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Since the end of WWII, Article 9 of Japan's postwar constitution, combined with the USA promise to defend Japan in case of attack, and bans on exporting military technology since the late 60s and early 70s has effectively prevented any significant investment in the military-industrial complex in Japan. Compared to the USA, or other countries of similar size like Germany and the UK, Japan's expenditures on its military is a tiny 1% of GDP. Still though, it is the 5th largest spender in total dollar terms in the world.
In comes Abe, and ongoing pressures on the US economy to push down military spending and the US basically saying "we'll be pivoting to Asia now, but you gotta put up some of your own money now till we get our economy back." Given the lack of investment the USA is making, and ongoing spats with both China and Korea, Japan may be rethinking its stance on Article 9. Already, Japan this year has passed legislation to make it more easy to deploy overseas, silence the media, and establish a spy complex to plug what the spy world derisively calls "spy heaven" thanks to the lax approach towards counterintelligence from Japan.
Are we seeing the beginnings of a new military-industrial complex in Japan? Will the peacetime expenditures on the military of Japan start to increase? What do you all think?
As they say, there are no such things as permanent friends and enemies. Only permanent interests. Whether we like it or not, the free societies of Asia need a strong Japanese military to counter China's growing agression.
As they say, there are no such things as permanent friends and enemies. Only permanent interests. Whether we like it or not, the free societies of Asia need a strong Japanese military to counter China's growing agression.
I think Japan is the only Asian country that can take on China. It'll be interesting on how the whole situation with the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands develop as time goes on. On the other side, Japan maybe Japan would be more forceful on its claims on the Kuril Islands that it claims, but are administered by Russia
I think Japan is the only Asian country that can take on China. It'll be interesting on how the whole situation with the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands develop as time goes on. On the other side, Japan maybe Japan would be more forceful on its claims on the Kuril Islands that it claims, but are administered by Russia
Militarily? I doubt Japan would last a week against China...
Militarily? I doubt Japan would last a week against China...
You need more than just manpower to win a battle. Japan can't do anything right now because their military is legally restricted from powering itself up. Even in World War II, when Japan was an emerging world power, managed to hold its own against the USA for a while, while pillaging the rest of Asia. So, I wouldn't discount the Japanese just because they have Hello Kitty
You need more than just manpower to win a battle. Japan can't do anything right now because their military is legally restricted from powering itself up. Even in World War II, when Japan was an emerging world power, managed to hold its own against the USA for a while, while pillaging the rest of Asia. So, I wouldn't discount the Japanese just because they have Hello Kitty
Yes but it's no longer 1941. Does Japan even HAVE a military? I'm sure South Korea could invade today if they wanted to...
Japan likely wouldn't raise the issue of the Kurils unless it had gained an upper hand with regards to Korea and China. Russia and China have always been arms-length allies in the past, and actually fought some brief skirmishes in the 60s. So much for socialist brotherhood ...
Anyway, I see the escalation with China happening first. China is starting to get more assertive with what it thinks to be sovereign territory. Taiwan is first. The USA and Taiwan have gradually been shifting as a generation that wants to get closer to China is growing up. There's a growing attitude among Taiwanese that they should shift closer to China, especially as the mainland's economy grows, they want a piece of the pie. China offered 31 policies this last June to help economically integrate the island more. I'd bet China is taking the long view, as it often does (it does have a 3000 year recorded history after all).
On the other side Japan steadfastly believes it has historical documents from China, thanking them for rescuing Chinese fishermen stuck on the islands, saying that the island were in Japan's territory, among other international norms and treaties which clearly show they're Japan's. China likely won't start a shooting war, but likely a trade war or two will occur. The US will want to keep friends close, but not too close in China's case. There's too much money to be made in cross-border trade to have anyone want a war.
So I'm wondering "what's the point" in Japan developing a MIC? I could see, say, Vietnam forming an entente with Cambodia, Thailand, Burma, and maybe the Phillipines and Australia to have joint development of MIC. In Japan's case though, the USA will never abandon the strategic bases we have there and in return we'd have lowered trade barriers and military cooperation with them. So what's the point?
Yes but it's no longer 1941. Does Japan even HAVE a military? I'm sure South Korea could invade today if they wanted to...
And they would lose mightily. Japan's military is well trained and armed. They just don't make many waves for obvious reasons, but they do exist and get much of their equipment both domestically and from the US.
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