Is Wheaton gentrifying? (Columbia, Bethesda, Gaithersburg: low income, sale, real estate)

[cry_havoc]

Im guessing that now is a good time to invest in land in Wheaton, and watch as it becomes the next big growth/development area.

[goldenage1]

Originally Posted by cry_havoc

Im guessing that now is a good time to invest in land in Wheaton, and watch as it becomes the next big growth/development area.

Some housing in Wheaton has been gentrifying for the past several years. I am curious how rapidly the Archstone apartments are filling up, and whether the Leesborough townhouses are selling, as they would be a good index.

However, I don't think the up-scale business has developed yet. I think there might be opportunities to take under-performing businesses, and convert them to something more profitable. (I doubt there is much vacant land.) One example might be a gourmet carry-out for all those busy Metro commuters going back to their apartments.

There might also be opportunities to take an old house in a good location, and re-build it to a more upscale residence and re-sell for a profit.

[PhenomenalAJ]

A wise person should invest in Wheaton, I think of it as gentrification ground zero in the DC area. It's the last cheap relatively safe area on the Metro line. You can get a 2bdr house blocks from the Metro for $250,000. Goldenage1 is correct in that the area has been gentrifying for awhile now, I'd reckon the mid 2000's because it was just getting worse in the late 90s up to the early 2000's. If I were a big money real estate investor, I'd be renovating those 1940's-50s houses all around the Metro; they don't usually have far to go, just need to be updated with modern kitchens and fixtures and such. They have that big Safeway condo building coming this year that will house 1000 and BF Sol Company is going to build up the entire downtown.

It's not there yet because it is still mostly a town of Latin immigrants but I see more professional people walking around whereas 5 years ago that would be quite unusual. It's still under the radar but by 2020 people will think of it as like Columbia Heights and I could see Glenmont moving upscale in the distant future.

[superseiyan]

Originally Posted by PhenomenalAJ

It's not there yet because it is still mostly a town of Latin immigrants but I see more professional people walking around whereas 5 years ago that would be quite unusual. It's still under the radar but by 2020 people will think of it as like Columbia Heights and I could see Glenmont moving upscale in the distant future.

How many years in your opinion before Wheaton, Glenmont, and parts of Gaithersburg (Olde Towne) are priced out for young couples? I'm thinking mostly town homes. I'm fearing it will be sooner than you say--within five years if the rent prices of new apartment complexes are anything to go by.

As you say these three are the last (commuter friendly) outposts of affordability in Montgomery County for "normal' typical folks.

[adelphi_sky]

Originally Posted by PhenomenalAJ

A wise person should invest in Wheaton, I think of it as gentrification ground zero in the DC area. It's the last cheap relatively safe area on the Metro line. You can get a 2bdr house blocks from the Metro for $250,000. Goldenage1 is correct in that the area has been gentrifying for awhile now, I'd reckon the mid 2000's because it was just getting worse in the late 90s up to the early 2000's. If I were a big money real estate investor, I'd be renovating those 1940's-50s houses all around the Metro; they don't usually have far to go, just need to be updated with modern kitchens and fixtures and such. They have that big Safeway condo building coming this year that will house 1000 and BF Sol Company is going to build up the entire downtown.

It's not there yet because it is still mostly a town of Latin immigrants but I see more professional people walking around whereas 5 years ago that would be quite unusual. It's still under the radar but by 2020 people will think of it as like Columbia Heights and I could see Glenmont moving upscale in the distant future.

While I agree with you that Wheaton is chaning, I wouldn't call it ground zero. If anyone is looking to get in on the ground floor of something, I would choose neighborhoods near the proposed Purple Line. Riverdale (getting a whole foods), College Park (getting a Harris Teeter (maybe)), Hyattsville (EYA/Belcrest Plaza redevelopment), Adelphi (FDA/Life Sciences Village - East Montgomery County's answer to West Montgomery County's Biotech corridor). The building boom in those areas has resumed from pre-recession levels. The housing stock is about the same as Wheaton's and cheaper. I would say that 2020 is a bit ambitious. Gentrification usually takes 20+ years to complete a cycle. I would say Wheaton is in the beginning stages with about 15+ years to go. I believe Hyattsville is further along. I would give Hyattsville under 10-15 years before it will look completely different. Even with the Purple Line coming on board in 8-13 years, Langley Park won't be transformed until developers buy in to the transformation which could take another 10 years after the Purple Line is completed. That's 18-23 years away.

