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00z GFS has a blizzard for many of us Virginia to Boston. Gee where did I hear this before this far out? Lol. Pattern is ripe for it. Will this finally be the one though?
Friday commute is going to be horrible if this plays out as shown. Im already making plans to take off or keep it light that day.
The moments you lose sleep over. The Euro has come north. I repeat.... The Euro has come north. Incredible. Do ALL 3 main models showing this storm to impact the Mid Atlantic and Northeast and guess what... unlike the 1/16/16 storm, this time there is s High to the north.
So ALL models agree on this storm Friday-Saturday now.
This still doesn't mean it will materialize but confidence definitely growing. Friday could be a very messy and bad commute and IF what is shown verifies it would be a "thread starter for us"
Here are the snow totals from the latest updates.. Remember... forget the exacts... lets just say, its a storm they are showing. That's the focus right now
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES AS MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF LOW PRES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
NOTING RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IN THE H5 FLOW AS IT TRANSLATES
TO THE MID ATLC COAST. ALL THREE 00Z OP RUNS HANDLING THIS
DIFFERENTLY THOUGH ALL ARE DIGGING A LONG WAVE TROUGH BY LATE
FRIDAY. OF COURSE...BIG QUESTIONS ARISE AS TO EXACT
TRACK...REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ITS ULTIMATE
TRACK IN VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ON THIS MORNING/S
RUNS...LOOKED LIKE THE GFS AND GGEM WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE IN
TIMING WHILE THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER DUE TO DEEPER CUTOFF H5 LOW WITH
ITS DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH. THAT IS ABOUT ALL THAT WILL BE
MENTIONED.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THAT THERE ARE MANY MOVING PARTS IN
PLAY WHEN IT COMES TO TRYING TO DEVELOP AN POTENTIAL SNOW STORM THAT
MAY OR MAY NOT AFFECT THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. ONE THING
THAT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK IN PLAY IS COLD HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION...SO PTYPE WILL AT LEAST START OUT AS SNOW. BEYOND THAT
IS ANYONE/S GUESS. WILL JUST NEED TO SEE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM ON
FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
The energy comes on shore by Wednesday and that's when we get better details and confidence on forecast since models have more data from the atmosphere to pick up. No data (or lack of) comes from the Pacific
Yeah let's not get too excited yet. Storm just left Japan Who knows maybe it becomes another Great Lakes Cutter or Ohio Valley storm which would give me some snow, instead of the East Coast, but the flow this week makes that doubtful.
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