Normalcy Bias (farmer, panel, generator, mountains)

[ognend]

Originally Posted by Rabrrita

We don't, and yes they may very well be the trolls spouting only the doomsday philosophy causing normal discussion about preparedness and emergency planning to turn into nothing but their anti-government end of the world babble. But, since the decision is that so long as we express our Opinions and paint broad strokes when we discuss one group or another (aka stay away from saying a specific person is this or that), the differing OPINIONS will be allowed.

This forum is for the discussion of preparedness, emergency planning, self sufficiency, and survival in whatever degree it takes; not only for and exclusive to those preparing for the End of the World or against government.


And that is the crux of disagreement to many. At what point is preparing enough? Too much? Comical?

I work on the philosophy that yes the world may get invaded by a bunch of zombie terminator cyborgs that enslave us and in and attempt to turn us into food a small band of armed preppers break free and fight of 37th century technology with only a swiss army knife plus 4 cans of baked beans, returning us to a new society of peace love and harmony, but in the meantime, I would rather make 100% sure I'm prepared for that extended blackout we seem to get every winter for a week or more as well as the floods that comes right afterwards.

Let's take this thing called "Normalcy Bias", its become a sort of rally cry against those who people think are only depending on government to save them in an emergency. One side has altered the premise to mean if you asked a person why they are not prepared, their response will be "because government will be there for me". The actual meaning of normalcy bias is when a person has not recognized the emergency, or the possibility of the emergency. It's like the person who lives in a flood zone yet has taken no steps to be prepared for a flood. It's not always that they think government will provide, but often just because the danger is not part of their normal life so it never reaches a level of concern. Additionally, even as the dangers approaches, they are so preoccupied with their normal life they can;t even recognize the danger or thy just pretend its already being handled.

There are two other types of bias that exist in reference to emergency planning. Overreaction bias is when a person builds an ark because it may sprinkle next Tuesday. Even though everything indicates some mild or normal condition, they act as if its the end of the world. The second is the psychosis bias where the person is so wrapped up in their prediction of disaster that they lose touch with reality and start seeming catastrophe where none exist.

I'm not sure which is actually the most dangerous. Thoughts?

I agree with you.

We had historic flooding here twice in the last 6 months. It is not 100 year flood, it is more like 500 year flood event. Hundreds of homes were lost and a dozen or so lives. Most people had no flood insurance and had no idea or expectation of such an event. Most of them did NOT expect the government to help them out (and it did not really anyways). Who helped them was the rest of the people around them, from town. They banded together, local Ace Hardware became the point where people came every morning, brought donations, food, clothes, tools, so on and so on. FEMA was there - yes - they helped too but they did not take over the effort - they were there in a support capacity to local law enforcement, disaster recovery etc.

In the eyes of the 2-3 idiots on this forum, these folks were the unwashed/unprepared city idiots too buried into their Facebook accounts and cell phones to notice that there may be a 500 year flood coming. They were also the communists who expected FEMA to help them and did not want to do anything on their own - 'cause you know - they do not have brains of their own.

The same 2-3 idiots above keep repeating the stories of looting that apparently immediately happens after a disaster. Well, let me tell you - there was no looting. There were a few bad apples going around pretending to want to help in the cleanup but in fact hoping to find someone's jewelry or to price-gauge someone for a service that would ordinarily cost X dollars but they wanted 5xX dollars for the same service. After the initial day or two after the disaster, locals wisened up and starting organizing the help - only people who "checked out" were allowed, they had to wear armbands etc. and always be in a group where the group leader was a local who was known to everyone. You could not just "show up" and hope to start digging in the rubble or offering services.

In reality, at the end of the day - most of these folks who suffered were just - you know, folks. They may have had cans of beans, bags of rice, generators, gasoline, guns, ammo etc. etc. but the water took it all. After a few months - everything was cleaned up and life moved on. FEMA left and everything went back to normal - as normal as it can be for someone whose home was gone for good.

