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First of all, a very large but unknown number of homicides are not recognized by authorities as homicides, but are listed as accidents,suicides, missing persons, etc. So we don't really know how many murders there are. If technology and social complexity makes it easier to disguise a murder, it will affect the number of murders that are actually detected and classified as murders investigated by authorities. Which skews the statistics without necessarily influencing the number of murders on the ground.
Second, nearly all murders take place in a social underworld, in which neither the perp nor the victim are the kinds of people that you and I would be personally acquainted with. The social dynamics in this underworld is fluid, and can be variable according that demographic's relationship to the general population. The War On Drugs probably contributed to a high number of the murders, because the huge drug industry had to operate behind closed doors in fear and suspiction. When that wound down, there were fewer people who had the kinds of problems that homicide can solve.
The abortion issue is also a very valid projection. Unwanted children grow up in a deprivation that generates unwanted adults, who may be of a more murderous frame of mind. So by releasing society from the mandate to have unwanted children, the obvious result is fewer children growing up without socially-acceptable nurturing.
First of all, a very large but unknown number of homicides are not recognized by authorities as homicides, but are listed as accidents,suicides, missing persons, etc. So we don't really know how many murders there are. If technology and social complexity makes it easier to disguise a murder, it will affect the number of murders that are actually detected and classified as murders investigated by authorities. Which skews the statistics without necessarily influencing the number of murders on the ground.
Second, nearly all murders take place in a social underworld, in which neither the perp nor the victim are the kinds of people that you and I would be personally acquainted with. The social dynamics in this underworld is fluid, and can be variable according that demographic's relationship to the general population. The War On Drugs probably contributed to a high number of the murders, because the huge drug industry had to operate behind closed doors in fear and suspiction. When that wound down, there were fewer people who had the kinds of problems that homicide can solve.
The abortion issue is also a very valid projection. Unwanted children grow up in a deprivation that generates unwanted adults, who may be of a more murderous frame of mind. So by releasing society from the mandate to have unwanted children, the obvious result is fewer children growing up without socially-acceptable nurturing.
If the number of abortions portends a drop in the murder rate, then should it not follow that the murder rate would stop dropping as abortion numbers remained stable or decreased?
Why has the murder rate then continued to drop, even as abortion rates have not increased commensurately? The murder rate is at levels not seen since the 1960's:
The abortion argument is poor argumentation, and shows a lack of critical thinking; however, it fits some peoples' preconceptions, so it is followed blindly. Another poster mentioned here that crime increases with unemployment, recession, etc. but that is also invalidated as the crime rate has continued to drop through the recent economic troubles.
If the number of abortions portends a drop in the murder rate, then should it not follow that the murder rate would stop dropping as abortion numbers remained stable or decreased?
Why has the murder rate then continued to drop, even as abortion rates have not increased commensurately? The murder rate is at levels not seen since the 1960's:
The abortion argument is poor argumentation, and shows a lack of critical thinking; however, it fits some peoples' preconceptions, so it is followed blindly. Another poster mentioned here that crime increases with unemployment, recession, etc. but that is also invalidated as the crime rate has continued to drop through the recent economic troubles.
Not all unwanted babies commit murder on their 20th birthday. Which means that abortion rates and murder rates are not in lock step at exactly some fixed interval of lag time. And, as I pointed out, abortion rates are only one of several factors that can influence the murder rate.
There is also lag time for the general crime rate. People don't run out and burglarize a house the same night they get laid off their jobs. It takes years of frustrating poverty for a non-criminal to become desperate enough to turn to a life of crime.
Also, there is little correlation between the overall crime rate and the murder rate. Murders are committed for very different reasons than other crimes, which are often economically motivated. An increase or decrease in, say, auto theft, is not necessarily matched by the murder rate. Murders have no effect on the crime rate, and represent only a fraction of a percent of all crimes. In my city there were 3,529 serious crimes investigated last year, and only 7 (0.2%) were murders. If the number of murders had been zero or 14, the overall crime rate would still have been the same.
If the number of abortions portends a drop in the murder rate, then should it not follow that the murder rate would stop dropping as abortion numbers remained stable or decreased?
Why has the murder rate then continued to drop, even as abortion rates have not increased commensurately? The murder rate is at levels not seen since the 1960's:
The abortion argument is poor argumentation, and shows a lack of critical thinking; however, it fits some peoples' preconceptions, so it is followed blindly. Another poster mentioned here that crime increases with unemployment, recession, etc. but that is also invalidated as the crime rate has continued to drop through the recent economic troubles.
I've already said it. Crack started to be come popular in the eighties; along with that came the crack epidemic. Drugs, gangs, violence and more. It lasted almost up until the mid 90s.
I've already said it. Crack started to be come popular in the eighties; along with that came the crack epidemic. Drugs, gangs, violence and more. It lasted almost up until the mid 90s.
I feel like crack must be a big part of it. The cocaine/crack epidemic would fall into '79-'93 more or less. It does leave me with a big question still though. Why did the crack epidemic stop? I read about a crack arrest in the paper today. I know I've seen people on 4th street in Austin tx who, if not on crack, I can only assume were zombies.
The drug war has never been effective enough to wipe out 30% of use of a certain drug in a year and prevent a thousand murders in 12 months. They'd need to so some serious meth to pull that off.
