Alaska is a chang'in and when? (hotel, home, college)

[Metlakatla]

I am curious how these teachers were able to clear land, pour foundations, and construct buildings. Even if you have the land the cost to develop is staggering, even if you do it yourself you have to front money for equipment on a teachers salary?

Don't know -- never asked them. The ones I'm thinking of were dual income couples, though.

I think they were able to afford it because they didn't do it all at once. They had a house built or bought an existing structure that they could afford on their salaries. They then built a little beach cabin for grandma to stay in when she visited from Seattle. After awhile, they noticed that there was a need for vacation rentals...and so on. There are some little beach cabins near my place that were simply built on pilings, and there was no need to clear the land. I think the guy did the work himself, used free lumber that every Alaskan is entitled to, and just took things one step at a time.

I can think of one place that's a floating hotel where there was no need for foundations or land clearing.

[pittsflyer]

South central real estate should sink like a rock by next summer, if not I am going to make low ball offers anyways as I will be ready to buy .... at a price I am willing to pay. And I know the floor is loosening up just under the surface. Every home I have looked at has been vacant (6 homes now). But they are still asking pre 2015 prices.

Originally Posted by Metlakatla

Have you ever tried to evict a renter from an Alaskan property? It's an amazing experience. Stick with high-priced vacation rentals -- better class of people, usually, and no hassles about getting them out when they decide the rent can wait.

Should be some good deals coming up, but I wouldn't expect to find them on the panhandle, although Juneau may clear out some. Our economy is more tied in with Seattle than it is with the rest of the state.

[pittsflyer]

They must have got the land in the 80's before south east cost a fortune. Like you said I don't suspect there will be a lot of new opportunity in south east with the oil prices. If the lower 48 is suffering and no one comes to Alaska that would be the time to start circling like a vulture in south east. When those duel incomes become single incomes and things get tight and lending gets tight is the time to swoop in.

Originally Posted by Metlakatla

Don't know -- never asked them. The ones I'm thinking of were dual income couples, though.

I think they were able to afford it because they didn't do it all at once. They had a house built or bought an existing structure that they could afford on their salaries. They then built a little beach cabin for grandma to stay in when she visited from Seattle. After awhile, they noticed that there was a need for vacation rentals...and so on. There are some little beach cabins near my place that were simply built on pilings, and there was no need to clear the land. I think the guy did the work himself, used free lumber that every Alaskan is entitled to, and just took things one step at a time.

I can think of one place that's a floating hotel where there was no need for foundations or land clearing.

[GnomadAK]

and they will continue to ask 2015 prices until the foreclosures come in hot and heavy.

It doesn't matter though, your outlook is such that external forces will always get in your way. Greedy landlords, greedy homeowners, taxes, property prices, all of these and so many other factors will forever keep you a slave of your own lack of vision and faith. You will never bust out, even though others have shown you many paths to take.

I have been through 2 of these downturns, at the end of the pipeine building days and the dead days of '86. I bought a house in '88 and sold it in 2013 and still didn't make a killing by any means, and that wasn't my intention. The difference between this stumble and the last ones is that the pipeline is decaying, the oilfield is dwindling and there isn't going to be another 25 years of slow but steady growth in oil revenues. Some folks will have the vision to ride this out that thrive and some will wait for the bottom to feed off the misfortune of others, this time though the road back up is paved with a spirit that the railbelt lacks. And you will always be waiting and something will always prevent you from excelling.

[pittsflyer]

What is so wrong with buying low? Also its better to always be on the side lines than to over pay and see the prices slide 100 grand in the next few years. Why put myself up to my eye balls in debt to enrich someone elses life when I can just wait, especially with the mass lay offs going on. If oil were $100 a barrel with significant world catalysts to keep it that way then I might have to bite the bullet but with todays climate why on earth would I over pay?

Originally Posted by GnomadAK

and they will continue to ask 2015 prices until the foreclosures come in hot and heavy.