Most of the time the discussions on this forum are starting out with a crazy premise - "what would happen if the grid were to go away". Then the premise changes to "what would happen if the grid went away and we had no more spare parts". Then it goes to "what if the grid went away and we had no more spare parts and all the engineers were dead". Then it goes to.... Well, sh*t, them scenarios are as plausible as Martians coming to take over Earth or as "what would happen if all pianos on Earth decided to drop on everyone's heads from the 11th story in every city on Earth".

When you start questioning such scenarios and their plausibility - you get labeled as an idiot, FEMA lover (as if it is a bad thing to trust a government agency to do its job), a troll. a communist, you name it. When you accuse the other party of being a loonie toon or enjoying "doomer porn" - well, then you are also trying to derail the whole forum.

So, in essence, what is left is you have to tippy-toe around the topics, choose your words carefully and try not to disagree too much - for you know, Nor'eastah might call you a troll and ignore you.

[AK-Cathy]

I definitely do tip-toe around topics here and chose my words carefully. I think that's why I would welcome a forum split for those that do desire to talk about those things that I personally find unlikely. If they wish to indulge in worst case scenarios on a TEOTWAWKI sub-forum why would I care? I wouldn't.

Nice report on the flooding. Your description of events meets essentially what happens after tornadoes up here and I'd be willing to guess most smaller scale and mostly rural disaster scenarios.

[movintime]

I need to say that this is a very interesting thread topic to follow. So many varying ideals yet all on the same forum. It goes to show that folks here are really divided but I really think there's only one way -- & not being aware or prepared & saving for the day you're going to need it which is paramount -- has too few REALLY doing it. It seems so many folks are just babbling, & really not committed or dedicated to this idea of preparing. I hope I can even get much closer to where I want & need be prior, to a real big need to be there.

Ok, this is just a quick jump comment on this thread but just had to say I hope more people learn from this forum to do positive things -- rather than spend so much time bickering & wasting valued time you could prep with for the future.

I feel you need live about on 70% income monthly you get/make. Invest in gold or silver too, as cash will be useless if it all crashes. If you don't do any of this it'll be recipe for disaster. My sis makes far more than I & lives in S. Diego but pays exorbitant monthly apt rent, has a 2015 new car (way out of her needs/price range) etc. & travels too much. She is divorced w/ great job but having isn't the best at saving & heeding the need to do it (she thinks I'm just cheap). I make less, save more (% monthly of my income), buy less, live more frugal, etc. but I'm 10 yrs older so maybe it is why. She thinks my prepping ideas are nuts too but so be it, but she is 10 yrs younger so maybe the reason.

Ok, carry on discussing folks...

[rodentraiser]

Originally Posted by Happy in Wyoming

I don't care if you or anyone else prepares; it won't affect me. I don't view the S-S & P forum as a place for debate. I come here to exchange information with like-minded people just as I do on the gun forum, the collecting forum, and the various food fora.

You may wish (although I doubt it) to read some recent history. Gas shortages ended when Ronald Reagan was inaugurated as he eliminated both price controls and geographic allocations on gas. Not only were there no more gas shortages, but the price plummeted as well. There has been no gas rationing since World War II.

AIDS contaminated blood supplies before it was well understood. It was subsequently almost completely confined to male homosexuals and IV drug users.

Crime rates are going down and have been for years. Schools are far safer than they were in the past.

This country has never been a democracy; it is a republic.

Live as you wish; think as you wish. Your welfare isn't my concern. I don't worry about your ignorance of the past; I find it rather amusing.

Be amused all you like.

I don't know where you were living, but I was in California in 1979 and yes, we had gas rationing. Crime rates were not going down in the 80s. They didn't start to go down until the early 90s and all you have to do is look at a chart on crime reports to see that. It was the 80s I was talking about.

Reagan may have solved the gas shortages, but he sure dropped the ball on HIV and AIDS. He denied for years that it could be passed through having sex and in those years, we lost control of the epidemic. There was a time when you could count the number of AIDS patients on one hand here in the US. Because of Reagan refusing to talk about it and not allowing C. Everett Koop to give a statement, there was a lot of misunderstanding and panic about HIV and AIDS. I don't suppose you remember the controversy about Ryan White, who, by the way, was not an IV drug user or a homosexual, but instead a young hemophiliac.

