What's Causing Atlanta's Job Market to Languish? Government Job Losses. (Dallas: credit, income tax)

[Cameron H]

Originally Posted by BringBackCobain

In my opinion, it will be a few years out before economists can figure out what exactly happened to the growth machine that was 1990s Atlanta. To answer this question, one has to go much farther back than 2008, though. The first symptoms of the disease began after the early 2000s recession, when, unlike other boomtowns, Atlanta never recovered the high-paid jobs it lost. While its job market did grow, it was mostly in low-paying jobs.

The big difference between Atlanta and Houston (where I lived throughout the 90s) is that Atlanta was doing much better than Houston. So what's the story, here? I suspect it's just that energy and health care are booming -- and if Houston has learned anything in its history, it's that it won't necessarily last.

It's pretty clear that the recession has hit Atlanta harder than it hit Houston. I'm just not sure you need to look any further than energy and health care to explain that.

[testa50]

Unemployment rate is only part of the puzzle--look at per capita income growth and the picture is a lot bleaker for Atlanta.


Anyways, this isn't at all what I intended this thread to be about. I'm talking about who is expanding and shrinking payrolls presently.

But if someone manages to figure out why Atlanta's income growth was so crappy in the 2000s, which was a decade of very fast population growth among all demographics (our white population growth rate was nestled in between Houston's and Dallas', for those who were about to bring it up), I'll be more than happy to accept the derail.

[Cameron H]

Per capita income tells the same story, doesn't it? The 90s were great and the Great Recession has sucked. I'm not really challenging, here, just asking. I don't live in Atlanta, so I'm a bit surprised by the perception that things were bad long before the current cratering of the economy.

ETA: Houston's per capita income has definitely taken off, though. Again, boom...

[arjay57]

Originally Posted by _Charles_

Massive hiring of illegal aliens for substandard wages. Its all under the table. And a huge factor in why many small businesses are not doing any hiring.

However, I know some small businesses that depend almost exclusively on immigrant workers -- many of whom, I guessing, are illegals.

[testa50]

Originally Posted by Cameron H

Per capita income tells the same story, doesn't it? The 90s were great and the Great Recession has sucked. I'm not really challenging, here, just asking. I don't live in Atlanta, so I'm a bit surprised by the perception that things were bad long before the current cratering of the economy.

ETA: Houston's per capita income has definitely taken off, though. Again, boom...

When I use words like 'horrific' to describe Atlanta's economic performance from 2000-present, this is the sort of stuff I'm talking about:

http://www.clevelandfed.org/CFFileServlet/_cf_image/_cfimg-5182784344761752606.PNG (broken link)

Real Income Growth across Metropolitan Areas :: Tim Dunne and Kyle Fee :: Economic Trends :: 06.06.08 :: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

[Cameron H]

Originally Posted by testa50

When I use words like 'horrific' to describe Atlanta's economic performance from 2000-present, this is the sort of stuff I'm talking about:

Yeah, that only runs through 2006, the trough in my graph. But you're right, it's horrific. When you look at the full decade, and excepting the Texas boom, Atlanta has company in the Sunbelt.



I'm not sure there's an explanation for this unique to Atlanta. The (N)aughts were a lost decade almost everywhere, even before the Great Recession.

[BringBackCobain]

Originally Posted by testa50

Calm down please. I'm not dismissing Atlanta's poor job performance over the last decade--that's a topic for another thread. I'm only talking about short term trends and jobs performance in the economic recovery--that's why I only mention the past year. The fact that government employment has collapsed in the last couple years hasn't been very well established in local media--this has been far and away the most important driver of our recent labor reports--and I'm simply trying to establish the fact.

I actually agree with you completely that our horrid private sector job performance of the last decade is a mystery, but it's not one I'm attempting to explain by any means.

I'm all for focusing on private-sector job growth. I think that ought to have been clear in my post. But the fact remains: for whatever reason, the jobs we are bleeding right now are government jobs, not private-sector jobs. When people hear the statistics, they need to keep that in mind. I would think you of all people would be encouraged by this.

I actually think that losing 1,700 non-construction private sector jobs in a year is either on par with or better than our performance throughout the 2000s. Which is rather terrifying.

I am glad that we are in agreement. I think the title of the thread threw me off.

In any case, I find that most people think of 2000s Atlanta as some sort of boomtown, and that is so far off from reality. The only thing it boomed in was speculative construction.

[BringBackCobain]

Originally Posted by Cameron H

Yeah, that only runs through 2006, the trough in my graph. But you're right, it's horrific. When you look at the full decade, and excepting the Texas boom, Atlanta has company in the Sunbelt.



I'm not sure there's an explanation for this unique to Atlanta. The (N)aughts were a lost decade almost everywhere, even before the Great Recession.

One thing I noticed: whereas Atlanta was at the top of the pack in 1996, it was second-to-last by 2006.

[BringBackCobain]

Originally Posted by testa50

When I use words like 'horrific' to describe Atlanta's economic performance from 2000-present, this is the sort of stuff I'm talking about:



Real Income Growth across Metropolitan Areas :: Tim Dunne and Kyle Fee :: Economic Trends :: 06.06.08 :: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

That is truly scary.

I will try to dig up an ARC source that shows how Atlanta's job growth in the 2000s was actually comprised mostly of low-paying jobs, such as cashiers. The amount of high-paying, white collar jobs in Atlanta is roughly the same as it was in 2000.

[BringBackCobain]

Originally Posted by Cameron H

The big difference between Atlanta and Houston (where I lived throughout the 90s) is that Atlanta was doing much better than Houston. So what's the story, here? I suspect it's just that energy and health care are booming -- and if Houston has learned anything in its history, it's that it won't necessarily last.

It's pretty clear that the recession has hit Atlanta harder than it hit Houston. I'm just not sure you need to look any further than energy and health care to explain that.

Yes, Houston has an advantage in the form of oil. But what's the reason for Dallas' economic health?