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So, I missed out badly on the 15 C mark and looking bad on the 10 C mark because of the temps being so mild and a lack of rainfall.
24 September only just hit 15 C but the first day below it where I live (58 N east coast Sweden) was on 3 October. My guess of 18 September therefore goes belly up
As for 10 C I guessed October 6. It was actually quite close in that October 4 saw an 11 C high. However, at the moment in the long-term forecast we're looking at a 10 C day tomorrow, so it may be it. If so, I'd be damn close.
Frost I guessed on October 14. That is still possible. There have been two nights at 2 C so far so certainly not unrealistic.
If we're using 1 July-30 June as our cut-off point, we had our first sub-15C high on 2 July
We've got 12-14C highs forecast for the whole of the next week, so it might be a while until we get our first single-figure max.
In theory we average 1.3 frosts in October going by 81-10, but four of the five Octobers from 2011 to 2015 were frost-free. Lowest so far this autumn is 4.0C.
First freeze for Monroe will be Oct 28.
First freeze for NYC will be Nov 15th.
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