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The second is more difficult because it's more anecdotal. I see frequently anecdotal evidence of people who moved to the exurbs for cheap nice housing and were miserable. You can probably find some here on C-D.
There isn't a single "proof" for the proposition that many people are seduced by the big new houses beyond anecdotal references. But that doesn't mean it isn't very real. It also doesn't mean that no one is happier living in an exurb than in a city -- of course there are some people who are happy to trade the convenience of a city for a house to their liking. Plenty of people don't care for the city and are happy to never go there. But, the economics do show that exurbs suffer first when there is a housing downturn. (see e.g. Far-flung exurbs hard hit by housing downturn | Reuters )
#1: Hidden behind a paywall
#2: Couldn't open because I wouldn't give them my email. I may be a Boomer, but I'm not stupid about technology! Also, title is hyperbole - "soulless" which totally discredits it.
#3: Finally one I can get into, but it's from 2014. My impression? "Socially conscious, creative" millennials? Sounds like the way we Boomers talked in 1969, while we disparaged our WW II vet parents. What goes around, comes around. Few statistics.
#4: Another 2014 article. Sorry, "City Lab" is just too, too for me. A survey about what people say they want to do in the future. See this: How To Tell Fake News From Real News In 'Post-Truth' Era : NPR"Is the story set in the future? It's hard to get firsthand reporting from there. Any story that tells you what will happen should be marked down 50 percent for this reason alone." Hey, we Boomers, especially us older Boomers were going to change the world as well. We weren't interested in money. We were into "social justice". Blah, blah. It all seemed so profound at the time.
#5: Posted earlier in this thread. A "fluff" story that even says "While it’s hard to quantify, Williams says, the majority of baby boomers aren’t flocking to downtown city centers. It is happening in a handful of cities, like D.C., and usually among higher-income boomers."
#6: A story from 2007 about housing prices has zero credibility these ten years later.
Lemme tell you something, as a former visiting nurse who had a number of elderly clients. Once you get to the point that you can't drive any more, you're not going to be able to do much walking either, especially to the supermarket where you'll have to haul the groceries home. You may have a hard time with public transportation, too.
Not necessarily. I have elderly relatives who had to give up driving and did just fine using public transportation or calling cabs. They managed fine because they weren't forced to give up their licenses. Rather, they were aware that they had become unable to continue driving. Not every case is exactly the same. Buses these days have steps that can be lowered to accommodate those who can't handle stairs as well anymore.
Are you saying that people should stay put in their big homes that they can't care for on their own?
Not necessarily. I have elderly relatives who had to give up driving and did just fine using public transportation or calling cabs. They managed fine because they weren't forced to give up their licenses. Rather, they were aware that they had become unable to continue driving. Not every case is exactly the same. Buses these days have steps that can be lowered to accommodate those who can't handle stairs as well anymore.
Are you saying that people should stay put in their big homes that they can't care for on their own?
If I had to guess, I'd say it's more the cabs than PT.
No, I didn't say that, whatever gave you that idea? I'm saying this "move to a condo in the city" isn't the answer, either. By the time people can't drive any more, they may need to be in some type of senior housing that provides more services.
#1: Hidden behind a paywall
#2: Couldn't open because I wouldn't give them my email. I may be a Boomer, but I'm not stupid about technology! Also, title is hyperbole - "soulless" which totally discredits it.
#3: Finally one I can get into, but it's from 2014. My impression? "Socially conscious, creative" millennials? Sounds like the way we Boomers talked in 1969, while we disparaged our WW II vet parents. What goes around, comes around. Few statistics.
#4: Another 2014 article. Sorry, "City Lab" is just too, too for me. A survey about what people say they want to do in the future. See this: How To Tell Fake News From Real News In 'Post-Truth' Era : NPR"Is the story set in the future? It's hard to get firsthand reporting from there. Any story that tells you what will happen should be marked down 50 percent for this reason alone." Hey, we Boomers, especially us older Boomers were going to change the world as well. We weren't interested in money. We were into "social justice". Blah, blah. It all seemed so profound at the time.
#5: Posted earlier in this thread. A "fluff" story that even says "While it’s hard to quantify, Williams says, the majority of baby boomers aren’t flocking to downtown city centers. It is happening in a handful of cities, like D.C., and usually among higher-income boomers."
#6: A story from 2007 about housing prices has zero credibility these ten years later.
I don't know why you couldn't access it. I had no issues with a paywall, and I am not a subscriber. I suspect you just don't want to see information that contradicts your pre-formed opinion.
