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There are also some good youtube on this too...but they are transforming Addis Abana with a large riverfront project and other massive transformations.
Dubai happened thanks to the massive amounts of oil money in the UAE. I dont think that same type of money is in Ethiopia to spur that kind of growth. And even after all that growth, Dubai still needed massive bailouts of cash from the other Emirates. However, I definitely think Addis could become a hub of that East Africa region. The only potential downside is the fact that there is so much turmoil in almost all the neighboring countries such as Yemen, Somalia and Sudan. That could scare off the potential investors you would need to build up the critical mass of development in the long term.
Dubai happened thanks to the massive amounts of oil money in the UAE. I dont think that same type of money is in Ethiopia to spur that kind of growth. And even after all that growth, Dubai still needed massive bailouts of cash from the other Emirates. However, I definitely think Addis could become a hub of that East Africa region. The only potential downside is the fact that there is so much turmoil in almost all the neighboring countries such as Yemen, Somalia and Sudan. That could scare off the potential investors you would need to build up the critical mass of development in the long term.
I actually disagree, Addis Ababa doesn't need to be a regional hub of East Africa. While their's potential in Addis Ababa to become an East African hub, Ethiopia as a whole has more people than the Arab Peninsula (77 million people with only, in fact the Arab Peninsula+Levant+Iraq (i.e the Middle East outside of Egypt/Iran/Turkey) has only 160 million people. Ethiopia has 115,000,000 people and is projected to have 170-200 million by 2050 (using lower estimates).
Arab+Levant+Iraq isn't even first world today uniformly but around 0.775 HDI wise, even when including Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Palestine.
If Ethiopia just maintained it's growth rates in development from the last ten years, which is of course easier said than done. It could reach the development of the region I highlighted above, which contains UAE, Israel Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, with even more people. Of course like I said this region also contains Yemen, Palestine and Syria and it's unlikely so much developmental diversity will occur in one country.
But Ethiopia in 2050 is a region onto itself. The population is massive, Addis Ababa which is estimated at 4.5 million could easily swell to 15 million if not 20 million people by 2050. The second biggest city in the region, Adama/Nazret isn't even above 500,000 people and is well within commuting distance to Addis Ababa. I'm sure as Ethiopia chugs along we will see various regional cities pop up and form corridors, areas such as Jijiga-Harar-Dire Dawa could form an urban region of 2 million people, Gondar-Bahir Dar could be 3 million. Hawassa-Shashemene 2 million, Dessie-Kombolcha 1 million etc.
Their is no need to consider the instability regionally when the country by itself with even a weakening in the economy is destined to be a trillion dollar economy.
Nigeria is the same even with instability within the borders (rather than outside) in the Niger Delta and Borno state Lagos still manages to be fifth largest economy in Africa with 150 billion dollar economy.
Ethiopia has massive potential and if constant growth can hold out for even two or three decades, as it has in the last two decades we will see the rise of a giant. 30 years from now Somalia could be a more developed failed state, Djibouti and Eritrea could still have their own issues, and South Sudan could still be a mess or part of the EAC, but we are still talking about a trillion dollar economy, it wouldn't need to be a mess. The only issue is that as you mentioned the five of the six coastal countries near it are all messes (Yemen, Eritrea, Sudan, Djibouti, Somalia and Kenya being the outlier).
I actually disagree, Addis Ababa doesn't need to be a regional hub of East Africa. While their's potential in Addis Ababa to become an East African hub, Ethiopia as a whole has more people than the Arab Peninsula (77 million people with only, in fact the Arab Peninsula+Levant+Iraq (i.e the Middle East outside of Egypt/Iran/Turkey) has only 160 million people. Ethiopia has 115,000,000 people and is projected to have 170-200 million by 2050 (using lower estimates).
Arab+Levant+Iraq isn't even first world today uniformly but around 0.775 HDI wise, even when including Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Palestine.
If Ethiopia just maintained it's growth rates in development from the last ten years, which is of course easier said than done. It could reach the development of the region I highlighted above, which contains UAE, Israel Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, with even more people. Of course like I said this region also contains Yemen, Palestine and Syria and it's unlikely so much developmental diversity will occur in one country.
But Ethiopia in 2050 is a region onto itself. The population is massive, Addis Ababa which is estimated at 4.5 million could easily swell to 15 million if not 20 million people by 2050. The second biggest city in the region, Adama/Nazret isn't even above 500,000 people and is well within commuting distance to Addis Ababa. I'm sure as Ethiopia chugs along we will see various regional cities pop up and form corridors, areas such as Jijiga-Harar-Dire Dawa could form an urban region of 2 million people, Gondar-Bahir Dar could be 3 million. Hawassa-Shashemene 2 million, Dessie-Kombolcha 1 million etc.
Their is no need to consider the instability regionally when the country by itself with even a weakening in the economy is destined to be a trillion dollar economy.
Nigeria is the same even with instability within the borders (rather than outside) in the Niger Delta and Borno state Lagos still manages to be fifth largest economy in Africa with 150 billion dollar economy.
