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I think in general, most people's views stay the same, but their priorities change over time. Younger generations in the UK are apparently more right-wing than the Boomers economically, but more left-wing socially, so I think many young people place greater emphasis on social issues than older generations who probably don't care as much (if at all).
Another thing is that older people today might have been 'liberal' by the standards of the 1970s but less so by the standards of today. I have no doubt young people today will appear conservative in 40-50 years.
We also have to remember that during previous decades it was a norm and even a priority to rebel against your much more conservative parents. But these days there's no need for that, so conservatism among youth is considered more normal than it used to be.
The New Left in Britain are Corbynites though. That's his fanbase. All the old policies except in terms of the EU flip.
Unless you'll count in young liberals in that. I can see a very split electorate between Lab and LibDem in the future (25/20 perhaps) with the Tories completely dominating at 45-50. Labour will always have the advantage because of their inner-city landslides where no one can take the seats away from them. Looking at the regional polling:
I was surprised to see that Labour have made gains in the South West under Corbyn... could perhaps shock wins in both Plymouth constituencies unfold and a shocking increased win margin in Exeter? Something doesn't look right there... I'd guess it's a mass over-representation among student youths in Bristol accounting for much of that, so I'd still be surprised if the Tories won't hold onto Plymouth. Also looks like the boundaries are going to hurt the Tories big in the North East. I'd reckon 19-10 to Labour even if this massive regional turnaround would occur. A bit surprising though that Tees Valley + Bishop Auckland will by many accounts see a Tory plurality in this election. Even a win in Sedgefield is not off the cards. Yes, Tony Blair's old seat
To be fair, Sedgefield is very rural and resembles a lot of the forming mining areas of East Midlands that are now Tory. Parts of that constiuency (near Middlesbrough FC:s training ground) looks very well off. For the Tories to win Sedgefield, Hartlepool and Stockton North it's going to take a lot but wouldn't rule any of them out right now.
Young people are more enthusiastic about Corybn, but when I talk about the 'old left' I mean the left who dislike globalisation, the EU and open borders. Most young people in the UK support those things.
Labour have gone up in the polls recently. Their manifesto was generally well-presented imo and their policies are very popular with the electorate. Corybn himself though is still a huge liability (and that's ignoring crazy Abbot), even though he's performed better since the election campaign started (I think he feels more at home on the campaign trail meeting people than debating in parliament).
The Tories are still going to win a large majority whichever way you cut it, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Labour had a higher vote share this year than 2015 (but with far fewer seats, of course). It's pretty much coming down to Labour vs Tories, and many Lib Dem and Green supporters are switching to Labour as the only viable non-Tory alternative.
Young people are more enthusiastic about Corybn, but when I talk about the 'old left' I mean the left who dislike globalisation, the EU and open borders. Most young people in the UK support those things.
By globalization you mean in general for free trade? Open borders as unlimited immigration? The "no human being is illegal" attitude.
We also have to remember that during previous decades it was a norm and even a priority to rebel against your much more conservative parents. But these days there's no need for that, so conservatism among youth is considered more normal than it used to be.
I think youth conservatism was highest in the 80s to maybe mid 90s, when Reagan was a popular figure.
By globalization you mean in general for free trade? Open borders as unlimited immigration? The "no human being is illegal" attitude.
Yes to the former, but not 'unlimited immigration' per se. Most young people in the UK like open borders with Europe. Probably not with the rest of the world.
Personally, I think if the UK had freedom of movement only with Western and northern Europe, the desire to leave the EU wouldn't be as great as it is, or at least immigration wouldn't be such a hot topic.
Labour have gone up in the polls recently. Their manifesto was generally well-presented imo and their policies are very popular with the electorate. Corybn himself though is still a huge liability (and that's ignoring crazy Abbot), even though he's performed better since the election campaign started (I think he feels more at home on the campaign trail meeting people than debating in parliament).
Thing is though that the Panelbase poll doesn't look too legit. All other polls have UKIP still above 5 % so to suggest UKIP will go lower than in 2010 doesn't add up to reality.
Then there's also the historical effect of overstating Labour in the polls that happened both in 1992 and 2015.
They may well tie their 2015 results but 34 % is an absolute ludicrous number. They'll also most likely win massive popular vote-majorities even by Labour standards in their favourite territories (big cities) whereas be wiped out in rural areas of course.
My popular vote prediction:
Con 48
Lab 29
Lib 9
UKIP 5
SNP 4/41 in Scotland
Green 3
Others: 2 (NI + PC etc)
Personally, I think if the UK had freedom of movement only with Western and northern Europe, the desire to leave the EU wouldn't be as great as it is, or at least immigration wouldn't be such a hot topic.
as I have said, freedom of movement makes more sense for countries of similar income levels. Following that, I think the US should have an open border with Canada. Looks like the US is similar in that younger people are more positive about immigration:
Thing is though that the Panelbase poll doesn't look too legit. All other polls have UKIP still above 5 % so to suggest UKIP will go lower than in 2010 doesn't add up to reality.
Then there's also the historical effect of overstating Labour in the polls that happened both in 1992 and 2015.
They may well tie their 2015 results but 34 % is an absolute ludicrous number. They'll also most likely win massive popular vote-majorities even by Labour standards in their favourite territories (big cities) whereas be wiped out in rural areas of course.
YouGov had UKIP below 5% in one of their polls, though their most recent poll put them back to 6% (seems strange).
I don't think 34% is a ludicrous number. The two-party vote share this year is predicted to be the highest since 1970. Third parties will become almost nonexistent (excluding the nationalities ones like SNP). Polls have also shown that the Lib Dems have been declining with much of that support going to Labour - but of course the Lib Dems will only fall so far, so I don't think Labour can do much better than that.
that's kinda true; but there's a lot of evidence that people adopt most of their political views in their 20s; the generation that came of age under Reagan is far more conservative than George Bush or early Obama years, for example. The generation older than those who lived under Reagan in their 20s is a bit more liberal.
But the Baby Boomers were also the hippy generation. You don't come much more left-wing than that.
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