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For better or worse, I’m old enough to remember the day before weather was “marketed”…when the local weather person analyzed the current weather map and made a 5 day weather forecast. Even when NOAA started using super computers to make 60 and 90 day forecasts two decades ago, these products were really only used as a rough guide – and then only for the meterological community.
However, once the bean counters realized that there was a market for weather “shows” like the Weather Channel and AccuWeather…weather as a science lost all respect in the eyes of many. Weather is now another part of our daily lives that can be hyped, twisted, or marketed for profit. Not only do they try to hype the current weather…but now even the weather 4 months ahead of time has “market value”. What is both comical and sad at the same time...is that while the masses eat it up this hype and spin, as if the “seasonal outlooks” have real scientific merit (and are truly “predictions”)…the people that spin this stuff get away with a gerrymandering of media markets for the maximum amount of interest… while doing nothing more than absurdly stating the obvious.
Here is AccuWeather’s Winter 2010/2011 Forecast (the national news agencies carried every half hour the day it came out):
First we see the bold headline “HEAVIEST SNOW” dramatically drawn from the upper Midwest through the Great Lakes to Northern New York/upper New England. Of course, an 6th grader knows that’s not much of a forecast - the zone from the Midwest eastward through the Great Lakes/upper New England is the snowiest zone in the USA outside of the mountains and passes in California, Oregon, and Washington State. Wow, a real “expert” must have had to make such a unusual forecast – lol. Heavy snow this winter in Duluth, Grand Rapids, or Buffalo – what a shock!
Next, we see the words “STORMY” with white letters over the red background (oooh how dramatic) sprawled across the Pacific Northwest. What a risky forecast, “stormy conditions” in the PNW from November to March. Seeing as how the Gulf of Alaska harbors more storm activity than any other location in the Northern Hemisphere in Dec/Jan/Feb – and most of these lows move eastward…this is a forecast for that is absurdly obvious. Low pressure will move toward the PNW in winter…yea and it’s gets cold in the North Pole. Tell us something we don’t know – lol.
The next insult comes in the dramatic “WINTER BATTLE ZONE” again in white letters with a red background from the central Plains to the Tri-State/Mid Atlantic coast (NYC, Boston, Philly…etc). The meteorological insult to even the most unintelligent is obvious: Of course this will be the “winter battle zone, the regions just to the south of the zone normally see little winter weather on average…the areas to the north of the zone sees a lot of winter on average. This is the mean path of the Polar Front Jet in winter across the USA much of the time. Where would we expect to see the winter battle zone in the central and eastern USA – Maine or Texas? Also, notice, also how this uncertain battle zone conveniently falls into the biggest media market in the USA (and the most populated region in the USA) the Washington DC to NYC corridor? Would it be so news worthy or riveting it the battle zone was in New Mexico or North Dakota (no offense to those states of course). Give us a break. At least try to make the false impression you’re not trying to draw the weather around media markets and population centers for crying out loud!
Then we see that big white arrow with the words “COLD SHOTS” coming down from Canada into the Northern Plains. Considering that 90% of ALL the cold waves that enter the central and eastern USA in winter follow this path…not only is it an obvious forecast but a dumb one as well: The area from around North Dakota east/west 200 miles has the coldest mean temps in the winter in the USA! What would they expect in winter in Fargo or Williston…warm shots? Do they really think we’re this dumb?
Then we see the words “NOT MUCH WINTER” strategically placed from southern California eastward across the far southern USA to the lower East Coast around North Carolina. How serendipitous that this line roughly follows the geographic boundary of the American subtropics. Wow, what a bold forecast…not much winter in San Diego, Tucson, Las Cruz, New Orleans, or Charleston. I wonder what conclusion a 6th grader with a word climate zone map might come to? They’ll be so shocked (and relieved) in Phoenix and Houston they won’t need a snowplow and thermal underwear this winter! Lol.
The final insult of course the comical little golf ball over the most of the Florida Pensualr “GET YOUR TEE TIMEs”. AccuWeather’s bold forecast is that they will be playing golf in January or February in Florida – lol. Glad they had all those super computers working overtime at AccuWeather to tell us that one. They have been playing golf in Florida in the winter since 1895…that’s why they play golf in Florida in winter – it’s warm and sunny! What a forecast, it will be nice in Miami and Orlando in winter, what an unseal forecast for this winter in Florida. I was always mystified why 15 - million people would travel to Florida between December and March from Europe and other parts of the USA. Maybe it has to do with the weather? Man they really nailed that forecast– lol.
