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What do you base this on? Because of La Nina? If La Nina appears in the summer, that would increase our chances of a warmer than normal summer?
Next winter we will have a weak to moderate La Nina. It won't even show up until the Fall. Your summer may not even be La Nina summer after all. I wouldn't count on it at this point. What about all that soil moisture?
Next winter we will have a weak to moderate La Nina. It won't even show up until the Fall. Your summer may not even be La Nina summer after all. I wouldn't count on it at this point. What about all that soil moisture?
Wet soil doesn't cause a cool summer, it prevents extreme heat by maximizing humidity.
Next winter we will have a weak to moderate La Nina. It won't even show up until the Fall. Your summer may not even be La Nina summer after all. I wouldn't count on it at this point.
Rainy springs have indeed been followed by blazing summers in the Chicago area. The spring of 1995 was a wet one (with precipitation totaling 11.69 inches), though not nearly as wet as this spring's 14.79 inches (and the Chicago's sixth wettest on record). The summer of 1995 was a very hot one, with 39 days at or above 90 degrees at Midway Airport, including three days of triple-digit heat. That summer, the worst weather-related disaster occurred in Chicago, the seven-day heat wave of July 10-16 that resulted in more than 750 fatalities. Take note that spring 1983, the city's wettest with 17.51 inches of rain, was also followed by a torrid summer: 47 days of 90-degree-plus temperatures at Midway, including two days in the 100s.
And this article is from 2011, which Wildcat15 demonstrated was also extremely wet, both the spring and summer, and a little above average for us (though not nearly as hot as 95' and 83') in temps. I would be ok with a 2011 type summer (that was a weak La Nina summer).
Thus far we've had about 9.5" of rain in Chicago this spring.... Oh and to blow another hole in you a theory that I've hear you say before, cold winters don't necessarily lead to cool summers for me. Look at the winter of 2011 for example. January and February were significantly colder than normal, and we ended up with a decent summer overall.
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Last edited by chicagogeorge; 05-16-2016 at 04:05 AM..
Next winter we will have a weak to moderate La Nina. It won't even show up until the Fall. Your summer may not even be La Nina summer after all. I wouldn't count on it at this point.
Exactly. Too many people are banking on the atmosphere responding to La Nina conditions in Pacific. Could be status quo as we've had this Spring. Which is, mostly seasonable with cold shots, moisture and some heat shots.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons
What about all that soil moisture?
It's well known that drier surfaces will heat up faster and more. It depends how deep the dryness is too.
If an area has been really dry in Spring and soil down like 6 inches+ is dry, there are better odds the area will get well above normal and have some really hot days in summer. ie: Heat Waves
Exactly. Too many people are banking on the atmosphere responding to La Nina conditions in Pacific. Could be status quo as we've had this Spring. Which is, mostly seasonable with cold shots, moisture and some heat shots.
It's well known that drier surfaces will heat up faster and more. It depends how deep the dryness is too.
If an area has been really dry in Spring and soil down like 6 inches+ is dry, there are better odds the area will get well above normal and have some really hot days in summer. ie: Heat Waves
And this article is from 2011, which Wildcat15 demonstrated was also extremely wet, both the spring and summer, and a little above average for us (though not nearly as hot as 95' and 83') in temps. I would be ok with a 2011 type summer (that was a weak La Nina summer).
Thus far we've had about 9.5" of rain in Chicago this spring.... Oh and to blow another hole in you a theory that I've hear you say before, cold winters don't necessarily lead to cool summers for me. Look at the winter of 2011 for example. January and February were significantly colder than normal, and we ended up with a decent summer overall.
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George what other than a la Nina is hinting at a hot summer for you. I'm starting to doubt it myself, with all these cold blasts, its like in November 2014 , all the cold blasts hinted at a cold winter just like now all these cold blasts hint at a cool summer. Maybe its just me starting to feel pessimistic these past few days.
all the cold blasts hinted at a cold winter just like now all these cold blasts hint at a cool summer. Maybe its just me starting to feel pessimistic these past few days.
Probably just a pessimistic thing, we all seen patterns flip fast to hot or cold.
But I look at what's been happening this spring as a strength/weakness indicator. In other words, the Northern Branch/Polar Jet Stream is still stronger than the Southern Branch or South East Ridge. The more these happen the less chances of heat building because it's like the atmosphere keeps getting carved out and the SE Ridge keeps getting knocked down so it doesn't have strength to pop up and sustain itself. These Upper Lows keep closing off in the Northeast isn't helping either.
But I'm not even looking at further west where it all starts. Alaska needs to have a trough, not a Ridge for Eastern U.S to get hot. Why isn't that happening for Alaska? Don't know. El Nino/La Nina has something to do with it too.
Worst of all a weak LA Nina and positive PDO means record cold , like 96,00, and worst of all 85 . East coast is cooling fast.
Exactly. And you wonder why I want Seattle cold and the PDO to cold. The worst combo for the east coast is warm PDO and cold AMO. Right now the warm AMO is haning on by a thread. If it goes to cold you are in real trouble. That was late 70's and 80's. The only reason the South got moderated from that was the warm AMO and flip to cold PDO. And it seems already the cold PDO is over and now back to warm. Bad bad news for us and the South and all the stuff that has been growing down there since the 80's ended. Figures this would be one of the shortest cold PDO's ever.
George what other than a la Nina is hinting at a hot summer for you. I'm starting to doubt it myself, with all these cold blasts, its like in November 2014 , all the cold blasts hinted at a cold winter just like now all these cold blasts hint at a cool summer. Maybe its just me starting to feel pessimistic these past few days.
Nothing other than a La Nina, and the long range models..... What else would I use as an analog? El Nino was an analog to a mild winter right? BUT, there are other factors at play. Personally, I feel that June will be either average or below, as we still have an El Nino "in the atmosphere".
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