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I wanted to ask around if anyone thinks Hong Kong will be renewed in 2047 to remain as a special administrative region permanently or do you think Hong Kong will become fully part of China?
If Hong Kong does become part of China entirely, what do you all think will happen to the city.
By 2047, HK will not even hesitate to become fully Chinese.
The gap between HK and Shanghai for example probably shrank by 70% in the past 30 years. In another 30, the former will look UP to the latter.
30 years will see so many enormous changes in Asia that it's very difficult to imagine what will happen. I don't think that HK is going to jump at the chance to lose whatever autonomy they have, nor will they "look up" to SH - that's pretty ridiculous, actually.
Because of its historical cultural differences, it wouldn't surprise me if it maintained some degree of SAR status or joins Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi as an Autonomous Region.
30 years will see so many enormous changes in Asia that it's very difficult to imagine what will happen. I don't think that HK is going to jump at the chance to lose whatever autonomy they have, nor will they "look up" to SH - that's pretty ridiculous, actually.
Because of its historical cultural differences, it wouldn't surprise me if it maintained some degree of SAR status or joins Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi as an Autonomous Region.
What are the political differences between an Autonomous Regions and Special Administrative Regions in China? I have tried to do some research, but it seems like the Autonomous Regions have more legislative rights. It is still a little bit confusing.
I wonder why Hong Kong and Macau were not given those statuses when turned over back to China then.
This whole one country two system crap was used when china was weak and trying to get Hong Kong back. It was a stupid idea that is just now showing many of its flaws. I am sure it will not be renewed. By then, HK will be surpassed in every way By many other Chinese cities.��
Hong Kong's SAR status is very unlikely to be renewed. There are a lot of people on both sides of the border who can't wait for 2047 to come soon enough.
I wanted to ask around if anyone thinks Hong Kong will be renewed in 2047 to remain as a special administrative region permanently or do you think Hong Kong will become fully part of China?
If Hong Kong does become part of China entirely, what do you all think will happen to the city.
It depends on a Pro and Con basis.
If it benefits the Chinese government that HK remains a SAR, then yes to renewal.
if it benefits the Chinese government that HK be fully absorbed under governing authority, then no to renewal.
It is still about 2 decades away and too early to say.
By 2047, I expect to see Shenzhen's GDP per capita will be higher than Hong Kong. Border will be freely-opened, and people will expect to see both Shenzhen and Hong Kong are identical cities now. Hong Kong's housing prices will drop steadily as more people are moving out.
I don't think HK's housing cost is going to fall; the area I'm at in SZ averages about 120,000Â¥ per square meter ($17,900 USD at current rates; $1,625 USD per square foot, which is only about $100 per square foot behind Manhattan and $500 ahead of SF). Our apartment is about 8500 RMB per month, but an apartment the same size in HK Central (a comparable neighborhood) would be 40k HKD per month
Keep in mind that HK'ers can already live and work in China and plenty do live in SZ and commute across the border for work already. Most mainlanders don't consider moving to HK because of insane housing prices and much higher general living costs. Add to it the differences in lifestyle - a social expectance of order, more solid rule of law, real enforcement of policies and regulations, a mistrust of mainlanders - and it's not as attractive to the average person, who already struggle to make ends meet in tier 1/tier 2 cities. The wealthy and influential mainlanders who benefit the most from life in HK already own property there.
When the border goes down, I think little will change in the housing market. Wealthy HK'ers and mainlanders will have further cemented the city's reputation as a high-cost, high-lifestyle destination and it will still be desirable on a global level. Much of Shenzhen will also be high value and in demand.
The bigger question remains as to whether China maintains HK as a comparatively-open market versus mainland cities. A lot of that still has to do with the geopolitical mechanations of the next 28 years, which no one can really call. Hell, no one would have called what's happening now when this thread started 2 years ago.
Hong Kong is a lost cause. It's sad but it's true. The new Fugitive bill is the final nail in the coffin.
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