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Random dude is right. I do not see the economy returning to pre recession levels. In fact I see massive underemployment in the future. We are becoming a low wage service economy. Our labor rate has dropped to 63.6% working it keeps falling. Since January of 2009 8 million people have dropped out of the labor market. Tons more dropped out last month which lower the rate to 8.1%
If those 8 million came back into the labor market the unemployment rate would be 10.9% We are not even adding jobs at replacement level 115k last month. We need a 150k a month just to keep pace with the growth of our population. The unemployment rate is dropping only because the labor market is getting smaller not because any jobs are being created. Once you add in the underemployed the picture is that much worse.
Tons of college grads are underemployed. And it is not just the kids who majored in art. I was working as a temp. The guy in the cube next to me had been a temp over 2 years. His degree was in IT he made 10 bucks an hour. Same as me. They offered him a full time job at 10.60 an hour. But he had been offered 19 an hour at another job. It lasted a year company went belly up. He was out of work awhile landed another job. Been their maybe a year company now having huge layoffs. Most likely he will be out the door soon. Back looking at 10 dollar an hour temp jobs. He is a real good worker. But at the end of the day it is about the bottom line. Do more with less good skill sets or good degrees sounds great. But we are on a race to the bottom in terms of wages. I am sure the engineer who sold me paint at Lowes would agree. Stable living wage jobs are becoming a thing of the past. Low wage service jobs are the future. Even alot of smart people with better degrees and skill sets will end up there. Too many people with good skill sets not enough good paying jobs.
There are good jobs for good pay. They come with experience. Part of the issue is the employment market has contracted to such an extent, global competition, and a glut of college grads. Add to that the sheer volume of debt many possess, and they have to accept any type of job just to try to pay it down. I think the debt part is making them into pseudo slaves, but give it time. College doesn't give you skills. That comes with time and experience. After earning a measurable skillset, you can bargain for a better wage. Unfortunately, entry level opportunities where you can learn are hard to come by, and there are tons of people chasing them.
For the time being, your going to get paid crap money for what will probably be an easy job. Take my word for it, my life was a lot less stressful when I didn't have money, and didn't have decent employment. When I get burned out on it, I jump to mediocre paying jobs that cover the bills as a form of vacation. There is more to life than money, and it's usually when you accumulate a little that you find that out. Just worry about building a resume for the time being and things will work out.
The economy is never going to return to pre recession levels, and it certainly will never again be at a point where there isnt significant underemployment.
Why would it return to the levels of an inflated bubble? What one thinks is underemployment depends on the perspective. I saw many earning a lot during the bubble who got laid off and they had few skills. One could argue many were making more than they were worth and now they are making less. Will balance out over time.
Why would it return to the levels of an inflated bubble? What one thinks is underemployment depends on the perspective. I saw many earning a lot during the bubble who got laid off and they had few skills. One could argue many were making more than they were worth and now they are making less. Will balance out over time.
They were making what the economy could sustain. Yes, a lot of it was phony, but it's no different than many government jobs today. Just look at the largest industry in Washington DC. If your not working for the government there, you must deal with the inflated price of real estate and rent, due to all those government workers with secure jobs. This is not unusual in smaller countries, where the government is the largest employer and private sector workers make crap.
My point is, people make what their worth relative to the market, and that waxes and wanes with the economy. A guy who builds homes for a living may have been worth $30/hr in 2004, but he would be hard pressed to find that in this economy, where new housing starts are minimal. Unfortunately, a lot of people are unfortunately only worth $10/hr in this economy, because people like them are everywhere, and desperate. Hard to imagine the economy growing much with the consumer base not having wages to support healthy consumption, and credit being reeled in.
They were making what the economy could sustain. Yes, a lot of it was phony, but it's no different than many government jobs today. Just look at the largest industry in Washington DC. If your not working for the government there, you must deal with the inflated price of real estate and rent, due to all those government workers with secure jobs. This is not unusual in smaller countries, where the government is the largest employer and private sector workers make crap.
My point is, people make what their worth relative to the market, and that waxes and wanes with the economy. A guy who builds homes for a living may have been worth $30/hr in 2004, but he would be hard pressed to find that in this economy, where new housing starts are minimal. Unfortunately, a lot of people are unfortunately only worth $10/hr in this economy, because people like them are everywhere, and desperate. Hard to imagine the economy growing much with the consumer base not having wages to support healthy consumption, and credit being reeled in.
DC is an isolated example and not a good comparison.
