Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Humans are in control and 1,400 people died on Georgia roads ALONE last year. Do you think glitches will account for 1/10 of that? I know it won't. There will be glitches and issues, but it will never be as bad as it is now. The current unsafe state of driving must be taken into account when considering the risks of Automation.
In regards to it being a fad... absolutely not. Money makes things happen and not having to pay drivers is going to save a monumental amount of money for companies.
Big glitches and cyber attacks and huge breaches happen all the time, and sometimes they affect people in the order of hundreds of millions at one time. That's a lot worse than what could happen when humans are in manual control.
What if, as I said, the solution is not to put our trust in computers, but to just make cars more sturdier. If we all drove huge 18-wheeler trucks, do you think the accidents would be as bad? Probably not, since 18-wheeler trucks are sturdier. I'm just using that as an analogy. The solution is to make cars sturdier, not to make them autonomous.
And no, I wouldn't rather be in control, and I especially wouldn't rather trust you in control of your car. Since, once again, computers are safer and better drivers than any of us. Just because of our human limitations. (And that's assuming that we're all decent drivers- which, many of us clearly shouldn't be driving, anyway- particularly older people.)
Would you put your full trust in that computer on a winding mountain road on a dark, foggy, rainy night? I know I wouldn't. I think these autonomous cars will work fine in many situations, but not all of them. I don't plan on ever putting my full trust in an AV. Ever.
Quote:
Over 30,000 people die in car wrecks each year. If we can get that number in half, then even that would be huge- but I'm betting in AV-only-world, we could eventually cut it down to maybe 5% of that number.
Hate to tell you, but I would place my entire life savings on saying that an AV-only world is at best a century away, but most likely never.
And, by the way, 45 years ago, the number was well over 50,000. That was when about 1/3 of the vehicle miles were traveled and when distractions were much less (no cell phones and not nearly as many touchscreen stereo systems). On a per-mile basis, fatalities are a quarter of what they were just 45 years ago, and about 1/10 of what they were 70 years ago. Things are MUCH better now.
Quote:
Which they'd still be able to do. It's just that the steering and acceleration and braking will be automated.
Can you honestly tell me that you can't think of any situation in which the computer-driven car wouldn't be able to figure out what to do, or where to go, or how to do exactly what the rider needs it to do over the entire 3.8 million square miles of the US? That the computer is programmed for literally every scenario that could ever possibly happen, and can safely get out of it?
I think they will be fine for a lot of scenarios, but there will always be times when I want to be in control.
Quote:
Yeah, we could, and should totally transition away from human-driven vehicles on the roads. Someday.
Dream on. You will never see it. You kids might see a glimpse of it. I'm glad I will never have to live in that world.
I see we have some crotchety luddites in this thread! Are those damn kids on your lawn? Do y'all feel this way about other technological advancements, or just one particular one?
Quote:
Originally Posted by samiwas1
You will never see it.
Notice that I didn't say I would. I just said it should happen someday. And I bet it will. It's looking likely.
Would you put your full trust in that computer on a winding mountain road on a dark, foggy, rainy night? I know I wouldn't. I think these autonomous cars will work fine in many situations, but not all of them. I don't plan on ever putting my full trust in an AV. Ever.
Yeah, for me the proper situation would be maybe a bunch of autonomous vehicles transporting raw goods form an open mine. Or tree-cutting vehicles that work autonomously. Or little robots that use AI to sweep the floors of a huge warehouse. Industrial applications where the potential for people getting hurt is minimal and they're just transporting objects and goods and are an enhancement of automations that are currently in place in modern manufacturing centers.
Would you put your full trust in that computer on a winding mountain road on a dark, foggy, rainy night? I know I wouldn't. I think these autonomous cars will work fine in many situations, but not all of them. I don't plan on ever putting my full trust in an AV. Ever.
I would trust the AV more because it probably has better senses than me.
Quote:
Hate to tell you, but I would place my entire life savings on saying that an AV-only world is at best a century away, but most likely never.
