Autonomous cars: Atlanta's transportation future? (activities, friendly, retired)

[tikigod311]

Appreciate the insight Midpack

I think we are going to see the quickest shift to AV type tech in trucking/logistics and then "rideshare" services. Both those industries stand to make tons and tons of money off these changes so obviously that's where the most innovation will happen. Those innovations will be then be passed down to passenger cars but it won't trickle too far behind.

I suspect a timeline of widespread deployment of AV tech in trucking/logistics within the next 5-10 years. Massive job layoffs in this industry in 10-15 years. Hope people in those industries aren't digging their head deeper into the sand and not prepping for the future, but I imagine that is exactly what is going on...

[Midpack]

Originally Posted by tikigod311

Appreciate the insight Midpack

I think we are going to see the quickest shift to AV type tech in trucking/logistics and then "rideshare" services. Both those industries stand to make tons and tons of money off these changes so obviously that's where the most innovation will happen. Those innovations will be then be passed down to passenger cars but it won't trickle too far behind.

I suspect a timeline of widespread deployment of AV tech in trucking/logistics within the next 5-10 years. Massive job layoffs in this industry in 10-15 years. Hope people in those industries aren't digging their head deeper into the sand and not prepping for the future, but I imagine that is exactly what is going on...

+1. Long haul trucking will probably be first, and I've read some are already underway on limited interstate routes between major cities. Manually driven trucks will still be shuttling trailers to and from highway driverless trucks at first. In the same way they shuttle to highways that allow double and triple trailers now, or to and from train yards.

As for cars, people are already experimenting with Teslas and various level 2 cars on open road low traffic interstates now. As for cities, everything I've read suggests we'll see urban areas on prescribed routes, where road conditions/signs/sensors can be more easily maintained, and because they're much lower speed than highways. That will expand out from the cities to suburbs, and rural areas will be last. Driverless cars will follow the same rollout, with rural areas being underserved if served at all.

One of the big remaining challenges is snow, when the roads and condition become unrecognizable to most SDC systems. So cold climate areas may lag moderate climate areas too.

Whether or not roads will have to meet new standards WRT lines, signs, sensors, lights, etc. remains to be seen. Bicycles and pedestrians may be required to wear sensors if they're operating on public roads, but I am NOT saying that's a given by any means. Some SDC technogies rely on clear lane lines, while others don't need lines.

It's going to be interesting, I can't wait...

[arjay57]

Originally Posted by cqholt

Isn't this going to be an issue with AVs in the future? I mean not everyone is going to switch at once.

Is it more of an issue with AV than it is with human driven vehicles? If some yahoo blows through a light and smashes into you, does it matter whether you're driving vs. the computer? If there's any hope of last-split-second avoidance, the computer is to have a better chance than a human.

[arjay57]

Originally Posted by tikigod311

I think we are going to see the quickest shift to AV type tech in trucking/logistics and then "rideshare" services.

I know you put it in quotes, tiki, but I'm thinking about going to war against the term "rideshare." At least until Uber and Lyft agree that I can hop out of the car without paying and go, "Hey, buddy, thanks for the ride!"

[tikigod311]

Originally Posted by arjay57

If there's any hope of last-split-second avoidance, the computer is to have a better chance than a human.

Exactly. I think some have not fully considered how much quicker a computer can react to situations. Never distracted with a multitude of "eyes" via numerous sensors, find me a human that can do better. It's just not possible.

We have nearly 300 auto fatalities in Georgia this year alone. To quote the pres... "SAD." The current situation is a problem and AVs will only make it better.


EDIT- I put that term in quotes thanks to you! Your war on "rideshare" already has one success

[samiwas1]

Originally Posted by tikigod311

I suspect a timeline of widespread deployment of AV tech in trucking/logistics within the next 5-10 years. Massive job layoffs in this industry in 10-15 years. Hope people in those industries aren't digging their head deeper into the sand and not prepping for the future, but I imagine that is exactly what is going on...

