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So let’s list all the issues with this truck.
1) cost. Apparently the battery alone at today’s prices would be about $200k. Tesla is listing this thing at $180k, so either they’re banking on a breakthrough, or they’re planning and using this truck to file for bankruptcy. https://www.wired.com/2017/06/elon-m...truck-battery/
2) recharge times. The claimed 30 minute charge time would require a mega charger that isn’t invented yet that would consume 4000 homes worth of energy Tesla's Semi-Truck Would Require Energy Of 4,000 Homes To Recharge | Zero Hedge
Elon claims this will be with solar and batteries which basically means you’re charging one battery from another battery. So essentially roll the cost of the stations batteries in with the truck’s batteries.
3) station locations. Assuming 1000 trucks get sold, but aren’t located in the same place or follow the same routes, the entire US interstate system will need mega chargers spaced 500 miles apart to accommodate a tiny fraction of the trucking market. I honestly cannot think of a worse business model. They will actually need to be spaced closer due to battery age and range limitations under less than ideal circumstances.
4) the central seating position. This makes perfect sense if you drive down the center of the highway, but otherwise is terrible. It’s obvious Tesla was just kinda making it as they went along.
There is absolutely no upside to this side project.
Ontario Government is offering a fairly hefty tax break for purchasing an electric semi. Hard to tell the exact amount but people crunching the numbers were thinking $18-20K.
A moderately big chunk of the early Tesla Semi orders have come from Canada.
The expected price of the Tesla will be $150,000 for the 300 mile battery pack and $200,000 for the 500 mile battery. I'll bet you can't guess where all of these trucks are being bought and expect to see usage. The cash strapped Kalifornian who, if it costs a dime to crap would have to vomit they are so broke, are the ones that are going to fund the purchase. How you ask? For every zero emissions Class 8 truck like these mentioned, Kalifornia will write the buyer a voucher for $110,000.00. So the actual cost of the trucks is 40 grand for the 300 mile unit and 90 grand for the 500 mile unit. What next, some other state going to come up and make all of the payments on the rigs? Talk about subsides, this is close to criminal. But apparently kalifornains love it since they seem to re-elect the same whackos every year.
That's the "competitor" I linked before. If Tesla meets their price points, this thing is DOA.
The problem is Tesla’s price points and claims are BS. As usual they have no intention of actually delivering anything close to that. It’s just a way to get free loans in the form of deposits hoping to ride this thing out.
If Tesla does sell their trucks at their stated price point, then it will cease to exist because they would lose money on every truck not to mention the non existent mega chargers.
Nobody can actually take Tesla seriously anymore.
A lot of truck companies are taking Tesla semi seriously. Nikola might be a player in market that is over 500 miles. (About 20% of routes). But they have some big hurdles to jump. Their trucks are incredibly expensive, and there is almost no infrastructure in place for fuel cells.
Based on conjecture by Electrek web site....
As predicted, we are also seeing mainly companies with captive truck fleets operated within their own distribution networks buying the trucks, like PepsiCo, Wal-Mart, Budweiser, instead of freight companies.
It should be easier for those companies to make the transition to electric trucks by deploying charging infrastructure into their distribution networks instead of having to charge on the road or deal with charging at customers like a freight company would.
So what Electrek is saying is that it seems these companies are planning to charge up at "home" overnight. That means they don't need MegaChargers. It also means they don't get the guaranteed .07 kw price, but charging all the trucks with off-peak rates might be less.
One thing I think is coming for both the electric trucks and fuel cell trucks, is that refueling will be a scheduled event, rather than an ad-hoc one. Almost like a commercial airliner has to have a "slot" to land at a busy airport.
A lot of truck companies are taking Tesla semi seriously. Nikola might be a player in market that is over 500 miles. (About 20% of routes). But they have some big hurdles to jump. Their trucks are incredibly expensive, and there is almost no infrastructure in place for fuel cells.
Based on conjecture by Electrek web site....
As predicted, we are also seeing mainly companies with captive truck fleets operated within their own distribution networks buying the trucks, like PepsiCo, Wal-Mart, Budweiser, instead of freight companies.
It should be easier for those companies to make the transition to electric trucks by deploying charging infrastructure into their distribution networks instead of having to charge on the road or deal with charging at customers like a freight company would.
So what Electrek is saying is that it seems these companies are planning to charge up at "home" overnight. That means they don't need MegaChargers. It also means they don't get the guaranteed .07 kw price, but charging all the trucks with off-peak rates might be less.
One thing I think is coming for both the electric trucks and fuel cell trucks, is that refueling will be a scheduled event, rather than an ad-hoc one. Almost like a commercial airliner has to have a "slot" to land at a busy airport.
The key difference between Tesla and everybody else, is Tesla is making up unrealistic numbers that they pulled out of thin air and everybody else is realistic in range and cost. There’s no way Tesla’s truck is only $180k with a 500 mile range and there’s no way Tesla’s solar powered mega chargers are going to make electricity for $.07 a kWh unless they plan taking huge losses to gain market share befor going bankrupt. Elon’s track record of telling the truth is too poor to take him seriously. There’s only 2 weeks left of 2017 and that autonomous cross country trip he promised this year hasn’t happened. Neither did the Model 3 ramp up, solar roofs aren’t doing anything, battery swap stations got canceled, very few Superchargers are actually solar powered, solar city is pretty much shuttered, and autopilot turned out to be nothing more than a level 2 autonomous system with no restraints.
What competitors are taking seriously is not Tesla, but the market itself. If countries are going to pass laws to restrict diesels, then a new market has been created that they are attempting to get a slice of.
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