we are idiots for going into misguided wars that spend trillions of dollars and cost hundreds of thousands of lives to enrich a few corporations instead of spending that money to give a massive tax break to citizens of this country to put solar panels on their roofs and lessen the reliance on fossil fuels.
Let's face it - this country does not want (REALLY want) a green and sustainable and independent energy source.
Good points, but don't discount future technological developments that may make fracking and tar sand extraction cheaper.
10 or 15 years ago no one even thought fracking would become the success that it is, until people like Hamm figured out how to make it work. Who knows how much more upside there is to this technology.
Fracking isn't new. It's been around for decades. The difference is that the price of oil -- and the need for it -- increased to the point where it became attractive to investors. Lower price means lower or no interest.
I think we are idiots not to have massive R&D investments in better and cleaner methods of producing energy. I think we are idiots for going into misguided wars that spend trillions of dollars and cost hundreds of thousands of lives to enrich a few corporations instead of spending that money to give a massive tax break to citizens of this country to put solar panels on their roofs and lessen the reliance on fossil fuels.
Let's face it - this country does not want (REALLY want) a green and sustainable and independent energy source.
I think we are idiots to put all of our eggs into one basket, at this point. Our renewable energy technology is still in its infancy and cannot meet our needs.
My point is simply that if we are going to drill for oil, then fracturing makes sense, to maximize the productivity from any well.
I think we are idiots not to have massive R&D investments in better and cleaner methods of producing energy.
Billions upon billions of dollars have been invested in such R&D. There have been a lot of developments; however, some obstacles, such as the efficiency rate of solar panels, may never be overcome.
Out of curiosity, is your home on either solar or wind?
I'm not asking to be snarky, I'm just wanting to point out that if your not willing to make such an investment, why do you believe companies should make one with the money of investors who aren't looking to be social champions but to assemble a nest egg for retirement.
I've purchased stocks in three different companies working on solar technology, one I can remember off the top of my head is XSUN. Each one were big losers for me, but I invested an almost token amount hoping that it might take off. I'd never consider putting a significant amount of my 401K in one; therefore, I wouldn't want any oil company that I invested in to steer off in such a direction.
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Originally Posted by LordyLordy
I think we are idiots for going into misguided wars that spend trillions of dollars and cost hundreds of thousands of lives to enrich a few corporations instead of spending
No argument from me. I'm sick of shipping American blood and money overseas. Unless a country is a direct threat to us or a true ally, they can pretty much do as they please. We shouldn't be the police of the world.
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Originally Posted by LordyLordy
that money to give a massive tax break to citizens of this country to put solar panels on their roofs and lessen the reliance on fossil fuels.
I'm all for this. I also feel that we should give tax breaks to home builders for installing solar and geothermal systems.
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Originally Posted by LordyLordy
Let's face it - this country does not want (REALLY want) a green and sustainable and independent energy source.
I disagree. I researched and researched how I could do affordable solar at my house, and it just isn't possible. I live where there are essentially only federal government tax incentives; therefore, my payback on investment is nearly 20 years. One of my "fears" is that I go and spend $25k with hardly any tax incentives and then 3 years down the road, my state or city gives a great incentive that isn't retroactive. I also "fear" that I invest $25k and 5 years later there is some great new technological breakthrough that increases the efficiency and drops the cost and the footprint while upping the power drastically.
And, I'll ask you again, did you want (really want) green energy enough that you have a significant investment in solar at your home?
Billions upon billions of dollars have been invested in such R&D. There have been a lot of developments; however, some obstacles, such as the efficiency rate of solar panels, may never be overcome.
Out of curiosity, is your home on either solar or wind?
Yes, self-installed.
Florida used to have a rebate program (I am not sure they do now) and coupled with federal tax credits it ended up making the solar install ridiculously affordable.
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Originally Posted by PedroMartinez
I'm not asking to be snarky, I'm just wanting to point out that if your not willing to make such an investment, why do you believe companies should make one with the money of investors who aren't looking to be social champions but to assemble a nest egg for retirement.
Yes, we agree on this. But that would all be a part of a comprehensive energy policy which, I believe, is being intentionally derailed by people who stand to make money now on oil and gas.
In addition, I fear a bigger issue is at play: because most of American jobs were exported overseas, effectively leaving a large layer of people with no opportunity, the oil and gas shale wagon is an appropriate "vent" for the pressure to escape. Without the money and jobs generated with his "dirty" and invasive industry, we would probably have a revolution on our hands. We are simply a few decades too late.
You can't mess with people's right to feed their families - this is why fracking is such an emotional debate. It is not about the science or about anything else.
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Originally Posted by PedroMartinez
I'm all for this. I also feel that we should give tax breaks to home builders for installing solar and geothermal systems.
In my books any tax break to anyone going green is OK.
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Originally Posted by PedroMartinez
I disagree. I researched and researched how I could do affordable solar at my house, and it just isn't possible. I live where there are essentially only federal government tax incentives; therefore, my payback on investment is nearly 20 years. One of my "fears" is that I go and spend $25k with hardly any tax incentives and then 3 years down the road, my state or city gives a great incentive that isn't retroactive. I also "fear" that I invest $25k and 5 years later there is some great new technological breakthrough that increases the efficiency and drops the cost and the footprint while upping the power drastically.