I'm not sure how there could be enough other jobs to fulfill THAT many people, and the scores of others people are so giddy to see lost to automation. I don't care how much these people prepare...I think we really need to start thinking about how we are going to change our economy and existence to deal with tens of millions losing their jobs to automation.

Of course, I will be really interested to see how a 53' tractor trailer deals with so many of the things one of them does while fully automated...

[chiatldal]

Originally Posted by arjay57

Is it more of an issue with AV than it is with human driven vehicles? If some yahoo blows through a light and smashes into you, does it matter whether you're driving vs. the computer? If there's any hope of last-split-second avoidance, the computer is to have a better chance than a human.

I just don't trust this yet

Computer can get errors and glitches

I think it adds another degree of responsibility. Today for some taking care of their car is already an issue. But this involves technology above most people heads. Now we got to worry if bob got his computer update so it can self drive properly.

[arjay57]

Originally Posted by chiatldal

I just don't trust this yet

Computer can get errors and glitches

Just to present the other side, consider this:

Human systems are subject to multiple catastrophic failure modes, many of which occur quite frequently. Distracted drivers. Drunk drivers. Drowsy drivers and narcoleptic drivers. Drivers with sudden medical emergencies. Disoriented and lost drivers, drivers who don't understand or obey traffic signals and road signs, eating drivers, untrained and inexperienced drivers, mentally ill drivers, raging and aggressive drivers, criminal drivers, visually impaired drivers, careless drivers, medicated drivers, uncoordinated drivers, makeup applying drivers, slow-witted drivers, drivers having sex, and much more.

In addition, our current vehicles are heavily dependent on technology and complex mechanical systems. That's also true of airplanes, medical devices, industrial controls and countless other things. Yet we rely on them constantly, even though they could wreak havoc if they go awry.

What's different about self-driving technology?

[tikigod311]

Originally Posted by chiatldal

I just don't trust this yet

Computer can get errors and glitches

I think it adds another degree of responsibility. Today for some taking care of their car is already an issue. But this involves technology above most people heads. Now we got to worry if bob got his computer update so it can self drive properly.

I dunno about you, but I see errors and glitches constantly every day on our roads committed by humans. I have to drive in a way to specifically avoid other people's constant errors. Human drivers are really really really really bad, your commute every day and the current death toll of 300 this year alone in Georgia should be proof enough of this

In regards to the concern about end users keeping their car up to date, think of all the people that don't update their cars and run on bald tires or folks who do not properly maintain their brakes. I would imagine updates to AVs would be much more reliable thanks to OTA updates using the cell network or your home wifi.

[Midpack]

Originally Posted by chiatldal

I just don't trust this yet

Computer can get errors and glitches

I think it adds another degree of responsibility. Today for some taking care of their car is already an issue. But this involves technology above most people heads. Now we got to worry if bob got his computer update so it can self drive properly.

Unfortunately human errors and glitches are well known too, it's not as if self driving cars have to be perfect to be an improvement. And after years of improvement, it's getting worse again, presumably with distracted driving on the upswing.

Over the past few years, human error has been attributed as the cause in 90% of all auto accidents. Self-driving cars won't be perfect ("errors and glitches"), but humans are far from perfect, and "computers" won't be susceptible to many human errors, e.g. distracted, intoxicated, tired, impaired vision, poor reaction times (elderly?), etc.

And automating updates does not have to be difficult, it could be automated with no human action required.

• In 2015, 35,092 people died in motor vehicle crashes, up 7.2 percent from 2014, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
• The 7.2 percent increase in 2015 was the highest in almost 50 years. The largest increase previously was an 8.1-percent increase from 1965 to 1966.
• In 2015, 96 people died each day in motor vehicle crashes and 6,700 people were injured [2.45 million per year].
• Motor vehicle crashes were the leading cause of death in 2014 for individuals age 11 and also for ages 16 through 24.
• According to NHTSA, the economic cost of motor vehicle crashes (police-reported and unreported) totaled $277 billion in 2010, amounting to almost $897 for every person living in the United States and for 1.9 percent of the U.S Gross Domestic Product.

Auto Crashes | III