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Hmm. Hartford got almost double the amount snow I got in October. Do you if the January totals are from coastal storms? Then it's possible Hartford got more snow than Amherst.
But if Hartford is slightly warmer than Amherst, so if part of the precipitation then was coming as rain, it might have fall as snow in Amherst.
It was more of a sum of small events
16th: 2.3"
19th: 1.7"
21st: 2.8"
None were coastals. Most were just short waves or clippers.
First off, it is fair to count the October storm's totals for 2011-2012, as it occurred during the same season as the others. However the DJF totals are also important. Both the Dec-Feb totals and the total total is pathetic, and NYC has simply had a pathetic excuse for a Winter this year (for the record I like cold, snow, and wind and only speak for myself).
So will NYC end February with only 4.5 inches for the met winter? It's possible, as the pattern going forward doesn't look too good; however it's much better than it was, and coastal storms are possible going forward, especially later on this month. Forecasting skill two weeks out is poor, although one can score a hit. Even if they get a storm, it may not be significant, or drop only 2 inches or something like that. I think they have a good chance of seeing a storm of some intensity between now and the end of February, so I'd bet on the total being at least a little bit higher by the end of the month.
There's also the late-season storms even if they don't count for the DJF total. Even in New York, to have a March snowstorm isn't terribly unusual, and can on occasion get a good hit, as it did in March 2009. As I recall there was also a snow later in the month of March in 2011, although after early March chances do drop off precipitously.
So I doubt that NYC will not get any more snow this season, but I wouldn't bet on any total much more than 10 inches for the total season, and no more than 7 inches for DJF, assuming current trends continue going forward into March (which they probably won't, but a pattern change may be more of an interior-favored setup).
A little while ago, back when people were arguing about whose grass is greener, I took these with my phone and since then forgot about it. They are pictures of a lawn in Madison Square Park, Lower Manhattan, NYC, taken on Feb 7. Not sure what the original thread was so I'll just stick them here.
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