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Preliminary results from an international panel of scientists examining the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia heat wave of late June 2021: it is almost certain the record temperatures could not have occurred naturally.
"...combining the results from the analysis of climate models and weather observations, an event, defined as daily maximum temperatures (TXx) in the heatwave region, as rare as 1 in a 1000 years would have been at least 150 times rarer without human-induced climate change."
"Looking into the future, in a world with 2°C of global warming (0.8°C warmer than today which at current emission levels would be reached as early as the 2040s), this event would have been another degree hotter. An event like this – currently estimated to occur only once every 1000 years, would occur roughly every 5 to 10 years in that future world with 2°C of global warming."
Record cold arctic outbreaks would be virtually impossible for areas east of the Rockies without human caused climate change
No, not virtually impossible, but human caused climate change makes midwestern cold snaps more likely. This is called the "warm Arctic cold continents" phenomenon and these types of deep freezes have occurred in North America and Europe. This was observed in 2010 and thereafter:
"Winter 2009/10 and December 2010 showed a unique connectivity between the Arctic and more southern weather patterns when the typical polar vortex was replaced by high geopotential heights over the central Arctic and low heights over mid-latitudes that resulted in record snow and low temperatures, a warm Arctic—cold continents pattern." James E. Overland, Kevin R. Wood & Muyin Wang (2011) Warm Arctic—cold continents: climate impacts of the newly open Arctic Sea, Polar Research, 30:1, DOI: 10.3402/polar.v30i0.15787
In other words, the warming Arctic decreases the energy gradient between the poles and the middle latitudes, which weakens the polar jet, which allows cold Arctic surface air to sag south down into the Midwest. See the attached diagram (source: Cohen, J., Zhang, X., Francis, J. et al. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 20–29 (2020)). The "normal" weather pattern is on the left, while the global warming disturbed pattern is on the right.
Last edited by Elliott_CA; 07-08-2021 at 04:15 PM..
No, not virtually impossible, but human caused climate change makes midwestern cold snaps more likely. This is called the "warm Arctic cold continents" phenomenon and these types of deep freezes have occurred in North America and Europe. This was observed in 2010 and thereafter:
"Winter 2009/10 and December 2010 showed a unique connectivity between the Arctic and more southern weather patterns when the typical polar vortex was replaced by high geopotential heights over the central Arctic and low heights over mid-latitudes that resulted in record snow and low temperatures, a warm Arctic—cold continents pattern." James E. Overland, Kevin R. Wood & Muyin Wang (2011) Warm Arctic—cold continents: climate impacts of the newly open Arctic Sea, Polar Research, 30:1, DOI: 10.3402/polar.v30i0.15787
In other words, the warming Arctic decreases the energy gradient between the poles and the middle latitudes, which weakens the polar jet, which allows cold Arctic surface air to sag south down into the Midwest. See the attached diagram (source: Cohen, J., Zhang, X., Francis, J. et al. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 20–29 (2020)). The "normal" weather pattern is on the left, while the global warming disturbed pattern is on the right.
The Midwest is supposed to become a desert too and that hasn’t happened yet either, in fact, much of the eastern Midwest and Indiana specifically is trending wetter and not drier like those wackos said it would btw you said the Midwest was going to become subarctic and that has not been happening so far yet either, I don’t know where you’re going with this but Indiana hasn’t become a subarctic desert climate yet and it may not ever become a subarctic desert climate, even with human caused climate change
Last edited by Isleofpalms85; 07-08-2021 at 05:30 PM..
Preliminary results from an international panel of scientists examining the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia heat wave of late June 2021: it is almost certain the record temperatures could not have occurred naturally.
"...combining the results from the analysis of climate models and weather observations, an event, defined as daily maximum temperatures (TXx) in the heatwave region, as rare as 1 in a 1000 years would have been at least 150 times rarer without human-induced climate change."
"Looking into the future, in a world with 2°C of global warming (0.8°C warmer than today which at current emission levels would be reached as early as the 2040s), this event would have been another degree hotter. An event like this – currently estimated to occur only once every 1000 years, would occur roughly every 5 to 10 years in that future world with 2°C of global warming."
I'm sure the PNW saw similar conditions in the 9th century when it was in a decades long drought.
But yes a warming world we will see more extreme heat occurrences
Except for us in the Midwest where we've been seeing less
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott_CA
No, not virtually impossible, but human caused climate change makes midwestern cold snaps more likely. This is called the "warm Arctic cold continents" phenomenon and these types of deep freezes have occurred in North America and Europe. This was observed in 2010 and thereafter:
"Winter 2009/10 and December 2010 showed a unique connectivity between the Arctic and more southern weather patterns when the typical polar vortex was replaced by high geopotential heights over the central Arctic and low heights over mid-latitudes that resulted in record snow and low temperatures, a warm Arctic—cold continents pattern." James E. Overland, Kevin R. Wood & Muyin Wang (2011) Warm Arctic—cold continents: climate impacts of the newly open Arctic Sea, Polar Research, 30:1, DOI: 10.3402/polar.v30i0.15787
In other words, the warming Arctic decreases the energy gradient between the poles and the middle latitudes, which weakens the polar jet, which allows cold Arctic surface air to sag south down into the Midwest. See the attached diagram (source: Cohen, J., Zhang, X., Francis, J. et al. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 20–29 (2020)). The "normal" weather pattern is on the left, while the global warming disturbed pattern is on the right.
The Midwest is supposed to become a desert too and that hasn’t happened yet either, in fact, much of the eastern Midwest and Indiana specifically is trending wetter and not drier like those wackos said it would btw you said the Midwest was going to become subarctic and that has not been happening so far yet either, I don’t know where you’re going with this but Indiana hasn’t become a subarctic desert climate yet and it may not ever become a subarctic desert climate, even with human caused climate change
Rome was not built in a day. It takes years for the changes.
The Midwest is supposed to become a desert too and that hasn’t happened yet either, in fact, much of the eastern Midwest and Indiana specifically is trending wetter and not drier like those wackos said it would btw you said the Midwest was going to become subarctic and that has not been happening so far yet either, I don’t know where you’re going with this but Indiana hasn’t become a subarctic desert climate yet and it may not ever become a subarctic desert climate, even with human caused climate change
The theory is massive agriculture and irrigations is the reason why the Midwest is not seeing an increase of very hot days and is trending down. Let's say that's plausible but then how come our late Springs and early Autumn aren't seeing an increase in very hot days before and after the corn/soybean are planted and the farms are bare of vegetation???
Wait really? My former friend in Chicago said that it has been a very hot summer there this year with lots of 90s with high humidity, way more than normal, and he says Chicago rarely ever gets to 90 with high humidity when he was going up in the 2000s and early 2010s. How has it been there?
The theory is massive agriculture and irrigations is the reason why the Midwest is not seeing an increase of very hot days and is trending down. Let's say that's plausible but then how come our late Springs and early Autumn aren't seeing an increase in very hot days before and after the corn/soybean are planted and the farms are bare of vegetation???
Still. Indiana hasn’t started looking and feeling like far western Kansas or eastern Colorado like those environmentalist wackos said it would. They predicted Indianapolis would feel more like Goodland Kansas with human caused climate change
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btw you said the Midwest was going to become subarctic and that has not been happening so far yet either, I don’t know where you’re going with this but Indiana hasn’t become a subarctic desert climate yet and it may not ever become a subarctic desert climate, even with human caused climate change
