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Wednesday is Tesla Investor Day and no one knows just exactly what they are going to see/hear about, and how impactful it will be.
We haven't hear squat about TeslaBots for a long time.
Is there a famous Tesla Model 2/$25,000 car announcement?
There's all this talk about Project Highland which most people think is a reference to Henry Fords Highland Park where Ford perfected the assembly line. And that we're going to hear about some breakthrough in manufacturing. Is that the same as the Model 2/$25K car?
I don't think any new model announcement that is still in the design phase will stir any excitement...or at least enough excitement to push the stock price up significantly (model 2?). The reason for that is that at this point, the general public expects new models to take years to reach production. The Model Y was an anomaly in that it reached production quickly (and people weren't that excited about the unveil at the time), but it shared the majority of its components with the Model 3.
For me personally, the most exciting news would be an update on the refreshed Model 3. Because a refresh can be executed much more quickly than a brand new model. And a refreshed Model 3 has clear implications for an upcoming refreshed Model Y. The second most exciting news would be an update on the Cybertruck, mainly because it'll take more time to ramp vs a refreshed 3.
If there is a new entry level model announcement (model 2?), I doubt it'll reach production at a $25k price. It'll likely be priced in the low to mid $30k range. Every Tesla is designed to be a "best in class" vehicle, but in order to achieve that, there are costs involved. Every Tesla is built with a highly robust chassis with multilink suspensions, with extensive use of high cost aluminum to save weight on the exterior. These setups aren't found in $25k cars. Even if Tesla's manufacturing efficiencies (single piece castings) make a $25k car possible, the desirability of the Tesla brand and superiority of the product relative to competitors would allow Tesla to easily command $5-10k more.
Wednesday is Tesla Investor Day and no one knows just exactly what they are going to see/hear about, and how impactful it will be.
We haven't hear squat about TeslaBots for a long time.
Is there a famous Tesla Model 2/$25,000 car announcement?
There's all this talk about Project Highland which most people think is a reference to Henry Fords Highland Park where Ford perfected the assembly line. And that we're going to hear about some breakthrough in manufacturing. Is that the same as the Model 2/$25K car?
The Tesla humanoid robot demo was kind of sad again. In true Muskian fashion, Musk breezily stated that Tesla is way ahead of everyone else in AI. But he hasn't been able to demonstrate that this is anything more than smack talk. Talk is cheap.
Yes, I know that I was just praising Tesla highly on innovation in auto manufacturing. Very different project, and with different results.
I had a 5 year stint working at a small software development company. The owner/head guy was a little like Musk. Even looked like him a little bit.
But when he had a new "toy" we were working on (that he had dreamed up), he just couldn't keep his mouth shut. Musk is like that.
I think the possible implications of TeslaBot are huge. And they should absolutely be working on it. But we never should have had a presentation about it. Just mention casually that Tesla is always testing new things. We're even playing with robots, but have had limited progress.
So my impression of the Investor Day was this: Kinda boring. Some cool stuff but boring. If you knew this was going to be the presentation, manage expectations beforehand.
Release the agenda: Say at "Investor day we will highlight our manufacturing prowess and progress. There will be no new product announcements or updates."
I had a 5 year stint working at a small software development company. The owner/head guy was a little like Musk. Even looked like him a little bit.
But when he had a new "toy" we were working on (that he had dreamed up), he just couldn't keep his mouth shut. Musk is like that.
I think the possible implications of TeslaBot are huge. And they should absolutely be working on it. But we never should have had a presentation about it. Just mention casually that Tesla is always testing new things. We're even playing with robots, but have had limited progress.
And then if you succeed. Boom.
Musk has articulated vague, but grandiose visions for what this Optimus robot program will become. So far though, progress as you've said, has been limited. I am not a Tesla investor, but I am less confident Tesla should be working on this. Robotics, particularly humanoid robots with many degrees of freedom and autonomous behavior, is not an easy area to work in - in my opinion it's considerably more difficult than anything that Tesla has succeeded in. If he can find multiple, brilliant people to underpin the Optimus team, then he might well succeed. But hiring multiple brilliant people - and getting them to function well as a team - is easy to say, and hard to do.
Last edited by OutdoorLover; 03-02-2023 at 07:00 AM..
So I haven't watched the content from the Tesla investor day, just some excerpts and news articles. What I thought sounded big though was the description of a next generation manufacturing process that would cut their manufacturing costs in half.
Tesla already has a lead in EV manufacturing - which is a big part of why their profit margins lead the industry among mass market vehicles. And if this is indeed going to be a big leap forward from where they are with their latest existing vehicle design and plant (the design and its manufacture are linked), they could lap the field.
Not only could Tesla make a good deal more money by executing on this, but for those who are excited about the EV revolution and think it's a positive, if Tesla passes on a significant amount of the savings to customers, it could really push adoption forward a lot - affordability, especially the purchase price, is currently still a big deterrent.
Of course, the specifics were few, but they haven't yet built this plant after all - and you don't want to disclose material information too early that can provide a competitive advantage, and they do have a good record for innovation in manufacturing, so I don't hear these pronouncements with the same level of skepticism that I do those about vehicle and robot autonomy from Tesla.
Last edited by OutdoorLover; 03-02-2023 at 07:16 AM..
I was just coming to post about this. I assume this is the infamous Project Highland. This video starting at :45 shows the difference between the 2 methods.
My assumption is that since it is so new there will be some major growing pains but that it will become the new standard. It just makes so much sense when you see it.
Some other things that are coming. Starting with Cybertruck I think they said and all new vehicles going forward, is 48 volt architecture. People have been talking about this for years. Musk says 48V results in a "4 time reduction" in the amount of copper used in production.
The drive train (motor, etc.) in the next gen vehicle will have no rare earth minerals at all.
Charging: I thought this should have happened a long time ago. Tesla routing software will act as Air Traffic Control, routing all people coming in for charges (based on their destinations) to the best charger for them and the network. I think it should route them to specific chargers based on their charging speed. i.e. Go to Lancaster SuperCharger station and use charger 4.
And of course, the news from the day before that the first 10 of a planned 3500 superchargers that can charge non-Tesla have opened. I think this is big. As a non-Tesla EV driver I'd much rather go to a Tesla station. I know it will be working. They have a chance to become America's EV Charging Network.
And in Texas, where they have different rules. Tesla is implementing unlimited nighttime home charging for $30 a month.
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