Ethiopia has massive potential and if constant growth can hold out for even two or three decades, as it has in the last two decades we will see the rise of a giant. 30 years from now Somalia could be a more developed failed state, Djibouti and Eritrea could still have their own issues, and South Sudan could still be a mess or part of the EAC, but we are still talking about a trillion dollar economy, it wouldn't need to be a mess. The only issue is that as you mentioned the five of the six coastal countries near it are all messes (Yemen, Eritrea, Sudan, Djibouti, Somalia and Kenya being the outlier).
Good points. My thoughts:
Having a large population is an asset only if the majority of the population has the spending power to stimulate demand for goods and services, in other words at least middle class or higher. A population mired in poverty the way that Ethiopia's currently is doesnt do anything for growing the economy. Look at Bangladesh. Population of 160 million, but the economy is miniscule due to rampant poverty.
In my opinion, to lift the population out of poverty into the middle class requires one of the following:
1) Heavy investment from outside the country (an example Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand received massive investment from Japanese companies in particular now both are trillion dollar economies, same with China today).
2) Discovery of natural resources that can be exploited such as oil, natural gas etc
Combined with one or two above you also need a government that can effectively use available resources to provide security, stability, educate the population to the standard needed for investors etc.
But Ethiopia in 2050 is a region onto itself. The population is massive, Addis Ababa which is estimated at 4.5 million could easily swell to 15 million if not 20 million people by 2050. The second biggest city in the region, Adama/Nazret isn't even above 500,000 people and is well within commuting distance to Addis Ababa. I'm sure as Ethiopia chugs along we will see various regional cities pop up and form corridors, areas such as Jijiga-Harar-Dire Dawa could form an urban region of 2 million people, Gondar-Bahir Dar could be 3 million. Hawassa-Shashemene 2 million, Dessie-Kombolcha 1 million etc.
Ethiopia has 100-million people. It would ten times the present UAE wealth, to distribute enough to avoid very serious socio-economic issues upcountry.
Ethiopia has 100-million people. It would ten times the present UAE wealth, to distribute enough to avoid very serious socio-economic issues upcountry.
I believe the Dubai reference is a city-to-city comparison related to the building boom and a transformation of the city of Addis Ababa... (as opposed to a nation-to-nation comparison in wealth distribution)
Last edited by Tiger Beer; 09-07-2020 at 10:19 AM..
I believe the Dubai reference is a city-to-city comparison related to the building boom and a transformation of the city of Addis Ababa... (as opposed to a nation-to-nation comparison in wealth distribution)
Dubai would not last long with 90-million impoverished Emirati Bedouins looking in the window and wanting their share. You can't separate the city from the country.
Dubai would not last long with 90-million impoverished Emirati Bedouins looking in the window and wanting their share. You can't separate the city from the country.
Maybe. I was reading about the 1980s Ethiopian Famine that ravished the country; one of the most interesting aspects at that time was there was no evidence of it in Addis Ababa. People were dying of starvation across much of Ethiopia, but few if any were compelled to seek food in Addis itself, and Addis didn't have starving people. I always thought that was interesting.
Equally, Ethiopia has continually had one of the most rural-based societies in the world. Even now, Addis is only 3.3 million while the country is 109 million. While a nice big massive 'city park' COULD draw people in from the country side (which is one of their largest city transformation goals), I can't imagine it would be that big of a rural-side draw.
But, who knows, we'll see as Addis Ababa transforms with new parks and skyscrapers and such.
Maybe. I was reading about the 1980s Ethiopian Famine that ravished the country; one of the most interesting aspects at that time was there was no evidence of it in Addis Ababa. People were dying of starvation across much of Ethiopia, but few if any were compelled to seek food in Addis itself, and Addis didn't have starving people. I always thought that was interesting.
Equally, Ethiopia has continually had one of the most rural-based societies in the world. Even now, Addis is only 3.3 million while the country is 109 million. While a nice big massive 'city park' COULD draw people in from the country side (which is one of their largest city transformation goals), I can't imagine it would be that big of a rural-side draw.
But, who knows, we'll see as Addis Ababa transforms with new parks and skyscrapers and such.
With the 80's famine and famines throughout the ages in Ethiopia they did not ravish the country, people were not dying of starvation across most of Ethiopia. This is incorrect information that has plagued Ethiopia for many years. People from Northern Ethiopia couldn't just relocate to Addis Ababa even though many affected people were relocated to other parts of Ethiopia. What you are asking/writing is equivalent to asking why is there fires in CA or homelessness in CA but not in FL or that because something happened in CA it happened all over the USA. There wasn't a famine in Addis Ababa although there were (are) very poor people. Addis is not the only major city in Ethiopia.
People from the country side for the most part will remain in the countryside those people don't just move. New infrastructure in the capital will draw in people with the $$$ and who are tourist. Other regions are going through updates as well, not as rapid as Addis but improvements are happening every where. Farming is essential to the Ethiopian economy and I don't see this changing. The GERID (dam) will provide water and electrical security that will mitigate issues around drought conditions. BTW millions of people didn't die during the 70's famine nor in the 80's famine for the record - there is no evidence to back up such claims.
With new infrastructure it will benefit everyone in some capacity or another. For some to think otherwise just don't understand development and or economics. Many people that were living in shacks in Addis were given places to live in much better conditions.
Anyways, Ethiopia just like much of Africa will continue to grow and improve its infrastructure it is an exciting time for Africa. Ethiopia doesn't need to be the next Dubai I'm happy with it being Ethiopia - the Lion of Africa.
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