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Old 07-15-2020, 09:50 PM
 
Location: Saint Johns, FL
2,343 posts, read 2,685,421 times
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Troy Teslike who estimates Tesla sales as his "thing" came out with his first estimate for Q3.

142,000 units. Without doing actual research I suspect that would be a record. Details of his work are now behind a Patreon wall.
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Old 07-16-2020, 09:27 AM
 
1,229 posts, read 1,064,063 times
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142k looks like a record. Troy Teslike's forecasts have been much more accurate than mine.
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Old 07-25-2020, 09:53 PM
 
Location: In the heights
37,251 posts, read 39,538,577 times
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I think that’s a fairly reasonable upper limit.
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Old 07-31-2020, 04:19 PM
 
Location: Cypress, CA
936 posts, read 2,088,159 times
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Tesla June 2020 sales in China is 15k. If they can keep this pace for July to August, that is 45k cars. That leaves under 100k cars for US/Europe and other countries. I think Tesla will be able to do 142k easily especially with the Model Y production increase.
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Old 09-03-2020, 09:21 PM
 
Location: Saint Johns, FL
2,343 posts, read 2,685,421 times
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Latest Troy Teslike estimate is 140,000
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Old 09-30-2020, 11:45 PM
 
Location: Saint Johns, FL
2,343 posts, read 2,685,421 times
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His final number is 143,051.

His past accuracy

My accuracy:
• Q3 2019: 96.1%
• Q4 2019: 96.7%
• Q1 2020: 93.9%
• Q2 2020: 98.6%
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Old 10-01-2020, 12:46 PM
 
Location: NYC
20,550 posts, read 17,751,772 times
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Once Tesla announces a $25k hatchback it will double or even triple sales. VW and Honda will need to up their ante soon. They will be most affected by a Tesla hatchback. That will kill the eGolf and Civic sales. I wouldn’t mind trading my Model 3 DM for a Tesla performance hatchback that can beat any ICE hot hatch.
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Old 10-02-2020, 06:59 AM
 
Location: Saint Johns, FL
2,343 posts, read 2,685,421 times
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Tesla's official number is 139,300. A new record quarter.
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Old 10-02-2020, 07:20 AM
 
6,469 posts, read 8,203,529 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vision33r View Post
Once Tesla announces a $25k hatchback it will double or even triple sales. VW and Honda will need to up their ante soon. They will be most affected by a Tesla hatchback. That will kill the eGolf and Civic sales. I wouldn’t mind trading my Model 3 DM for a Tesla performance hatchback that can beat any ICE hot hatch.
The e-Golf has been replaced by ID.3. VW has already sold 2,130 ID.3s in Norway since mid-September. VW will most likely be in the top 5 of 2020 before the end of October. A $25k Tesla will not be available anytime soon (1H 2023?).
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Old 10-15-2020, 11:16 AM
 
Location: NYC
20,550 posts, read 17,751,772 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmptrwlt View Post
The e-Golf has been replaced by ID.3. VW has already sold 2,130 ID.3s in Norway since mid-September. VW will most likely be in the top 5 of 2020 before the end of October. A $25k Tesla will not be available anytime soon (1H 2023?).
VW already sold like the 40k preorders. We'll see how well they are without typical VW issues.

I actually think VW design their cars to be flawed to keep their services shop in business. So many borderline unethical design decisions in their cars. I would never buy any of their big cars they are ticking time bombs if you decide to own. They have to put in some type of design flaw to get people back into their service dept for service. One of the reason for Tesla is not having to get ripped off by routine services. Just about every VW produced since 2008 needs a $2k service after 110k miles.

I haven't seen any windows regulator problems with Teslas but VWs consistently have window regulator failing at or around 90k mi.
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