This is a valid fear. But if you go down that path, anything can happen in an sphere of life, making any investment you made questionable
I read recently that cities like Austin are moving towards encouraging people to go solar (via credits and paying for electricity produced) for a simple reason: it lessens the peak loads on their infrastructure. I am pretty sure a few more cities are doing this too.
I think the solar thing has been approached wrong in this country - we do not need huge solar producing arrays that then warrant transport of energy over distances. We do not need massive investments in solar companies (aside from R&D) - what we need is massive credits and incentives for ordinary people to solarize their homes.
Problem is, people here think automatically about making ridiculous profits and concentrating these profits in some kind of an enterprise (and inserting middlemen to middlemen) - nothing is done with a long-term motivation to just get things better and cleaner.
Last edited by LordyLordy; 03-12-2014 at 09:28 AM..
Billions upon billions of dollars have been invested in such R&D. There have been a lot of developments; however, some obstacles, such as the efficiency rate of solar panels, may never be overcome.
Part of the problem is the more efficent materials for photvoltaics like boron and germanium are horrendously toxic as well as expensive.
To make them affordable, you use the cheapest materials like silicon, which are also the least efficent. Very few panels are rated at more than 20% efficeent, and they are rated at 1 full sun which is the amount processed from the sun at high noon at the equator. Very few of us live at the equator, so when you are like me and live pretty far north, 47 degrees latitude, and for half of the year you have less than 12 hours of sunlight per day, your efficency goes right in the pot. You have to have systems 3 or 4 times as large as a house in Texas in order to generate the same amount of usable power.
Add to that our weather where you may not see the sun for days during a storm, well, solar is a nice thought, but not very practical here.
I've purchased stocks in three different companies working on solar technology, one I can remember off the top of my head is XSUN. Each one were big losers for me, but I invested an almost token amount hoping that it might take off. I'd never consider putting a significant amount of my 401K in one; therefore, I wouldn't want any oil company that I invested in to steer off in such a direction.
I have worked in the industry off and on since the early 1980's. The only money to be made comes in the form of grants from Washington.
For example, they are putting up wind farms all over my state. If the windmills weren't subsidized the cost per kilowatt hour would be over 18 cents, as opposed to hydro at less than 4 cents per KWH.
It isn't economically feasable without huge increases in cost to the consumer.
I'm all for this. I also feel that we should give tax breaks to home builders for installing solar and geothermal systems.
There are already a lot of tax incentives federally, and some states like mine have a lot of them for homebuilders or those that install systems. Doesn't cover the outlay of installation though.
I disagree. I researched and researched how I could do affordable solar at my house, and it just isn't possible. I live where there are essentially only federal government tax incentives; therefore, my payback on investment is nearly 20 years. One of my "fears" is that I go and spend $25k with hardly any tax incentives and then 3 years down the road, my state or city gives a great incentive that isn't retroactive. I also "fear" that I invest $25k and 5 years later there is some great new technological breakthrough that increases the efficiency and drops the cost and the footprint while upping the power drastically.
Exactly. If you are looking at an average power bill of $100-150 per month, but have to spend up to or above $50,000 dollars to put in a system, it will be a long time before you break even.
If you can devise a system that you can install yourself using cheap parts, the dynamic changes, but you better understand what you are doing.
In my case, for my cabin, I am installing a waterwheel generator for what little power I need up there. I can put it in for less than $3000, but I also have to create a dam to hold the water I need, which I can do as I already have the equipment, but if I had to hire it done it would probably run another $10-15K.
But by using old generators I already have, lumber I already have, and equipment I already have as well as gearing, I can make it work fairly cheaply and below the price it would cost to run a line up there at around $70,000.
In town though or where power lines already exist, the cost doesn't justify the return.
I like alternative power, and have designed several systems, but all the money for R&D is being dumped into solar and wind which are the most expensive with least return.
But that is where the push is so those of us with other ideas get to fund ourselves.
It's the way the policital system works, and it isn't efficent either. All those "green" lobbiests like Solyndra that give money to the proper candidates and reap huge grants and loans that they then default on.
Exactly. If you are looking at an average power bill of $100-150 per month, but have to spend up to or above $50,000 dollars to put in a system, it will be a long time before you break even.
That's why the system should be subsidized by tax credits and other incentives. That way we all get to install it. The $2 trillion we spent in Iraq fighting uncle Dick's and uncle Rummy's wars would go a long way in this country.
I will ignore the rest of the EMOTIONAL stuff in red
That's why the system should be subsidized by tax credits and other incentives. That way we all get to install it. The $2 trillion we spent in Iraq fighting uncle Dick's and uncle Rummy's wars would go a long way in this country.
I will ignore the rest of the EMOTIONAL stuff in red
Whatever, you tend to ignore information and facts you don't agree with anyway.
I guess we could have invested the $14 trillion wasted on the war on poverty too....
Why don't you check out the Politics forum? You seem to have a lot more interest in politics than in Self Sufficency and Preparedness.
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