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Old 10-10-2019, 10:51 PM
 
Location: PRC
6,948 posts, read 6,874,954 times
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I am interested in learning what happens in a major SHTF scenario. For example how long city people will probably last (<12 weeks?) and what are the stages a disaster (and people caught up in that) will go through leading to a complete breakdown of services, government, etc. Obviously something which destroys computers and communications in an area will have a huge impact on the ability of services to help the population.

I think it must be more than just the academic subject of Disaster Management(DM) because at that stage, and where the disaster is really severe, the infrastructure which allows governments to organise a DM program will probably have been destroyed and it will be every person for himself.

Also, I am not sure this is really about self-sufficiency and preparedness unless you consider preparedness in understanding what phases a disaster goes through and how folks might react or how the breakdown of society will evolve.

Anyway, I realise this is a huge topic and can depend on the severity and what kind of catastrophe has befallen us, however I have to start somewhere and so can anyone tell me please what subject I should be looking up or what resources, books etc are available or that you may have come across in your prepping journey?
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Old 10-10-2019, 11:04 PM
 
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Start slow, decide what level you want to prepare for...overall, remember knowledge and skill will beat equipment and supplies every time!


I'd suggest looking into disasters from storms first, like Katrina..then move along onto longer lasting issues like economic collapse on into societal/government breakdowns like Venezuela and other fallen countries, then into foriegn invasions, war and occupation.


This will give you insight into what you may need...and also realise that equipment and supplies are great for short-term but not for long-term.
The further out an event lasts the more your own knowledge and skills will be of value.
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Old 10-11-2019, 01:15 PM
 
Location: Puna, Hawaii
4,412 posts, read 4,904,348 times
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I think the concept of stockpiling supplies comes from the cold war concept that survivors will live in underground bunkers without access to anything outside the bunker. Then when the nuclear winter had passed people would come out of their bomb shelters and would scavenge things until they died ten years later from radiation poisoning.

But that is just one scenario out of millions. While nobody knows what scenario is going to unfold I subscribe to the idea that my great grandparents lived without the benefits of any modern technologies, including electricity, because they had been taught generations of knowledge that allowed them to exist mostly on what they could produce or harvest from the land around them. Whatever scenario is going to play out, the people who live day-to-day aren't going to last long. The ones that have stuff stockpiled will last longer. The ones who have stuff stockpiled, but don't necessarily need it, could last indefinitely. Like most people who consider themselves to be woken up, we have a supply of food but I'm not sure we would actually need it. But if I've eaten nothing but pumpkins, bananas, eggs, coconuts, breadfruit, goat yogurt, tree collards, etc and the occasional chicken for weeks a Mountain House Beef Stroganoff or whatever every now and then is going to be like eating at a 4-star restaurant. Or maybe I get the flu and just need effortless food for awhile. Or the neighbor has a bumper mac nut harvest and wants to trade some nuts for MH pork fried rice.

There are a lot of homesteading channels on youtube. A lot of people who are prepared for a SHTF scenario aren't doing it because they think "the big one" is coming, they do it because being self sufficient is a fun and rewarding lifestyle. Or hobby.

If anybody wants to read a great real-life survivor's story that doesn't involve cannibalism, check out Mawson's Will. Being in Antarctica there wasn't much to harvest from his surroundings but Mawson defied all odds and it was his skills and knowledge that allowed him to (barely) survive the unsurvivable.

https://www.amazon.com/Mawsons-Will-...language=en_US

p.s. borrow a free copy from the library- don't get the kindle version (just read the reviews of how bad the kindle version is)

Last edited by terracore; 10-11-2019 at 01:34 PM..
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Old 10-11-2019, 05:32 PM
 
Location: Where the mountains touch the sky
6,756 posts, read 8,581,124 times
Reputation: 14969
Quote:
Originally Posted by ocpaul20 View Post
I am interested in learning what happens in a major SHTF scenario. For example how long city people will probably last (<12 weeks?) and what are the stages a disaster (and people caught up in that) will go through leading to a complete breakdown of services, government, etc. Obviously something which destroys computers and communications in an area will have a huge impact on the ability of services to help the population.

I think it must be more than just the academic subject of Disaster Management(DM) because at that stage, and where the disaster is really severe, the infrastructure which allows governments to organise a DM program will probably have been destroyed and it will be every person for himself.

Also, I am not sure this is really about self-sufficiency and preparedness unless you consider preparedness in understanding what phases a disaster goes through and how folks might react or how the breakdown of society will evolve.

Anyway, I realise this is a huge topic and can depend on the severity and what kind of catastrophe has befallen us, however I have to start somewhere and so can anyone tell me please what subject I should be looking up or what resources, books etc are available or that you may have come across in your prepping journey?
For a good example of SHTF just look to the fires in California last year. Completely destroyed the town of Paradise.
Katrina or Sandy can give you material to think about too

Those are natural disasters and pretty bad, but localized. Other areas were able to provide support. What if the disaster was economic? Or more widespread like an electromagnetic storm that knocks out communication, power and transportation?

You look at your own situation, what disaster, natural or man made, poses the greatest threat to you?
Once you make that determination you can start to make your preparations.

Got to start somewhere.