While I agree that weather has gone wayside for the buck$, at the same time, there have been improvements in the long range forecasting, specifically addressing the issues of the El Nino and La Nina. As an example, the hurricane forecast that was issued prior to the season beginning was for an above average to well above average year for named storms. Sure enough, this has been the case, and we are all the way up to Tropical Storm Richard now.
So, while it is primarily marketing hype, don't completely discount or discredit what has become a more accurate way of looking at the long term. Although I tend to laugh at the Farmer's Market guides, they have been predicting the weather for a LONG TIME now, for a WHOLE YEAR in advance, and at times, they have been close to being spot on the money!
While I agree that weather has gone wayside for the buck$, at the same time, there have been improvements in the long range forecasting, specifically addressing the issues of the El Nino and La Nina. As an example, the hurricane forecast that was issued prior to the season beginning was for an above average to well above average year for named storms. Sure enough, this has been the case, and we are all the way up to Tropical Storm Richard now.
So, while it is primarily marketing hype, don't completely discount or discredit what has become a more accurate way of looking at the long term. Although I tend to laugh at the Farmer's Market guides, they have been predicting the weather for a LONG TIME now, for a WHOLE YEAR in advance, and at times, they have been close to being spot on the money!
Ian
I agree, they have gotten better at long range tropical cyclone forecasting. However, whether it’s NOAA or William Gray…etc they are really only predicting tropical cyclone activity for a whole ocean basin. They would be foolish if they tried to make predictions about landfall locations. The media outlets like the Weather Channel and AccuWeather go way too far.
I think what irks me is how they graphically try to hype the weather. They merely state the obvious…and try to create the most drama in the biggest media markets/population centers in the country
.
The Farmers Almanac…don’t even get me started on that one. They were bought out 25 years ago by a company that just recycles the same forecast every 10 years -lol.
Wow... definitely stating the obvious... Here in Canada, there is still some hype to the weather on our weather channel but certainly nothing like that. Our seasonal forecast maps tend to have a bit more science attached to them. Although, even here sometimes they state the obvious like - it's going to be stormy and rainy on the BC coast or there is snow in Labrador and make it sound like a big thing... to anyone who is familiar with weather, it's stating the obvious and seems ridiculous.
I agree, they have gotten better at long range tropical cyclone forecasting. However, whether it’s NOAA or William Gray…etc they are really only predicting tropical cyclone activity for a whole ocean basin. They would be foolish if they tried to make predictions about landfall locations. The media outlets like the Weather Channel and AccuWeather go way too far.
I think what irks me is how they graphically try to hype the weather. They merely state the obvious…and try to create the most drama in the biggest media markets/population centers in the country
.
The Farmers Almanac…don’t even get me started on that one. They were bought out 25 years ago by a company that just recycles the same forecast every 10 years -lol.
You have to understand, that people are visually attatched to things. Thats why first impressions are everything these days for MOST folks, whether you are talking about meeting someone, going into a new store, watching a movie, or gazing at the Weather Channel. Advertisers know this, and so to increase viewership, the Weather Channel (among others) will make silly maps to show incredulous forecasts that depict where the events are going to occur. Most people here on the Weather Forum here on CD know this is just hype, and most likely those lines aren't going to be the case.
But, if the NOAA makes a generalized forecast, people tend not to listen as closely, and the viewership/internet hits/advertising $$$ falls, so then you get these maps. Even though the maps may be laughable to a certain extent, I too enjoy looking at them, irregardless. And, if you just put a grain of salt to what is said, you can get a general idea of what the actual prediction was meant to be.
So for all its hype, how has this forecast held out?
Well at least from the looks of it, "not much winter" didn't turn out as planned.
Don’t even get me started! You don’t know the half of it:
First Joe B and company at AccWeather said.... a drought for the lower West Coast/CA…not much winter for the southern tier…and the winter battle zone (meaning no one air mass would dominate) across the middle of the USA (middle West to NYC)…and heaviest snow along the USA /Canadian border.
…and what happened:
One of the wettest Decembers on record and disastrous flooding in California (Los Angles had over 10 inches of rain in December - more than Seattle).
Several places in the Gulf and South Atlantic had one of their coldest Dec/Jan on record. Miami failed to hit 70 F (21 C) on eleven days in December (and fell below 40 F on three nights). Yes, the pattern will moderate in the coming weeks, but not even close enough to make their forecast even close to right.
The mid- central and middle East Coast will be the battel zone (meaning thier will be contrasting warm and cold air masses). What happended? From mid December to just a few days ago…cold air dominated. Cities like NYC, Baltimore, St.Louis, and Washington Dc often hit the 40’s and 50’s on several times from mid December to mid February in a normal winter, yet in general cold dominated from the middle plains eastward and there was record snowfall in January.