I'm not saying preparers are crazy and paranoid. If I could afford it, I'd have my car fixed up so I could live in it for a few weeks. That's not because I think the end of the world is coming, but I've been through both the Loma Prieta and the Nisqually earthquakes and with all the natural disasters around, I think people need to be prepared to live without electricity and heat for a while if they need to.

[Nor'Eastah]

There are people who come here to post from all over C-D forum. They have zero idea what SS&P is all about. They see that little box on the right that says, "Active threads around the forum" and see one over here...who knows? It might be school vacation or a holiday, and some kid decides to have some fun.

So we get some far-out thread about zombies, cannibals, space aliens, what-have-you. Now, I don't believe in zombies, have never met a cannibal, and aside from the occasional UFO, I see no space aliens. Can we stop these kids/adults, who are out to have a good time, from posting here? No. The thread gets mixed up with the others on farming, living in vans, and making bio-fuels.

So, along come the "weather preparedness" crowd, who look at the zombie or cannibal thread, and decide that all of the regulars here are kooks engaging in something called "doomer porn" and clucking their tongues, proceed to scold us for being whack jobs. Well, let me tell you a little about this forum.

There are perfectly sane posters here who prepare for much more than bad weather. Some of you don't consider this "reasonable" or "sensible". OK, so what? There are some very conservative folks here who prefer not to depend on the government for anything --not even, apparently --pensions that are due them for 35 years of work! Some take a good deal of pride in being able to do things for themselves, rather than hire it out. To them, it is not a matter of "how much money would they make by hiring day labor vs foregoing their usual income". It's about adding to their skillsets, or taking pride in a job done just as they want it.

I am convinced that a lot of the bad vibes here come from nosy people insisting that everyone here lay out their entire rationale for feeling the way they do, and wanting to know all the particulars of the preparations for such. Some people cite OP SEC reasons for not discussing it, and get all hell and fury thrown at them.

Look, those of us who frequent this forum have a right to prepare, or not to prepare, or live as self-sufficiently as possible, or to not do so, as we please. And we have a right to come here to discuss it. This is our space. If you don't think we're beihg sensible (in your estimation), so what? This is the place where people come to discuss these things, without heckling from the peanut gallery.

Some people don't like being put on Ignore. I wish more people would put ME on
Ignore! But if you do find yourself being put on Ignore, stop and think about why that may be. If member X is on Ignore, but member Y is not, what might that tell you about member X? Is this really a matter of "ganging up" on somebody, or might it be a matter of member X being a disruptive, obnoxious boor?

We all have to choose our battles in life. I come here to learn, to share, to enjoy. This forum is not where I choose to do battle. If you force me to, I will get you out of my face the only way I can, here - by ignoring you. Have a good evening.

[MTSilvertip]

Well said Nor'Eastah.

[Happy in Wyoming]

Originally Posted by ognend

.
In the eyes of the 2-3 idiots on this forum, these folks were the unwashed/unprepared city idiots too buried into their Facebook accounts and cell phones to notice that there may be a 500 year flood coming. They were also the communists who expected FEMA to help them and did not want to do anything on their own - 'cause you know - they do not have brains of their own.

The same 2-3 idiots above keep repeating the stories of looting that apparently immediately happens after a disaster. Well, let me tell you - there was no looting. There were a few bad apples going around pretending to want to help in the cleanup but in fact hoping to find someone's jewelry or to price-gauge someone for a service that would ordinarily cost X dollars but they wanted 5xX dollars for the same service. After the initial day or two after the disaster, locals wisened up and starting organizing the help - only people who "checked out" were allowed, they had to wear armbands etc. and always be in a group where the group leader was a local who was known to everyone. You could not just "show up" and hope to start digging in the rubble or offering services.
.

I've continually expressed my view that cities will continue to explode in racial violence.