Here are some other articles on the same thing: Companies moving to Chicago from the suburbs - Chicago Tribune
As for the other issues, the point is that to figure out what happens in a downturn, look at what has happened in previous downturns. As they say, those who are ignorant of history are doomed to repeat it. This is one way we learn -- we see what happened previously.
Last edited by nei; 08-05-2017 at 05:57 AM..
Reason: trolling
I telecommuted for the last 7 years and did it for another 3 years some years ago. When that came to an end, I had a very tough time trying to land another telecommuting job. Sure, it's 2017. Sure, I have a 300 megabit/sec broadband connection. Sure, I have many years demonstrating I can be productive as a telecommuter. The mindset of virtually all employers is that they want your butt in that chair 40 hours per week so they can watch you work.
Exurbs full of telecommuters is fiction. Sure, some people can do it. I did. When that job inevitably vaporizes, you're back in an office building as a corporate drone until you can build the relationship and trust where you can telecommute again. I have two residences I own. I can't easily get to that office building to be a corporate drone. The transportation infrastructure is inadequate. Those two residences are now weekend places and my midweek zip code is very different from the two zip codes where I actually want to live.
Good points regarding telecommuting! My husband worked at home for almost 9 years before he retired. He could have moved anywhere in the US and still do his job. Yet we stayed put because if his job came to an end, it would have been a lot easier to find another job in his field where we live.
I am over 30, I have a baby, and I live in one of these dense urban areas you hate so much. I think I'm pretty productive, that is why I can afford to live here. I have no plans to ever leave. I know many other people who are just like me. Now I am not denying that "move to the suburbs once you have kids" applies to MANY if not most millennial city dwellers. But still there are enough exceptions that your stereotype and blanket statements are inaccurate and misleading. There is no basis for saying "no productive individual" would do this. Have you met every single city dweller so you can judge how productive they are? Your comment about decay is also a misleading blanket statement. Yes there are cities where crime is up but there are also many others where crime has been steadily dropping.
Generalizations exist for a reason. Seems every time a sensible post crops up there's always someone shouting from the rooftops that "well that doesn't apply to ME" or "well my aunt's best friend's husband blah blah blah..." Duh, no crap. There's always exceptions when you're living in a country of 320,000,000 people. Those exceptions do not deny the overall trend though.
And like I stated. What are the odds you live in one of those "safe and gentrified" enclaves? How insulated are you from the problem areas of your city? But of course you pay for that protection with expensive house/rent costs, and the police are happy to provide your enclave with triple the protection as long as your tax dollars keep rolling in.
There's a lot of dynamics at play, and in a country of 320 million people are going to make a huge variety of individual choices.
For the record, I love the concept of cities. They should be efficient and wonderful examples of civilization's progress and efficiency. Unfortunately that is not the case for many.
Lemme tell you something, as a former visiting nurse who had a number of elderly clients. Once you get to the point that you can't drive any more, you're not going to be able to do much walking either, especially to the supermarket where you'll have to haul the groceries home. You may have a hard time with public transportation, too.
My 90 year old mom, a retired RN, has all of her mental faculties. Her hearing and eyesight (and cholesterol and A1c for that matter) are better than mine. But, just as you describe, she can walk around her house with a cane but would not be able to walk a hundred yards to a store (if there were a store a hundred yards away).
One thing that may help our aging population age in-place is the proliferation of delivery services to bring food, clothing, etc to the home.
Well, yeah. And not every job lends itself to telecommuting. Health care providers (a growing sector of the economy), teachers, service providers, and so on can't do it from home.
Yet another reason such jobs may be relatively immune to globalization and offshoring.
Ditto for us 58 and 54 year old "empty nesters." We are moving towards a more simple life style free of clutter, too much space and yard work. Our prospective home will be over 100 years old, just big enough for us and our kid visitors, within walking distance to an enormous amount of amenities and will be way more practical in our end years than the suburban thing.
Knowing what you want is important.
When we were in our mid-50s, we thought we wanted to downsize from our 5500 sf house with an 1800 sf garage. So, we did.
We tried the 3300 sf condo, and it just wasn't for us. It felt far too cramped. We concluded we're big space people.
So, we built a 7800 sf primary home with an 1100 sf garage. If I had it to do over again, I'd make the garage bigger (1800sf) and the house bigger (probably 8800sf).
Our winter vacation home started out as a 1350 sf condo, but we upsized to a 3500 sf house, and we're looking to replace that with a 5500sf vacation house with a 1200sf garage.
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