1. The Domain at College Park (Breaks ground next month)
2. College Park Center (http://www.jbgr.com/images/inner/properties/CollegeParkCenter.pdf - broken link)(planning stages)
3. Maryland Book Exchange (plans approved)
4. College Park Shopping Center (planning stages (Harris Teeter?))
5. Cafritz (planning stages)
6. East Campus (http://www.eastcampus.umd.edu/2011Phase1SitePlan.pdf - broken link) (planning stages)
7. Town Place Suites by Marriot (planning stages)
8. Percontee Belcrest Redevlopment (breaks ground 1st quarter?)
9. EYA Arts District East Village (Under Construction)
10. University View Village (http://dcrealestate.citybizlist.com/item_upload/bldg_66.JPG - broken link) (waiting on a start date)

[PhenomenalAJ]

Originally Posted by superseiyan

How many years in your opinion before Wheaton, Glenmont, and parts of Gaithersburg (Olde Towne) are priced out for young couples? I'm thinking mostly town homes. I'm fearing it will be sooner than you say--within five years if the rent prices of new apartment complexes are anything to go by.

As you say these three are the last (commuter friendly) outposts of affordability in Montgomery County for "normal' typical folks.

I think Wheaton is going to be somewhat costly by 2020. Everything is moving really fast, I expect the whole downtown area to be completely renovated and developed by 2015. Right now its a lot of small mom and pop Latin restaurants and small businesses. There are still fairly cheap but rundown apartments a few blocks from the Metro, I think those parts of Wheaton haven't been hit with gentrification but they will be soon when housing directly around the Metro begins to skyrocket.

As for Glenmont, that will take quite a bit longer, the area is probably bottomed out now. You can buy a 2 bdr condo a block from the Metro there for $100K. There's no real development going on there and poor people being pushed out of Wheaton are moving there. The schools are pretty atrocious as well. It's not as unsafe as Langley Park but its not really in any way desirable other than being by the Metro and crime is fairly bad, I avoid the area at night. There's no signs of gentrification yet and it will be at least a decade before it improves if not more.

[King_of_DC]

I live in wheaton... in one of those luxury hotels... lol...

I think most of us see wheaton as a skip from SS and DC. The city itself is okay, if you stick to the mall area. I've been out in the local area and it is not a place I'd rather go at night. It is 100% safe... I've never felt unsafe.

Far as change, I think we will have spots, but I don't see much chnage. As the houses get older, I see more hoods going to latin peeps (good nor bad). I see small sections of expensive places trying to stay that way.

A friend stays around the corner in a high-priced condo (looks like a townhouse). She and all her (lack of better word) "rich" friends are moving out.

I like the area... close to the metro, mall across the street, and safe. Not everyone feels safe though.

[Hereiamtoo]

I'd say I'm part of the gentrification of Wheaton - white lawyer. I'm in my early 30's, and I was looking for a place that is metro-accessible, convenient to shopping, etc, in a family-friendly area that we could afford on one (white collar) salary. Maybe it's an age thing or a first-time homebuyer thing, but I value knowing we could afford our house if something happened to one of our jobs, and we didn't have a lot of cash or the sale of other property to parlay into buying something in a pricier area. Wheaton is very conveniently located - north Bethesda, Rockville, Kensington, silver spring - all really close. Plus the proximity to parks and trails is nice. I can't say that I would necessarily move to any neighborhood in the area, but I love my tight-knit neighborhood. It's full of diverse, interesting professionals and retirees. I can say that a few of my coworkers are also planning to purchase homes in the general area. I'm not too sure about our local schools, but I don't have to worry about that for awhile anyway. I can tell you, when I get off the metro during rush hour, I see many people who look like me. So yeah, I'd say it's gentrifying.

[oldway]

Got a question. Where will all the low income people who are now living in these areas go to? If all of this development takes place as everyone here says will happen wont low income families be priced out of these neighborhoods?you need to have people making the money to fill these new town homes or spend money in these town centers. Lower income families don't have that type of cash. Also, if you do make that type of money why would you move to Wheaton? Why not Rockville? Or another area that has been renovated. I would not invest a dime in Wheaton you drive 3 miles down university blvd into Langley park and it's like you drove across the boarder into south America.

[goldenage1]

Originally Posted by oldway

Where will all the low income people who are now living in these areas go to? If all of this development takes place as everyone here says will happen wont low income families be priced out of these neighborhoods?

Nothing is being destroyed so far. The lower-income apartments remain, which is primarily where the Hispanics live. The newer townhomes are "infill" developments. One is on the site of private high-school which moved.

So far, I don't see it worth-while to tear down the low-rent apartments to replace them with more expensive housing. They have always been surrounded by houses for middle and upper-income families. Nearby areas like Kemp Mill have some $600-800K houses. Gentrifying in Wheaton will just provide better shopping opportunities for the more affluent folks. Unless the rents rise a lot, the dollar stores and such won't disappear.

But, if the lower income folks are priced out of Wheaton, they will go north to Glenmont and Aspen Hill, as they already are, and maybe on to Olney.