COVID-19 pandemic vis-a-vis massive volcanic eruptions or earthquakes

[yofie]

Originally Posted by Milky Way Resident

It would depend on the severity of the eruption. We've not had a supervolcano erupt in recent times and all events have been very localized. This pandemic has global reach already, though it's true toll remains uncertain as it's an ongoing event. It's already having a ton of economic ramifications, that are being felt.

If there's one area where a volcanic eruption/earthquake can cause more harm, it's in the material realm. Buildings collapse, bridges fall... As it stands to reason, this virus won't be able to cause structural damage to infrastructure.

Here, I'm not even talking about a supervolcano like at Toba 74,000 years ago or at Yellowstone hundreds of thousands of years ago; the pandemic equivalent of that would be something like the Black Plague of medieval times.

When it comes to volcanic eruptions, there's the material damages plus deaths on the local/regional level (if not also beyond the region in question) that take place immediately after the disaster (and by the way, volcanoes can erupt over a period of days or weeks or months, not just once). And then there's the global climate ramifications for up to several years down the line.

[yofie]

Originally Posted by OyCrumbler

I think you should outline more details of this eruption, because its location and scale make a huge difference in destructiveness.

The general idea of whether or not there can be a volcanic eruption that rivals COVID-19 in destructiveness is yes though, since at the worst it’d include at least a year of significant and fairly rapid climate change on top of its potential massive direct destruction depending on where it happens.

Since the last time this thread was active, in late March when the pandemic had just begun a couple of weeks beforehand, I've thought a lot more about the pandemic-volcano similarities/differences. Here's a scenario I've concocted that might just be the volcanic equivalent of COVID-19:

If there had been a colossal eruption in or right around eastern Java earlier this year (say, on March 11, when in our reality this pandemic was officially declared as such by the WHO) instead of a pandemic breaking out in China and spreading out from there like wildfire, it would have ruined the economy of not just Java but of all of Indonesia. I'm saying this because Java really is the nerve centre of Indonesia, and given that many ashfall and ash plume patterns drift in a general westward direction in that part of the world at that time of year. By extension, the economy of SE Asia in general would have been severely affected as well. I mean, Indonesia is used to eruptions all the time, but the sort of eruption I'm mentioning would be on a whole different scale, something not seen so far in that country since the Krakatoa eruption. I'm talking about at least on the scale of Krakatoa - perhaps not Tambora necessarily, given that the latter's magnitude takes place only 1-2x a millennium, vs. Krakatoa's magnitude taking place 1-2x a century. It might be the most exactly similar to the eruption of Peru's Huaynaputina in 1600 (420 years ago), as that eruption was only slightly more powerful than Krakatoa but may have impacted the global climate even more than Tambora.

In such an eruption, many flights would have been cancelled throughout SE Asia and possibly beyond as a result of the resulting ash cloud, and not for about 10 days as was the case with the Icelandic one 10 years ago, but for probably a good month or two (though COVID-19's curtailment of flights is much further reaching still and much more comprehensively global). To add insult to injury, materials from that sort of eruption would have spread around the world in 2-3 months (thus, by now the globe would be covered in fine ash, sulfur droplets, etc.) and for 2021, in that hypothetical situation, there would be the real possibility of a dimmer sun, global cooling, and large-scale crop failure, not to mention wacky and/or unseasonable weather. One of the few immediate advantages in all of this would be fiery sunrises and sunsets all over the world.

Such an eruption would have been the first one of its size in the digital age, just as this pandemic is the first major one of the digital age.

[Zoisite]

The global climate has already become effected because of the pandemic causing so much human activity/industry/travel to be curtailed or come to a full stop. The effects started becoming notable in March and have become more extensive with the passage of time over the past 5 months. For one example, the impacts on urban air quality in various countries: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0581-y

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[yofie]

Originally Posted by Zoisite

The global climate has already become effected because of the pandemic causing so much human activity/industry/travel to be curtailed or come to a full stop. The effects started becoming notable in March and have become more extensive with the passage of time over the past 5 months. For one example, the impacts on urban air quality in various countries: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0581-y.

I wouldn't conflate air quality with climate change, as they're two separate issues. Heck, as a skeptic of the dogma of man-made climate change, I think that air pollution is much more of an issue than climate change, the latter being mainly natural variability with a certain assist from man-made greenhouse gas emissions. Also, something like 1816's "year without a summer" is much more genuine of a climate crisis than what we call "climate change" or a "climate emergency".