Also crack in itself wouldn't push abortion aside as a factor since one could argue that without another way to explain the end of the crack epidemic, it could be that some of the crack users of '95 hadn't been born? Oh, and I'm not saying I think that means abortion is good,, I know someone will throw that at me anyway.
Concealed carry would also be able to co-exist with the crack epidemic. People started packing and it deterred criminals?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunderpig
The murders are probably just being done more "in the shadows"; off-record / off-radar. That keeps the "official" numbers down.
I can't find any reason why they would suddenly be off the radar by about a thousand murders per year staring in '95 unless something came along to make dissappearing bodies reallllly easy to do compared to other years. And if it did you have to consider that more technology also came around to detect crimes that would have passed as accidents or foulplay with lesser forensic technology of the past to rely on.
On the one had science has exhonerated people over the years who were convicted on junk science in the 80's or because of more prevalent racism in the past. But also, more people have been succesfully incarcerated because of new technology. It's not one-sided. There would have to be some greater conspiracy to suddenly have 1000 murders a year go away by it just being 'unofficial'. Not saying that's impossible. But there's 254 counties in texas whose books you'd have to cook.
Not all unwanted babies commit murder on their 20th birthday. Which means that abortion rates and murder rates are not in lock step at exactly some fixed interval of lag time. And, as I pointed out, abortion rates are only one of several factors that can influence the murder rate.
There is also lag time for the general crime rate. People don't run out and burglarize a house the same night they get laid off their jobs. It takes years of frustrating poverty for a non-criminal to become desperate enough to turn to a life of crime.
Also, there is little correlation between the overall crime rate and the murder rate. Murders are committed for very different reasons than other crimes, which are often economically motivated. An increase or decrease in, say, auto theft, is not necessarily matched by the murder rate. Murders have no effect on the crime rate, and represent only a fraction of a percent of all crimes. In my city there were 3,529 serious crimes investigated last year, and only 7 (0.2%) were murders. If the number of murders had been zero or 14, the overall crime rate would still have been the same.
You make good points, but it is unfortunate that people would ever dress up abortion as having any cause whatsoever on crime rates. Causation would at any level be neutered if the crime rate was in fact lower at other times when abortion was nearly nonexistent--as it was in the 1950's, for example. If the crime rate was far lower when abortion rarely occurred, it invalidates the proposal that abortion reduces violent crime.
I do find the crack epidemic as being statistically important to the cause of crime, as is the rate of incarceration. Having less felons on the street is always a good way to ensure they can in fact commit no further crime.
... when abortion was nearly nonexistent--as it was in the 1950's, for example. If the crime rate was far lower when abortion rarely occurred, it invalidates the proposal that abortion reduces violent crime.
....Having less felons on the street is always a good way to ensure they can in fact commit no further crime.
I don't know that it invalidates it outright.
In the 1950's having a larger bred family (4-7 kids) or a kid you didn't quite plan on wasn't all so bad compared to being in a later decade. Teen pregnancy was probably more of a ticket to the convent in the 50's than 70's, but being a mom with 3 kids and, oops, a 4th was probably not a gamechanger compared to having one kid today, and oops, a second. That's 100 percent more kids.. Terrifying. The US was lifted out of the depression by WW2 and as all the carpet bombing occurred in Europe but left our infrastructure in tact, or actually, lots of heavy industry was formed during the war effort that translated into more heavy industry for peaceful/profitable uses (Detroit, etc) there was a ton of manufacturing jobs in the US that you could retire from after making a substantial living without a big investment on the front end like college. If there was a kid who was not being cared for by mom and dad the communities were tighter knit then,, disciplining someone else's kid wasn't such a litigious item yet and bad kids didn't have really hard drugs as available yet to try to get relief from their angst. Cast off kids from the 50's still had the ability to succeed without a degree or even highschool graduation working in jobs that don't pay the bills now or no longer exist (manufacturing).
People started to resent children they didnt plan on more in the 70's since having larger families with a single bread winner started becoming less possible. The current 'rust belts' in the US were places that had their boom times in the 50's and by the 70's its the middle of the end (coal towns, steel towns). Enter women's liberation around then as well and attitudes about women as family makers is starting to irritate women who want to invest in college before planning a family and see an 'accident' a lot differently than before. Think about how long some people are waiting to have kids these days because of status/material aspirations.
Once again, not making the case that 80,000 abortions a year in Texas is something we can smile about anymore than I'm making the case that womens liberation caused the crack epidemic. I just think comparing the 50's to subsequent decades isn't going to be apples to apples.
Stiffer incarceration for felons is going to have a major effect for obvious reasons and from the articles people have posted that's seems to be a substantial cause. It also draws out the detractors who question whether a high incarceration rate is something to tout as a good thing in the same fashion that abortion will never be seen as benefit in any way to some people. Although between the two of them, incarcerated felons probably doesn't really bother people as much at all.
Location: East Texas, with the Clan of the Cave Bear
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Could it have anything to do with the frequency we strap convivted murders down on a gurney , putting a needle in their arm and shooting them full of pentothal and then a load of Potassiun chloride?
There is also the shift from violent crime to computer crime, identity theft, etc. Smart criminals don't use a gun anymore.
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