What I'm saying is that person making $30 should have realized their wages were inflated and kept lifestyle at levels that were the norm throughout most of their career. If you are worth $20 on average you should live on $20 when you are making $30 so you can live that same lifestyle when you are making $10.
You never heard people say I'm making more than I was worth during the boom but you hear plenty talking about making less than they are worth now.
DC is an isolated example and not a good comparison.
What I'm saying is that person making $30 should have realized their wages were inflated and kept lifestyle at levels that were the norm throughout most of their career. If you are worth $20 on average you should live on $20 when you are making $30 so you can live that same lifestyle when you are making $10.
You never heard people say I'm making more than I was worth during the boom but you hear plenty talking about making less than they are worth now.
And by that logic, many accountants and engineers should have also had the foresight to see that they would be laid off, as many were. People of all different professions have taken a hit. When someone making 100K a year goes on unemployment, is it their fault that they were living a 50K a year lifestyle? What has happened has hit people of all different walks of life. By your logic, no one can safely live a life of comfort. You can't even afford a modest lifestyle on what unemployment pays.
Hindsight is 20/20 of course. If everyone only knew what they knew today. But I will agree, people SHOULD have been saving more. The problem I saw... With the housing bubble, even a modest home would entail taking a huge mortgage and being saddled with a huge monthly payment. Hard to save much. Saving 300 or 400 a month simply won't cut it for these prolonged recessions. People of all walks of life have been wiped out as a result. And when they do find jobs, many are paying peanuts and won't help much with regards to those precession debt obligations. This housing bubble has proved to have some nasty consequences for the common folk.
Just a thought... If you were making $30/hr 10 years ago, how were you to know you would only be making $20/hr today? If anything, one might expect those wages to increase a bit with inflation. Maybe if we all had a crystal ball perhaps...
And by that logic, many accountants and engineers should have also had the foresight to see that they would be laid off, as many were. People of all different professions have taken a hit. When someone making 100K a year goes on unemployment, is it their fault that they were living a 50K a year lifestyle? What has happened has hit people of all different walks of life. By your logic, no one can safely live a life of comfort. You can't even afford a modest lifestyle on what unemployment pays.
Hindsight is 20/20 of course.
...
Most white collar professionals I know who were laid off, in 90s, last decade, or this one saw it coming months, and sometimes a year or more, ahead of time. Most did start saving as soon as they realized it. Many blue collar workers also see them coming well ahead of time.
Most white collar professionals I know who were laid off, in 90s, last decade, or this one saw it coming months, and sometimes a year or more, ahead of time. Most did start saving as soon as they realized it. Many blue collar workers also see them coming well ahead of time.
By the time you find out, it's often too late. I didn't get a notice when I got laid off in 2009. Heck, we were all working OT like crazy the month before half the plant got the layoff notice. The news keeps trying to convince people things are getting better. At this point, most of us know better. 3 years ago, some of us wanted to believe at least.
By the time you find out, it's often too late. I didn't get a notice when I got laid off in 2009. Heck, we were all working OT like crazy the month before half the plant got the layoff notice. The news keeps trying to convince people things are getting better. At this point, most of us know better. 3 years ago, some of us wanted to believe at least.
Not in my experience. My last 4 corps, all financial results were shared with all employees at quarterly meetings within 4 weeks of quarter end. Many literally slept through the meetings, many listened intently. The key things to watch is operating profit versus prior years, plus backlog/order trends. At the departmental level, the same stuff matters for your business unit. Also watch capital expenditures-if new machines and tools are not being purchased at the rates they were last year, 2 years ago, 5 years ago, get ready for the padlock. If purchases of this stuff are healthy, the execs have faith in the future of the company.
OT is NEVER a good indicator by itself. Our local facility ran a department 60 hours/week for 2 months. Why-simple, while they had a few big orders, backlog stinks, so they were told NOT to add employees in the department. But they worked more OT than ever.
Yea, the news tries to tell us everything is improving. We're replacing living wage jobs with jobs where you could work 60 hours a week and still fall under the poverty line, no benefits, no vacation or sick leave, no job security, no retirement plans, nothing.
Those are the jobs we are creating. It's understandable people hold out on unemployment as long as possible. You often make more sitting on your ass than you would working at any of these places.
And let's be real, it's impossible to get full time work in retail unless you're management. They'll put you just under full time.
And if it does pay a living wage, or close to it, it's part time/temp/contract work. You're doing work that should pay far more than the entry level pay you're earning, but all the entry level work is done by desperate college grads taking unpaid internships. They took the internships so companies would look at them as having experience, but all they have experience in from the internship is clerical work and catering.
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