Honest Assessment Of Tucson Housing Market 2021 (Phoenix, Green Valley: transplants, for sale, 2013)

[grmi66]

I keep hearing things from both sides, one side is convinced the bubble is about to burst and it will be 2008 all over again in Tucson. The other side is saying that in actuality Tucson is undervalued and our housing prices will rise over the next few years.

What I do know is that I feel bad for lifelong and long term residents of Tucson who knew the lay of the land for buying a house, did the right things and now are simply priced out of the market because they don't have an extra $50,000 laying around to be competitive in a bidding war. I'm hearing and reading a lot of frustration among long term Tucson residents that they can't buy a first house based on their typical Tucson jobs. The old days of a couple who work as retail managers and administrative jobs earning just enough to afford a small house are over.

Where do you think honestly the Tucson market is going to go? Have an agent friend up in Boise Idaho (which in many ways is similar to Tucson) and in that market there are less than 10 homes under $300,000. Of those 10 homes, one is a mobile home on an acre of land, three are townhouses and another is a complete teardown for sale at $270,000.

Personally I think California transplants will drive the market for at least another few years.

[steiconi]

Same thing has been happening in California for decades; outsiders drive up prices so native borns can't afford to stay. Maybe everybody should be required to stay in their home town forever.

[DAXhound]

Heaven forbid good jobs come to an area, the trailer park renters would surely face higher rents... But, don't worry, TUSD will always keep a large swath of Tucson ghetto.. it actually needs the headcount from the illegals so its administrators can live in District 16. But, IMO, the upward price pressure from the Californians does have several more years to run. High stock markets, low interest rates, the demand for real assets, baby boomers parents dying in droves (inheritances), and people that have no intention of joining the workforce...and Phoenix has gotten so overvalued, and is much less livable in the Summer... all point to higher home prices in Tucson. That is my honest appraisal from someone, who has owned five homes in Arizona, with no intention of owning or living in Tucson.

[ArniBoy]

My wife sells in the high end luxury segment here and that section of the market is booming. Million dollar houses were limited, even a few years ago, and would spend some time on the market, but that is not the case recently. All out of state clients, willing to pay full price, cash, and quick closing. Hard to compete. Also, the inventory is beyond limited, especially in the sub 500K market. Houses are selling the same day, with multiple offers (even in the million+ market). With low interest rates for the foreseeable future, people able to work remotely from anywhere, Tucson's relatively low cost of living, beautiful weather, and the mass exodus of people from horribly run democratic states like California, I don't see the market in a bubble for the foreseeable future.

Even worse in Phoenix. We saw a recent picture of an open house in Arcadia (very desired area of phoenix) and there was a line of at least 25 people waiting to get in......Also, have heard from some relator friends there that some new construction sites are holding lotteries in order to buy a home in their subdivisions because of demand. Craziness.

[grmi66]

I used to live in Phoenix and my old house was in a starter neighborhood built in the late 60's on the less desirable west side of I-17 by a mile. My neighbors tended to be blue collar guys, teacher, cops, firefighters and retail managers who worked at the large mall down the street. Solid neighborhood for what it was, but nothing fancy. Slump block construction with houses on 8000 foot lots. For grins and giggles I looked up my old house and places are selling for $300,000-$350,000. For the same price you could get a nice house in my NW Tucson neighborhood right now.

It will be interesting if anything happens south of River in the actual city of Tucson. It could be ripe for a gentrification project. Already along Orange Grove near Oracle, someone razed a mobile home park to build condos and the suburban ranch properties next door have fencing around them. Looks like someone purchased a few homes for the land and will be tearing the houses down to build something soon.

[gman4gov]

Amazing how a house that cost $140,000 to build is going for over $300,000 in a city that pays very little wages and doesn't have to many amenities in cities it size. The inentory is also low and Tucson desperately needs more home builders.
For first time home buyers, be patient and don't give in to the 'stingyness' of others.
As of now, I do think people are relying on the Cares Act to pull them through COVID times, but eventually like everything, things will come to an abrupt end.

[tijlover]

The pandemic is certainly playing a role in all this, as so many feel that they're going to be semi-trapped in their houses for some time, so let's make it as comfortable as we can. Have you priced a 2 X 4 at Lowe's or Home Depot lately. That's definitely pandemic related. $6-$7?????

My neighbor across the street, had my Mexican roommate Handyman build a deck for him last year and a 2 X 4 was running $3.25-$3.50. Lots of pandemic remodeling going on, for sure!

One thing that could keep the prices up is if Biden decides to cancel student, even if it be $50k. All that money they're spending on college debt could be transferred to a mortgage.

I wouldn't be effected by any kind of RE crash, mild or severe. I paid $31k for my mobile home in a mobile home co-op 2 and a half years ago, put less than $7k into it, so no worries here.

My retired cousin and wife bought a home in Green Valley, a year and a half ago for $239k, they paid $70k down on it, and if I were them I'd be worried.

[tijlover]

Originally Posted by steiconi

Same thing has been happening in California for decades; outsiders drive up prices so native borns can't afford to stay. Maybe everybody should be required to stay in their home town forever.

Outsiders? You mean the Chinese, who if they pay $500k or more for a house, and stay there for 3 years, they automatically become US citizens? I had read one out of 5 buying homes in CA are Chinese.

[steiconi]

Originally Posted by tijlover

Outsiders? You mean the Chinese, who if they pay $500k or more for a house, and stay there for 3 years, they automatically become US citizens? I had read one out of 5 buying homes in CA are Chinese.

I don't think that's how immigration works.

I was thinking of Midwesterners who think the whole state is a Baywatch beach, tech folk who come for the jobs, wannabe actors who wind up selling used cars in San Jose...

[dump1567]

I felt when I got to this area 2 years ago it was the best kept secret around. Homes were still cheap ($50K to $70K less than the Phoenix area) & would soon start increasing. Personally, I believe this area just started coming out of the 2007-2008 crash. Some home owners who bought in that time frame are just now breaking even on value or have a little equity built up now. This is what happened in Orange County, CA in 2013. It just takes longer in other areas depending on desirability.

With the COVID work from home crowd, job availability in this area isn't needed like it used to be. There's also a ton of Seniors who aren't job dependent moving here.

IMO, this area will continue to boom for the next few years. That's great for home values for those that own. More shopping, eating choices, Medical, and newer areas. Not so great for those getting priced out of the market & wanted a quieter life in this area.