And, by the way, 45 years ago, the number was well over 50,000. That was when about 1/3 of the vehicle miles were traveled and when distractions were much less (no cell phones and not nearly as many touchscreen stereo systems). On a per-mile basis, fatalities are a quarter of what they were just 45 years ago, and about 1/10 of what they were 70 years ago. Things are MUCH better now.
You might lose that bet because the technology is advancing. Things are better now because of technology and AV is just another example.
Quote:
Can you honestly tell me that you can't think of any situation in which the computer-driven car wouldn't be able to figure out what to do, or where to go, or how to do exactly what the rider needs it to do over the entire 3.8 million square miles of the US? That the computer is programmed for literally every scenario that could ever possibly happen, and can safely get out of it?
I think they will be fine for a lot of scenarios, but there will always be times when I want to be in control.
Funny, to speed up that process, they are running the AV program in Grand Theft Auto. I guess they can give the program all sorts of crazy scenarios with no risk.
Quote:
Dream on. You will never see it. You kids might see a glimpse of it. I'm glad I will never have to live in that world.
We are closer than you think. Issues may be legal and/or cost. If such cars are just too expensive, that might limit the use to Uber, etc. But even then the price will eventually come down. Autonomous trucks would be good. No tired drivers as an AV truck could operate anytime.
Would you put your full trust in that computer on a winding mountain road on a dark, foggy, rainy night? I know I wouldn't. I think these autonomous cars will work fine in many situations, but not all of them. I don't plan on ever putting my full trust in an AV. Ever.
Hate to tell you, but I would place my entire life savings on saying that an AV-only world is at best a century away, but most likely never.
And, by the way, 45 years ago, the number was well over 50,000. That was when about 1/3 of the vehicle miles were traveled and when distractions were much less (no cell phones and not nearly as many touchscreen stereo systems). On a per-mile basis, fatalities are a quarter of what they were just 45 years ago, and about 1/10 of what they were 70 years ago. Things are MUCH better now.
Can you honestly tell me that you can't think of any situation in which the computer-driven car wouldn't be able to figure out what to do, or where to go, or how to do exactly what the rider needs it to do over the entire 3.8 million square miles of the US? That the computer is programmed for literally every scenario that could ever possibly happen, and can safely get out of it?
I think they will be fine for a lot of scenarios, but there will always be times when I want to be in control.
Good points. I am a fan of AV's and think they will outperform humans in many situations. I can easily see them navigating around urban areas in the 20-25 mph range. If traffic can move steadily at that pace, that is quite satisfactory for city streets.
But heading down a winding mountain road on a dark, foggy, rainy night with a computer in charge and me just sitting there? It'll take a lot of confidence building before I'm ready for that. In some of those rural areas you can't GPS or even a cell phone signal.
Would you put your full trust in that computer on a winding mountain road on a dark, foggy, rainy night? I know I wouldn't. I think these autonomous cars will work fine in many situations, but not all of them. I don't plan on ever putting my full trust in an AV. Ever.
AV would perform better in not ideal weather conditions than on urban streets, where cars, peds, etc. are all mixing together.
I get the feeling there are a lot of people here that have not really thought through how a computer will drive a car. Cause there's no way a human could be better at it
AV only, maybe not in our lifetime. But overwhelming majority AV...certainly happening in my lifetime. Driving a car yourself will be considered as arcane as the corded phone in the next 20-30 years
In the "winding mountain road on a dark, foggy, rainy night" scenario, I'd definitely trust the automated car over a human operated car.
The AV has sensors and equipment that far exceed a human's ability to see in those conditions (infrared, radar, laser, the ability to follow sensors/beacons that would be embedded into the mountain road, data from cars up ahead, etc). A human can't see past their own mostly-useless headlights in this scenario.
The computer also won't care about kids screaming in the back seat while navigating said mountain road and other various distractions that may come.
I see we have some crotchety luddites in this thread! Are those damn kids on your lawn? Do y'all feel this way about other technological advancements, or just one particular one?
No...note that I support the idea of AVs, just not the "you will never drive again in your life and the computer can do everything". I just do not believe it. My damn iPhone can't even go a few hours without freezing up. I would not mind an AV for a lot of drives. I just have literally zero desire to give up all driving to the computer, with no ability for me to make my own decisions or drive myself. Is that really something you want?