Finally, even the area where they tried to just play climo – they even got burned (heaviest snow). Up until, recently (late January) there really was not a lot of snow in the far northern areas of the USA (upper Midwest/Great lakes/upper New England). The Chicago blizzard a few days ago was really only their second big snow since November 1st.
Of course, now that everyone can see the huge break coming next week (Feb 13 to 19th) in the pattern, suddenly winter is over and Joe and company were “right on target with their forecast”. Next week there should be highs in the 80’s in the southwest (and maybe Texas too) and in the 60 and 70’s from the plains to the East Coast (Washington DC could hit 70 F next week). Of course Joe saw it all along:
AccuWeather.com - Weather Video - Bastardi: One More Wild Week, Then the Back of Winter is Broken (http://www.accuweather.com/video/778628464001/bastardi-one-more-wild-week-then-the-back-of-winter-is-broken.asp - broken link)
But I don’t really blame Joe personally…AccuWeather can blow the forecast 100%...but they are so smooth they can spin it like everything they said was right. I guess it just shows how weather today is no longer forecasted…it’s marketed. The big headline is what they want.
Glad to see someone is paying attention to the seasonal forecastes, hype, and spin over at AccWeather.
For better or worse, I’m old enough to remember the day before weather was “marketed”…when the local weather person analyzed the current weather map and made a 5 day weather forecast. Even when NOAA started using super computers to make 60 and 90 day forecasts two decades ago, these products were really only used as a rough guide – and then only for the meterological community.
However, once the bean counters realized that there was a market for weather “shows” like the Weather Channel and AccuWeather…weather as a science lost all respect in the eyes of many. Weather is now another part of our daily lives that can be hyped, twisted, or marketed for profit. Not only do they try to hype the current weather…but now even the weather 4 months ahead of time has “market value”. What is both comical and sad at the same time...is that while the masses eat it up this hype and spin, as if the “seasonal outlooks” have real scientific merit (and are truly “predictions”)…the people that spin this stuff get away with a gerrymandering of media markets for the maximum amount of interest… while doing nothing more than absurdly stating the obvious.
Here is AccuWeather’s Winter 2010/2011 Forecast (the national news agencies carried every half hour the day it came out):
First we see the bold headline “HEAVIEST SNOW” dramatically drawn from the upper Midwest through the Great Lakes to Northern New York/upper New England. Of course, an 6th grader knows that’s not much of a forecast - the zone from the Midwest eastward through the Great Lakes/upper New England is the snowiest zone in the USA outside of the mountains and passes in California, Oregon, and Washington State. Wow, a real “expert” must have had to make such a unusual forecast – lol. Heavy snow this winter in Duluth, Grand Rapids, or Buffalo – what a shock!
Next, we see the words “STORMY” with white letters over the red background (oooh how dramatic) sprawled across the Pacific Northwest. What a risky forecast, “stormy conditions” in the PNW from November to March. Seeing as how the Gulf of Alaska harbors more storm activity than any other location in the Northern Hemisphere in Dec/Jan/Feb – and most of these lows move eastward…this is a forecast for that is absurdly obvious. Low pressure will move toward the PNW in winter…yea and it’s gets cold in the North Pole. Tell us something we don’t know – lol.
The next insult comes in the dramatic “WINTER BATTLE ZONE” again in white letters with a red background from the central Plains to the Tri-State/Mid Atlantic coast (NYC, Boston, Philly…etc). The meteorological insult to even the most unintelligent is obvious: Of course this will be the “winter battle zone, the regions just to the south of the zone normally see little winter weather on average…the areas to the north of the zone sees a lot of winter on average. This is the mean path of the Polar Front Jet in winter across the USA much of the time. Where would we expect to see the winter battle zone in the central and eastern USA – Maine or Texas? Also, notice, also how this uncertain battle zone conveniently falls into the biggest media market in the USA (and the most populated region in the USA) the Washington DC to NYC corridor? Would it be so news worthy or riveting it the battle zone was in New Mexico or North Dakota (no offense to those states of course). Give us a break. At least try to make the false impression you’re not trying to draw the weather around media markets and population centers for crying out loud!
Then we see that big white arrow with the words “COLD SHOTS” coming down from Canada into the Northern Plains. Considering that 90% of ALL the cold waves that enter the central and eastern USA in winter follow this path…not only is it an obvious forecast but a dumb one as well: The area from around North Dakota east/west 200 miles has the coldest mean temps in the winter in the USA! What would they expect in winter in Fargo or Williston…warm shots? Do they really think we’re this dumb?
