Some Realtor Input Please (Richmond, Fredericksburg: days on market, sales, real estate)

[gonzolafacce]

How do you feel/think the current real estate market [houses, farm, land, lots] is in comparison to 2 years ago ? And what is your projection for the coming 1 year, 2 year mark.

Are Tract Development new house sales moving and what is your opinion of the status of developers land banked for future development?

Thanks
Gonzo

[DavidS827]

Without knowing exactly which area you are looking, it would be very hard to say. The current market, trends and forecasts will be different in almost every city across the area.

[EricD]

Originally Posted by DavidS827

Without knowing exactly which area you are looking, it would be very hard to say.

If you click on his name, and then choose 'read all posts by this user' (or the choice similar to that), you can see that he has been posting about the Fredericksburg area... and actually just south of Fredericksburg, off of the 126 exit in Spotsylvania.

And I'm not a realtor of course, but since I'm posting anyways, 2 years ago was when everything started slowing down. I personally think this past winter was the rock bottom, but this coming up winter won't be much better... Real estate goes in normal cycles throughout the year, and winter is always the worst time of year... which is why things will look bad this winter, but I think by next spring things will get better again, like it did this spring. It has just taken a few years to get rid of some of the inventory of homes... when the market started to fall, every person who could stick a sign outside of their house tried to sell while they could still get a good price. Investors took the biggest hit, especially when they all put their houses on the market at the same time. But like I said, it's taken a couple years, but I think next spring, things will turn around.

[rant]
Just my opinion though... I've been in the Fredericksburg area since I was born, and have been keeping up with the market conditions... so I may not have formal training, but judging by half of the real estate ads posted in the paper and in magazines... I wouldn't trust someone's opinion just because they are a realtor... if they can't spend the time to make sure they are spelling words correctly, or even putting the correct address in the ad, why should I think they put any more attention into the information they give out? Obviously that's not all realtors, but my experiences haven't been so great in general, so I hope you understand.
[/rant]

[jmarkd]

90% of realtors would tell you things are looking up. After all, they only make money when someone buys or sells a house.
Try taking your car to a mechanic and asking if anything is wrong with it or if it needs any work. If any of them say "it's fine," send me their name

[LuvnNLivn]

In response to your inquiry ...

About 2 years ago, we started to see the market slow down dramatically ... and we're still seeing home prices drop. Basically, the housing market is stablizing itself from the "hot" market created by the historically low interest rates. It's my opinion that we still see things stablize over the next year and then we'll see a rise in real estate values at a more realistic rate - 3-5% rather than the 25-30% we saw a few years ago.

As far as new home builders, they'll weather the down market by offering awesome incentives to purchasers.

Buyers have so many homes to choose from and they are being picky. Very unlike the market when things went crazy.

These are just my thoughts and observations - but I think it'll be a year or more before we start to see things on the real estate market pick up.

[onevthoki]

I agree with LuvnLivn. I know that in my development prices are still going down, and I hope to heaven I don't have to move soon, because I am not going to get what I would want.

That being said, I love what I do, but I am also in the unique position that I work because I want to, not because I have to. And it would be very hard to be a (new) Realtor in this market if you depended on your income for a living. I think that many of the people that got into this profession when the market was hot will soon be finding new careers.

As to the original question from Gonzalafacce, the market has definitely come down since 2005. I would dare say most homes in the Fredericksburg area are selling for at least $50K less and some as much as $100K less. People that bought during that time and now NEED to sell are definitely taking a hit.

[ashbrn4]

My dad is a realtor in Fredericksburg and he will tell you no one can predict the future. That said, real estate over the long run has trended up, but no one can tell you when or how. If they could, they wouldn't be agents, but welathy investors. Stability is a probability, probably even some growth, but exact growth is an unknown.

[LuvnNLivn]

While I'm not a brand-new realtor, I'm relatively new in comparasion to many realtors I know and work with. It's been a tough couple of years ... but I'm doing ok. I work with tenants and landlords as well as buyers and sellers.

I agree that we can't predict what will happen, but we can speculate -- historically the market will stablize and start upwards ... only time will tell.

I live in the Fredericksburg area -- my primary market is from Fredericksburg to Gainesville ... I have closed deals as far away as Stephens City!

Good luck ... Things will get better!!

[jhrichmond]

The market in the Richmond area has not had prices go down drastically, but the problem is that there are twice as many listings as last year and less closings, forcing sellers to often take less than list price. 2 Years ago, the average days on market was about 2 weeks. Now it's about 6 months. Plus, interest rates are on the rise.