That's not luddite, that's a preference. That's taking away something we enjoy doing and want to do. It's essentially like telling people who enjoy going on beach vacations that you've now created a video screen that looks like a real beach, and that the technology is so great, you'll feel like you're there.
A scenario: my wife and I love to spend weekends driving around, finding new construction neighborhoods, and walking through whatever open houses we can find. How do you randomly drive around with a computer in control? If I see a sign for a new development, do I now have to sit and enter addresses (which may not exist) to get there? How do we navigate their new streets which are not in the GPS yet? How do I tell it which houses we want to go to? And all that assumes that we have our own AV. Otherwise, we have to constantly hail a public one.
When I'm on the family farm, how do I get around? Does the AV know every dirt road and path? Does it know by some sort of voodoo when I want to just get to the next location, and when I want to slow down and check things out?
AVs will be great for corporate drones who get up, go to work, eat, sleep.
Quote:
Notice that I didn't say I would. I just said it should happen someday. And I bet it will. It's looking likely.
So, then the fun of driving will be completely gone forever. You are going to have a tough time convincing rural folks to give that up, especially on their unmarked dirt roads. And even a lot of city folks, too. Totally-independent AVs are the spankfest of zurbanists, not average people.
Quote:
Originally Posted by krogerDisco
I would trust the AV more because it probably has better senses than me.
Yeah, on a twisty road in the fog and rain...what could possibly go wrong with those sensors? Thanks, but no thanks. I do not very foresee myself trusting a computer to navigate badly-marked roads in bad weather.
Quote:
You might lose that bet because the technology is advancing. Things are better now because of technology and AV is just another example.
So, you think that in 100 years, there won't be a single human-driven car left in the country? Yeah, I'll take that bet.
Quote:
Funny, to speed up that process, they are running the AV program in Grand Theft Auto. I guess they can give the program all sorts of crazy scenarios with no risk.
Oh really?!?! Oh that makes me feel better! Seriously? Grand Theft Auto is your benchmark for vehicle performance?
Quote:
We are closer than you think. Issues may be legal and/or cost. If such cars are just too expensive, that might limit the use to Uber, etc. But even then the price will eventually come down. Autonomous trucks would be good. No tired drivers as an AV truck could operate anytime.
So, how long until you think there are no more human-driven vehicles in the country?
I know that I will not give up total control until I am forced to by law. I grew up on computers. I do not trust them in all situations.
Quote:
Originally Posted by arjay57
Good points. I am a fan of AV's and think they will outperform humans in many situations. I can easily see them navigating around urban areas in the 20-25 mph range. If traffic can move steadily at that pace, that is quite satisfactory for city streets.
Ugh...might as well crawl...25mph on a big road makes me want to dig my eyeballs out of their sockets.
Quote:
But heading down a winding mountain road on a dark, foggy, rainy night with a computer in charge and me just sitting there? It'll take a lot of confidence building before I'm ready for that. In some of those rural areas you can't GPS or even a cell phone signal.
Yeah...I've driven on some roads up the the TN and NC mountains where I would never, ever trust a computer to navigate them with absolutely no possibility of me taking over. Nope. Nope. Nope.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cqholt
AV would perform better in not ideal weather conditions than on urban streets, where cars, peds, etc. are all mixing together.
So, the sensors are not affected by rain or fog? If the roads are not well-marked, are they still able to properly navigate? Can they navigate roads which are not in their database?
Quote:
Originally Posted by tikigod311
I get the feeling there are a lot of people here that have not really thought through how a computer will drive a car. Cause there's no way a human could be better at it
In every single situation? Yeah, that's just not true.
Quote:
AV only, maybe not in our lifetime. But overwhelming majority AV...certainly happening in my lifetime. Driving a car yourself will be considered as arcane as the corded phone in the next 20-30 years
I find this statement laughable. It appears you assume that everyone wants to give up driving. There was no benefit to a corded phone over cordless. There are many benefits of driving yourself.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mossberg
I put my money on the AV every time.
Good. You do that. Don't force me to.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