It doesn't matter though, your outlook is such that external forces will always get in your way. Greedy landlords, greedy homeowners, taxes, property prices, all of these and so many other factors will forever keep you a slave of your own lack of vision and faith. You will never bust out, even though others have shown you many paths to take.

I have been through 2 of these downturns, at the end of the pipeine building days and the dead days of '86. I bought a house in '88 and sold it in 2013 and still didn't make a killing by any means, and that wasn't my intention. The difference between this stumble and the last ones is that the pipeline is decaying, the oilfield is dwindling and there isn't going to be another 25 years of slow but steady growth in oil revenues. Some folks will have the vision to ride this out that thrive and some will wait for the bottom to feed off the misfortune of others, this time though the road back up is paved with a spirit that the railbelt lacks. And you will always be waiting and something will always prevent you from excelling.

[riceme]

Originally Posted by GnomadAK

and they will continue to ask 2015 prices until the foreclosures come in hot and heavy.

It doesn't matter though, your outlook is such that external forces will always get in your way. Greedy landlords, greedy homeowners, taxes, property prices, all of these and so many other factors will forever keep you a slave of your own lack of vision and faith. You will never bust out, even though others have shown you many paths to take.

I have been through 2 of these downturns, at the end of the pipeine building days and the dead days of '86. I bought a house in '88 and sold it in 2013 and still didn't make a killing by any means, and that wasn't my intention. The difference between this stumble and the last ones is that the pipeline is decaying, the oilfield is dwindling and there isn't going to be another 25 years of slow but steady growth in oil revenues. Some folks will have the vision to ride this out that thrive and some will wait for the bottom to feed off the misfortune of others, this time though the road back up is paved with a spirit that the railbelt lacks. And you will always be waiting and something will always prevent you from excelling.

Best post I've read here in a long time. I have to spread some love around before I give some more to you, though.

[Metlakatla]

Alaska also has some pretty good grant and loan programs for small businesses, but that may be ending as the oil money dwindles.

None of the lodge owners I know still work as teachers or as anything else. Some did that for five or so years when they first got started. Keep in mind I'm not talking about motels or hostels or other establishments that cater to budget travelers. The kind of people who stay at these places aren't really affected much by -48 financial fluctuations -- you've got to have major money to be able to afford these sportsfishing packages. As I said, I don't know the financial details of my friends and neighbors, but judging by their vehicles, toys, vacations, the colleges their kids go to, etc., they're low millionaires. Most of them have been at it long enough that the original loans have been paid off. These aren't flashy people who put on a show by buying stuff they can't afford, so I think my impression of financial stability is pretty accurate.

We used to own this back in the Stone Age. You get three nights for a little under $6K.

Personally, I wouldn't buy a turnkey business in SE for reasons you've mentioned. I'd buy the raw materials and build the business one step at a time.

[Metlakatla]

They must have got the land in the 80's before south east cost a fortune

I'm thinking early 90s. And I'm not sure that SE prices are that high. That little property on the Harris River I linked to is only $125, and the little house would make a good vacation rental in summer and used for teacher housing the rest of the year.

[Metlakatla]

If the lower 48 is suffering and no one comes to Alaska that would be the time to start circling like a vulture in south east.

The places to circle like a vulture in SE would be the communities served by the big cruise lines, because that's the kind of traveler most likely to cut back on vacations when the economy experiences a downturn. You could invest in retail space, maybe.

[raemarti]

Originally Posted by riceme

I think we're going to see crude drop near $20 in the first half of '16... which would be a f'n catastrophe for our state budget.

Sheffield pulled us out of the drink at $9 a barrel in 1986. He never had to consider an income tax or state wide sales tax then? He cut out all the unnecessary 'dreamy' projects around the state and some state jobs were lost. For Alaska's current population size, 25,000 state in employees is ridiculous! In '86, we did go into a recession but it was short-lived and most with good common sense survived. Walker can't even do it at $38 a barrel??<<(price at original post). Even at $20 a barrel, look at the spread. I know it's a different time and a different place but come on. Shouldn't Walker's pet-projects be on the table as well?