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lower sun angle makes it feel less intense? Dewpoints in the low 70s, with the approaching cold front should a good setup for severe thunderstorms. Except the lapse rate isn't steep, so the storms will be patchy at best:
Tricky forecast tonight. The high heat and humidity resulted in
very high CAPE values for our region. Most unstable CAPE values
were between 2,500-3,000 J/kg, with mixed layer CAPE values
between 1,500-2,000 J/kg. Despite this, our region remains
fairly capped this afternoon due to poor mid level lapse rates
and low shear.
The complication in the forecast tonight will be how quickly the
CAPE values drop after sunset, and how quickly stronger shear
arrives. It will be delicate balance. At this time, thinking
strong convection may arrive east of the Berkshires between 8
and 10 PM, then weaken as it moves east from there. Helicity
values in the 0-1km AGL layer range between 150-300 m2/s2. This
would mean at least a very low risk for a tornado as these
storms move across our region overnight.
The other risks from any strong thunderstorms tonight will be
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Thinking any flooding
risk tonight will be very localized as storms should be moving
rather quickly. Training storms also appear to be unlikely.
Hot and humid day here. Looks like the dewpoint maxed out at 75 F/24 C around noon. Severe Thunderstorm Watch until midnight. Looking very cool by Thursday with highs only in the low 70s.
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