Good luck.
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Old 10-11-2019, 10:10 PM
 
1,687 posts, read 1,282,695 times
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A Survival Q & A: Living Through SHTF In the Middle of A War Zone

I found this to be relevant.
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Old 10-12-2019, 10:55 AM
 
Location: northern Alabama
1,085 posts, read 1,274,703 times
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I went thru Hurricane Katrina. Katrina wasn't my first rodeo. I also went thru Hurricane Betsy (1965) and Hurricane Camille (1969). Going thu a catastrophe is a great learning experience. Unfortunately, the test is given first (going thru it), then the learning part.

Going thru a natural disaster can teach anyone about panic. Hurricanes are a combination of wind, water and tornadoes. During the storm, it sounds like the world is coming to an end. Then there is the shock of seeing the damage afterwards.

Watching the reactions of other people can be terrifying. Some people simply go nuts - even if only for a little while. I think some of the looting during Katrina was done by normally sane people who went a little crazy. There were also people who simply could not cope. They literally sat down and waited for someone to tell them what to do. Then, there were people who felt that the normal rules of civilization did not apply post catastrophe. These are the people that are the most dangerous. I think most of them were not wired correctly before the catastrophe.

My advice, prepare for the worst that can happen in your area, but be aware that there may be moments when you lose control, if only temporarily, should a disaster hit.

I found it helpful to have other people around me to help me stay balanced. We all went a little off the charts during Katrina, but fortunately we didn't all do it at the same time.

A number of books have been written by disaster survivors. Look for them at your local library.
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Old 10-13-2019, 06:49 AM
 
2,899 posts, read 1,869,150 times
Reputation: 6174
Quote:
Originally Posted by ocpaul20 View Post
I am interested in learning what happens in a major SHTF scenario. For example how long city people will probably last (<12 weeks?) and what are the stages a disaster (and people caught up in that) will go through leading to a complete breakdown of services, government, etc. Obviously something which destroys computers and communications in an area will have a huge impact on the ability of services to help the population.

I think it must be more than just the academic subject of Disaster Management(DM) because at that stage, and where the disaster is really severe, the infrastructure which allows governments to organise a DM program will probably have been destroyed and it will be every person for himself.

Also, I am not sure this is really about self-sufficiency and preparedness unless you consider preparedness in understanding what phases a disaster goes through and how folks might react or how the breakdown of society will evolve.

Anyway, I realise this is a huge topic and can depend on the severity and what kind of catastrophe has befallen us, however I have to start somewhere and so can anyone tell me please what subject I should be looking up or what resources, books etc are available or that you may have come across in your prepping journey?
Read Dr. William Forstchen "one second after" it's fictional but we'll researched and with a good understanding on society and infrastructure.


https://www.amazon.com/Second-After-...=one+se&sr=8-2

It will definitely give you some things to consider
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Old 10-14-2019, 12:53 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
15,293 posts, read 17,684,015 times
Reputation: 25236
Disaster prep starts with your lifestyle. Don't put yourself in the crosshairs. Do you live in a flood zone? Not wise. Do you live in a high rise? If you are on the 14th floor and the power goes out, you not only will have a tough walk to get home, you will have no water without the booster pumps in the basement. That means the fire sprinklers won't work either, and the whole building will be full of people burning candles.

The thing about cities dying is mostly crap. 60% of the population survived the Battle of Stalingrad, with the German Army doing its best to destroy the city. Disaster relief efforts will be concentrated in cities. That's where the airports are, and where the highways and rivers go. Cities were sited in the 18th and 19th century by access to shipping. It may not be pleasant, but you would live through just about anything in a city. Penthouse dwellers would just have to move to a cardboard box in an alley.

The advantage of rural living is that you are not dependent on what some bureaucrat 1000 miles away thinks you need. The disadvantage is that rural areas are universally ignored in a disaster. There aren't enough rural people to count, and they generally don't need the help anyway. You run your own water and sewer system, and generally have quite a bit of food on hand because running to the store is such a PITA.

19th century technology functions quite well without electricity or fuel, and some 20th century tech is a great addition. You may have a windmill to pump water into a water tower for domestic use. Add a solar water heater and you have hot and cold running water. Some people like to add PV panels, but they really aren't necessary. A wood stove is a local energy utility that will let you cook and keep you warm. If you live in an area that in uninhabitable without AC, you might pick a house with a basement. The best idea is just to not live where external inputs are necessary.

Try a dry run. Take a vacation from work, shut off the main breaker on your electricity, and see how you do. If you haven't gone through it, I guarantee it will be educational. Take notes, then fix the problems you encounter.
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Old 10-14-2019, 01:10 PM
 
1,687 posts, read 1,282,695 times
Reputation: 2731
A Survival Q & A: Living Through SHTF In the Middle of A War Zone

This is from a gentleman from Bosnia named Selco, during the siege of Sarajevo I believe in the 1990s.

He's lived through the real mess.

People who lived through Katrina, Bosnia, Haiti, or other Extended Emrgency (EE) situations; listen to them first over Canadian Prepper. ..not that he's bad but, he's book smart, actual survivors are street smart, and street smart is more useful.
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Old 10-14-2019, 06:45 PM
 
Location: Puna, Hawaii
4,412 posts, read 4,904,348 times
Reputation: 8042
"Take a vacation from work, shut off the main breaker on your electricity, and see how you do."


I would add, don't go to the store or receive any other "external inputs" to that. During the prepcation.
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