[HsvCharger]

Want to start a debate, which one do you think will have the most growth over next 10 years?

[mimpdaddy]

Mobile, I say that because of whats going on there now, but Montgomery is doing alot of downtown development plus just landed a Hyundai transformer plant and there are talks of another Hyundai auto plant coming to Montgomery.

[cpg35223]

I think Birmingham, Huntsville, and Mobile all have the potential for growth. I think debating which one will have the most is kind of silly.

Huntsville, of course, will be driven by the military and space program. BRAC has been an absolute boon to the area. At the same time, Huntsville remains very much a government town, and is thereby vulnerable to the whims of politicians and the priorities in Washington, DC. To me, the priority of Huntsville should be to diversify its economic base to enjoy continued growth.

Birmingham actually is the most intriguing of the four cities, chiefly because it has gone through some difficulties of late in government and the consolidation of the banking industry. However, several key events, both recent and on the horizon, will likely put the city in a higher growth mode. First, the cleaning out of corruption in local governments seems to have done its job, with an entirely new county commission and Birmingham mayor in place. Second, the region looks as if it has gotten its organizational act together in terms of economic development, rather than the crazy quilt of agencies in the past who devoted most of their energy to fighting turf battles. Third, both the development of the intermodal rail facility in McCalla and the completion of I22 suddenly transform Birmingham into a highly-desirable distribution center. Fourth, the continued expansion of Honda and Mercedes mean corresponding expansion elsewhere in the still-new automotive industry. Add Hyundai, Kia, and Volkswagen within a two-hour drive, and Birmingham occupies a very central geographic position for a lot of manufacturing support. Fifth, the bank acquisition shakeout seems to have abated, giving some stability to what had been a cornerstone of the local economy. Any number of smaller and mid-sized banks are expanding, and using the very deep talent pool in the market to fuel their growth.

Birmingham's economy at the moment is larger than Huntsville's, Mobile's and Montgomery's combined, with Anniston and Tuscaloosa thrown in for good measure. The continued foundational changes taking place in the city at the moment should serve it well in the next few years.

Mobile is a bit of a headscratcher. So much depends on the EADS plant. The new steel plant is a big deal to be sure. It just remains to be seen whether the civic government will prove mature enough to build on that coup, landing similarly sized projects.

Montgomery is probably the market least poised for strong expansion. Until Hyundai came along, the city had no real industry, and still doesn't. It's chief business is government and little else. I'm not really sure how it will grow in the future.

[mimpdaddy]

Originally Posted by cpg35223

Birmingham's economy at the moment is larger than Huntsville's, Mobile's and Montgomery's combined, with Anniston and Tuscaloosa thrown in for good measure. The continued foundational changes taking place in the city at the moment should serve it well in the next few years.

The the topic is which will see the the most growth not which city is the biggest.

[cpg35223]

Originally Posted by mimpdaddy

The the topic is which will see the the most growth not which city is the biggest.

And, as I said at the beginning of my post, that it's a silly thing to debate. In this volatile economy, there is absolutely no way to predict what growth will be next quarter, let alone in the decade to come.

But if you ask me to go out on a limb, I'll say Birmingham and Huntsville will see far higher growth than either Mobile or Montgomery. Of the two, I think Birmingham's more diversified economy will more likely ensure long-term sustained growth than Huntsville's.

[bluebeard]

Holistically, almost all the economies are based directly or indirectly on government spending. UAB =state and federally funded university. Huntsville = Dept of Defense and NASA. Montgomery=state.

[mimpdaddy]

Your opinion is not based on facts.cpg35322

[bluebeard]

What is your opinion complete with facts?

[cpg35223]

Originally Posted by bluebeard

Holistically, almost all the economies are based directly or indirectly on government spending. UAB =state and federally funded university. Huntsville = Dept of Defense and NASA. Montgomery=state.

Well, I would argue against your characterization of Birmingham, given the importance of banking and manufacturing. Sure, UAB is an important driver of the economy. But to say that it is even the most important part of the local economy would not be supportable. Yet, it's the largest employer in the market. But there are far too many other economic forces at work in the area to maintain that Birmingham is based on government-spending.

[cpg35223]

Originally Posted by mimpdaddy

Your opinion is not based on facts.cpg35322

Mimp, since I have ongoing dealings with economic development people, both in private and public sectors, I think I know what I'm talking about.