March 2017 Snowstorms Eastern U.S (Mississippi, snowfall, warm, night)
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Snowstorm #6 of this month.. Might of been more smaller ones I lost track.
Anyway .. Current Map..
All that moisture in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas is the storm. Follow the Upper Flow (18,000') Orange lines. That Upper Low will head to Great Lakes then head East. A new Coastal low will form.
Cool stuff, haven't posted in weather in ages, but this winter has been a strange one (which is saying something living a few blocks from Lake Michigan)!
Winter on the Great Lakes is always variable, but February was so warm, outside doing yard stuff, then wham, many inches of wet snow! We're due for a few tonight, too, I guess, but never assume until it actually shows up!
National Weather Service Taunton MA
700 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017
Highlights
* Snow sleet and freezing rain north of the Pike Fri into Sat
* Rain snow and sleet changing to rain south of the Pike
* Several inches of snow/sleet accumulation and light ice
accumulation possible north of the Pike with greatest risk over
higher elevations
Friday through Saturday...
Models agree on overall pattern with potent mid level low over Ohio
valley tracking south of New Eng with intensifying secondary low
tracking near 40N Fri night into Sat. There are differences with the
interaction of this mid level low with northern stream trof in
Canada which impacts QPF and thermal profile. GFS is weaker with
northern stream trof and less interaction which translates to a
weaker low level jet and a bit less QPF but much colder thermal
profile. GFS would suggest mostly snow north of the Pike with
potential for up to a foot, especially higher elevations. However,
NAM and ECMWF to a lesser extent are stronger with the northern
stream trof with stronger low level jet, heavier QPF but much more
aggressive with warm nose above 850 mb. This would imply less snow
but a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain.
A very uncertain ptype and snowfall forecast as minor changes in
thermal profile will result in much different outcomes. We are still
48-72h out in the model world so really can`t lock into any one
solution as changes are likely. Due to uncertainty we used a blend
of model temp profiles to derive snow and ice accum.
Timing and precip types/accumulation...
Initial shot of warm advection precip will overspread SNE Fri
morning assocd with the mid level warm front. The column is
starting out rather cold but warmer air in the 850-700 mb layer will
be approaching from the SW. Expect snow or mixed snow/rain/sleet
south of the Pike and especially near the coast as warmer air aloft
moves up from the SW. North of the Pike expect mainly snow on
Friday. Precipitation will be heavy at times late Fri and especially
Fri night into early Sat as the secondary low tracks to the
south and comma head moves across the region.
The biggest uncertainty is how far north the warm nose aloft gets.
We will mention a mix of snow sleet and freezing rain north of the
pike Fri night.
Precip should begin to taper off Sat afternoon as the low moves east
of New Eng and may transition back to snow before ending as
deeper cold air move back southward.
Potential for 6+ inches of snow north of the Pike with greatest risk
over higher elevations, so we issued a winter storm watch for this
area. Some ice accumulation is possible as well if the warm layer
advances northward. South of the Pike across CT/RI and SE MA expect
amounts mainly under 2 inches and confined to the grass and trees
due to temps remaining above freezing. However, this is not a high
confidence forecast due to uncertainty in precip type.
Gusty NE winds developing along the coast during Sat and may need
wind advisories for gusts over 40 mph
Monroe, CT: 1.0-1.5 in of rain.
LaGuardia Airport, NY: 1.5-2.0 in of rain.
Bradley International Airport, CT: 5-8 in of snow.
Agawam, MA: 5-8 in of snow.
Amherst, MA: 8-11 in of snow.
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