Snowpack, water levels and 2020 fire season forecasts (roach, summer)

[rkcarguy]

I think we are looking good for not having a dry/smoky summer as we've definitely had a wetter June, but it doesn't take long for things to dry out if it gets hot and stays that way for ~2 months. Snowpack looks good, still lots of white on Baker up here.

[Ruth4Truth]

Originally Posted by rkcarguy

I think we are looking good for not having a dry/smoky summer as we've definitely had a wetter June, but it doesn't take long for things to dry out if it gets hot and stays that way for ~2 months. Snowpack looks good, still lots of white on Baker up here.

If you look at August on that map site linked earlier, all of OR & WA are high risk. In June, it's only eastern WA and a part of southern OR, but by Aug. it looks like they're expecting everything to dry out.

We'll see.

[Diana Holbrook]

August is always dry and hot. We do have summer here, after all.... but it is nice that the hot and dry hasn't started *yet*.

[Ruth4Truth]

Originally Posted by Diana Holbrook

August is always dry and hot. We do have summer here, after all.... but it is nice that the hot and dry hasn't started *yet*.

Interesting. I can't remember how many people on this forum have denied that late July--August is always hot in western WA, but it's been a lot. I agree with you, though; I often would decamp to the Bay Area that time of year, where it was always 10-15 degrees cooler.

But back then, there was still rain on and off through May and June, so the forests wouldn't get as dry as they have in the last decade or so.

[Diana Holbrook]

Huh! I've not seen people who are in denial about Washington summers. Not only is it ALWAYS hot and DRY in July and August, it often extends a few weeks both directions.

9 months of rain, 3 months of drought. Almost always.

[dav51lin]

a summer of protests and covid

[Ruth4Truth]

Originally Posted by Diana Holbrook

Huh! I've not seen people who are in denial about Washington summers. Not only is it ALWAYS hot and DRY in July and August, it often extends a few weeks both directions.

9 months of rain, 3 months of drought. Almost always.

Yes, I know, and that's been especially true in the last decade or so. But I've had people lecture me here, about how summers around Puget Sound are cool and mild. They used to be, a long time ago, and it wasn't unusual for them to be rainy, either, but those days are long gone.

[Botev1912]

Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth

Yes, I know, and that's been especially true in the last decade or so. But I've had people lecture me here, about how summers around Puget Sound are cool and mild. They used to be, a long time ago, and it wasn't unusual for them to be rainy, either, but those days are long gone.

According to the long term averages, the summers have never been rainy. They are actually drier than Phoenix.

[Diana Holbrook]

Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth

Yes, I know, and that's been especially true in the last decade or so. But I've had people lecture me here, about how summers around Puget Sound are cool and mild. They used to be, a long time ago, and it wasn't unusual for them to be rainy, either, but those days are long gone.

They may be cool and mild in temperature compared with *hotter* places.... but I think people may have faulty memories about them being rainy.

[Ruth4Truth]

Originally Posted by Diana Holbrook

They may be cool and mild in temperature compared with *hotter* places.... but I think people may have faulty memories about them being rainy.

I remember spending several rainy summers at summer camp in the area. Not every summer, but maybe about 1/3 of the summers. I remember every June my first years at the UW would have days of warm rain showers with sun breaks. It was spectacular!

The climate has been getting drier, and the dry periods--longer. The "dry season" now stretches from May through September, most years. The 80's were mostly dry in the summers, but 1979-89 was a drought decade on the West Coast in general. A harbinger of things to come, it seems.