Then we see the words “NOT MUCH WINTER” strategically placed from southern California eastward across the far southern USA to the lower East Coast around North Carolina. How serendipitous that this line roughly follows the geographic boundary of the American subtropics. Wow, what a bold forecast…not much winter in San Diego, Tucson, Las Cruz, New Orleans, or Charleston. I wonder what conclusion a 6th grader with a word climate zone map might come to? They’ll be so shocked (and relieved) in Phoenix and Houston they won’t need a snowplow and thermal underwear this winter! Lol.
The final insult of course the comical little golf ball over the most of the Florida Pensualr “GET YOUR TEE TIMEs”. AccuWeather’s bold forecast is that they will be playing golf in January or February in Florida – lol. Glad they had all those super computers working overtime at AccuWeather to tell us that one. They have been playing golf in Florida in the winter since 1895…that’s why they play golf in Florida in winter – it’s warm and sunny! What a forecast, it will be nice in Miami and Orlando in winter, what an unseal forecast for this winter in Florida. I was always mystified why 15 - million people would travel to Florida between December and March from Europe and other parts of the USA. Maybe it has to do with the weather? Man they really nailed that forecast– lol.
I wonder if they are hiring at AccuWeather?
This map is utterly ridiculous and useless. It tells me nothing about temperatures expected, snowfall, etc. in various parts of the country. For a weather service to post something like this shows utter incompetence and contempt for anyone with a brain.
I agree that weather is now being marketed and hyped beyond any logic reason. I'm in the Chicago area and seen the local news anchors get excited over a 2 inch snowfall forecast! I just don't understand this.
When I'm looking for a weather forecast, I want to here detail on expected temperatures, humidities, wind, precipitation amounts and types. Save the BS for someone who cares.
And yes, I do recall the days before weather was marketed.
Don’t even get me started! You don’t know the half of it:
First Joe B and company at AccWeather said.... a drought for the lower West Coast/CA…not much winter for the southern tier…and the winter battle zone (meaning no one air mass would dominate) across the middle of the USA (middle West to NYC)…and heaviest snow along the USA /Canadian border.
…and what happened:
One of the wettest Decembers on record and disastrous flooding in California (Los Angles had over 10 inches of rain in December - more than Seattle).
Several places in the Gulf and South Atlantic had one of their coldest Dec/Jan on record. Miami failed to hit 70 F (21 C) on eleven days in December (and fell below 40 F on three nights). Yes, the pattern will moderate in the coming weeks, but not even close enough to make their forecast even close to right.
The mid- central and middle East Coast will be the battel zone (meaning thier will be contrasting warm and cold air masses). What happended? From mid December to just a few days ago…cold air dominated. Cities like NYC, Baltimore, St.Louis, and Washington Dc often hit the 40’s and 50’s on several times from mid December to mid February in a normal winter, yet in general cold dominated from the middle plains eastward and there was record snowfall in January.
Finally, even the area where they tried to just play climo – they even got burned (heaviest snow). Up until, recently (late January) there really was not a lot of snow in the far northern areas of the USA (upper Midwest/Great lakes/upper New England). The Chicago blizzard a few days ago was really only their second big snow since November 1st.
Of course, now that everyone can see the huge break coming next week (Feb 13 to 19th) in the pattern, suddenly winter is over and Joe and company were “right on target with their forecast”. Next week there should be highs in the 80’s in the southwest (and maybe Texas too) and in the 60 and 70’s from the plains to the East Coast (Washington DC could hit 70 F next week). Of course Joe saw it all along:
AccuWeather.com - Weather Video - Bastardi: One More Wild Week, Then the Back of Winter is Broken (http://www.accuweather.com/video/778628464001/bastardi-one-more-wild-week-then-the-back-of-winter-is-broken.asp - broken link)
But I don’t really blame Joe personally…AccuWeather can blow the forecast 100%...but they are so smooth they can spin it like everything they said was right. I guess it just shows how weather today is no longer forecasted…it’s marketed. The big headline is what they want.
Glad to see someone is paying attention to the seasonal forecastes, hype, and spin over at AccWeather.
You hit the nail on the head! I actually emailed Joe on AccuW and asked him about his blown forecast. He emailed me back pretty quickly. Would you believe that he spun it thusly. That he knew cold was coming in future years, and that all the things coming together to bring colder conditions happend much quicker than he thought. I emailed back and told him that in November before he knew what was happening he claimed a mild winter for the south, but that once a cold pattern kicked in, him and a bunch of others claimed we would have a cold winter. I told him that once a cold pattern kicks in or a warm one, that you're really not telling us anything we didn't know already. I'm so over these long range forecasts. Their bunk!
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