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I think the report's projections rely on the premise that the existing Spanish speaking population and their descendants will not become English speakers. If that trend existed historically among immigrants to the U.S., it would be the world's largest German speaking country.
Significantly, Spanish is in a serious decline in New Mexico, the state that currently has the highest percentage of Spanish speakers. Recent Mexicans immigrants are speaking it, but the increasingly middle class Spanish-American 'colonial' population has largely relegated Spanish to a second language.
The thing is that government and business in the US are conducted in English, and will be for some time if mot always. Even with tens of millions of Spanish speakers and large swaths of spanish-speaking majority areas, it won't be replacing English any time soon. Certainly not in our lifetimes.
The thing is that government and business in the US are conducted in English, and will be for some time if mot always. Even with tens of millions of Spanish speakers and large swaths of spanish-speaking majority areas, it won't be replacing English any time soon. Certainly not in our lifetimes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ABQConvict
I think the report's projections rely on the premise that the existing Spanish speaking population and their descendants will not become English speakers. If that trend existed historically among immigrants to the U.S., it would be the world's largest German speaking country.
Significantly, Spanish is in a serious decline in New Mexico, the state that currently has the highest percentage of Spanish speakers. Recent Mexicans immigrants are speaking it, but the increasingly middle class Spanish-American 'colonial' population has largely relegated Spanish to a second language.
I used to argue that Spanish will always be around based on my experience in California cities. However, it is now clear that in many places, it is in decline.
However, and this is not a slight as the Latino community so bare with me; the German and other immigrant populations before them pretty much forced themselves to assimilate. Even anglicizing their names (Mueller to Miller for example). Latinos are hanging onto their culture more fiercely which, as far as I'm concerned, is a good thing.
I used to argue that Spanish will always be around based on my experience in California cities. However, it is now clear that in many places, it is in decline.
However, and this is not a slight as the Latino community so bare with me; the German and other immigrant populations before them pretty much forced themselves to assimilate. Even anglicizing their names (Mueller to Miller for example).Latinos are hanging onto their culture more fiercely which, as far as I'm concerned, is a good thing.
That might be because we are close to the homeland. Also, it really is mixed. I see Spanish being lost by the 2nd generation, if there is no interest in holding on to it. Since it is not a part of mainstream American culture, lots of kids don't want to speak it. They want to be more a part of the popular tribes to fit in (ex: Hip Hop).
But for some of us who grew up on the border, we picked up MORE of an interest to hold on to it because we saw that we had access to a whole other world of language and culture (all of Latin America, and even Spain). At least that is how I saw it.
French will be the second most important language rather than Spanish or Mandarin.
Like English, it is one of the most prominent languages especially in world politics and culture. The United Nations is one example for sure.
Mandarin itself does not have the same popularity that languages like English, French and maybe Japanese did especially as far as finance, entertainment and soft culture are concerned. Aside from trade and business, there is really no other incentive for foreigners to learn Mandarin.
Spanish is useful only in countries or regions where people are less likely to migrate to especially because of the lack of economic and career opportunities.
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How is French a 'prominent' language? It's only spoken by 270 million people!
The only developed places where it is spoken in consist of France and Quebec - i.e. not very many places. So again as i've said before it will never ever become a 2nd language of the world.
The French seem to think that they are powerful country, well they are going to fall on their behind pretty soon. It's time for a reality check.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chava61
Actually I think Mandarin Chinese will become the 2nd international spoken language of the world rather than Spanish in the future.
I don't think so, its only spoken in and around China. If it had spread out to other areas like Australia, Africa etc perhaps but if its just concentrated in a small area of the world then its not going to become very common.
What makes it harder to become a 2nd language is of course the alphabet..
Location: Northern Ireland and temporarily England
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 415_s2k
The thing is that government and business in the US are conducted in English, and will be for some time if mot always. Even with tens of millions of Spanish speakers and large swaths of spanish-speaking majority areas, it won't be replacing English any time soon. Certainly not in our lifetimes.
A really interesting article about Spanish in the U.S., its position globally and some -my POV- far fetched projections.
US now has more Spanish speakers than Spain
The Spanish organization Instituto Cervantes (IC) has been proclaiming this statement that USA is the second largest Spanish speaking Nation on earth for some time. IC was formed in 1990 when the Latino population of the USA in the 1990 census was 22.35 million (slightly larger than the population of Peru in 1990). But not all people who identify as "Latino" in the census can speak Spanish. Over the next 25 years the Latino population of the USA grew to pass Argentina, Columbia, and finally Spain.
The IC has made this announcement a number of times, but they used to have to count Spanish language students. Now it is growing increasingly clear that the Spanish speakers in the USA outnumber Spain and all other countries except Mexico.
The quote from the article: US will have 138 million Spanish speakers by 2050, making it the biggest Spanish-speaking nation on Earth, with Spanish the mother tongue of almost a third of its citizens.
Some thought should be given to that statement as the population of Mexico is already about 120 million, and it still has a very young median age compared to the USA. In fact Mexico is expected to reach a "peak population" after which it will begin to decrease in size. Many nations like Japan and most of the countries in Eastern Europe have reached a "peak population" with Hungary reaching a peak as early as 1980.
However, I don't think Mexico will peak at 138 million. My guess is more like 155 million. Only a small percentage of Mexicans don't speak Spanish (mostly indigenous women). So I think 2050 is a little optimistic as to when USA will surpass Mexico.
However, as USA has no predicted peak population in the century, eventually the Spanish speaking population in the USA will surpass the population of Mexico. It probably will be after 2050.
However, Mandarin may push itself onto the world stage as the chinese begin to travel. With native speakers pushing a billion, it may displace Spanish as the world's second most important language.
English has far more second language speakers than native language speakers. It is unlikely to be displaced in the next half century as the most important language in the world.
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