If you compare the total number of cases in the US each day, they pretty clearly correspond with the number of cases in Italy 10 days previous. That is until March 19 in the USA/ March 9 in Italy.
Will the numbers in Italy be a good prediction of where things are headed in the USA? The USA has a population 5.4 times the size of Italy (327.2 million to 60.4 million), so it stands to reason that the total number of cases in the USA will eventually exceed that of Italy, simply because there are more people that are part of the statistical group. It's hard to see on the graph, but so far, the death totals are
significantly lower in the USA than Italy. Whether this trend will continue, it's hard to say. But according to Statista, 22.8% Italians
are over the age of 70 versus
15.81% in the USA. Still, despite the disproportionate amount of people over 70, there are almost 4X the total amount of people over 70 years of age in the USA than in Italy.
This article points to some of the reasons as to why the death toll is so high in Italy.
While the USA's death rate pales in comparison to Italy's, Germany has the lowest death rate, with just 44 deaths out of 17,372 cases (0.25%). The average world-wide is 4.10%.
All data was pulled from
this website.
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