No one would expect looting where you live. You don't have the demographics of New Orleans, Chicago, Los Angeles, or a host of other large cities with certain minorities in large numbers.

You moved to your safe spot just as other survivalists have. It's called White flight.

[DutchessCottonPuff]

Well . I was again born and raised on a ranch but live in a huge city so the last thing I would do would be to go to a rescue center,
I just have better things to do with my life than continually prepare for total disaster. I would never say anything bad about a prepper .. thats just their thing . Not mine.
I'm not in denial , just a realist for my own situation . I've been through F-5 tornadoes Hurricanes Celia and Katrina and many more back in the south, my house exploding from a lightning strike and some serious life threatening medical issues. We all have to go sometime and at this point trying to just live life to the fullest.

Also I've never seen a space alien either ( to the poster that mentioned it ) but I DO have a once very rational friend who found God and now actually believes in a zombie apocalypse. Now THAT is crazy.

[bigpaul]

I do not believe in zombies, cannibals or space aliens, what I do believe in is being prepared for whatever is coming, be that natural or man made.
in some peoples eyes that makes me a kook, or a "doomer", so be it, but at least I am prepared for all eventualities no matter how small some people think those possibilities are, just because something hasn't happen for a long time or hasn't happened before dosent mean it will never happen, I rule nothing out.
there are too many people on this sub forum who are too fond of pointing fingers at other posters just because they do not share their views, we are each different in our own ways, I think the world would be a lesser place if we all believed the same, like a load of pre programmed robots, but that's just my personal opinion.

[AK-Cathy]

Thank you Nor'eastah,

You said it better than I did. I get the obvious pot stirrers posting about zombies and space aliens. (Far less so the folks advocating murder.) The teenagers, the drunks. What I don't get is people that don't believe in preparing for anything or just the FEMA 3-5 day thing regularly coming into this forum to heckle folks that are doing something more comprehensive regardless whether they think it sensical or not.

Bottom line: Why do some regulars feel it necessary to come here to cast aspersions on people that are practicing or attempting to practice the very first premise of this forum? I don't for example go to the parenting forum because I don't have anything worthwhile to add and because I would be in opposition to much of the over emphasis on physical appearance I just don't visit the Fitness forum. I never go to the Religion forum, rarely the Beauty forum with the exception of a poll that I happen to catch from the general topics page from year to year. I have nothing to add to those conversations and my opposition to the "overboard" nature of the fringe elements of those forums I would become frustrated with those people that I consider irrational and even mentally unbalanced in that area of their life. Even so, their imbalance, ruined faces, religious zeal is none of my business nor my problem to solve.

So why are skeptical people here trying to solve the problem of people creating homesteads or storing buckets of grain in their basement? Other than waste, which frankly I abhor, what's the harm in it? I guess that says more about the anti's that come visit here than it might say about even the most ardent bunker inhabiting poster here. That is why I really would advocate a forum split. Creating a TEOTWAWKI type of forum may deflect the resident skeptics to another more extreme environment and let us farmers and advocates of gaining skills, labor and a job well done alone. I like my life. I have quality of life that is well rounded, one foot in the city and commerce, another on our homestead that we are developing. I don't cast aspersions on people living in a loft in a great city. In another time or another life I might be doing that, nor do I care if someone lives far away from anyone in the woods or mountains. I'm not well suited to that life but to each his/her own.

I can only think that there might be an agenda behind disrupting this forum. People that don't need a handout or that aren't on the dole are harder to control so that's my "delusion" of the day. Feel free to ignore it. Like MT I just want to be left as alone as I can be by government officials and anyone else who frankly might not have my best interests in mind that might want or be in a position to dictate to me as a peaceful law abiding citizen how I should live my life. Like Nor said I am planning for the day when our pensions are defunded, raided, adjusted or rolled into the overburdened Social Security to help pay the the nation's bills and we will have to live on half or less than we are at present. Frankly I hope one day fairly soon to not have to need them. We are getting there. I want to have choices between being indigent, dependent and a bullet and why would anyone care to rebut that is beyond me. FWIW.