Ideas on what property prices in O4W will eventually top out at? (Atlanta: real estate market, townhomes)

[Bonferroni99]

My question is not related to new construction, large, luxury homes but starter homes. I have friends that want to buy in the area and have quickly been priced out; I live in O4W and am wondering what my property taxes could eventually rise to. So for a small (say ~1500 sq ft) 3BR/2BA, older home, that is nice enough but has no wow factor AND is <1 block from the Beltline....what do you think that could sell for in 10-15 years?
I've looked at Morningside as a comp because I feel that is the closest intown neighborhood that has been very expensive for a very long time. Houses are very different between the neighborhoods (Morningside homes are on average much larger, nicer and brick siding) but I did find some small, older homes in Morningside that are ok but not recently updated and they seem to go for around 600-650K. We are zoned for the same middle and high school but they have a great elementary school and ours is awful. But we have the Beltline and in a couple of years the middle school will be in our neighborhood. What do you think?

[ATLTJL]

It's impossible to know and anybody who says otherwise is lying.

Your neighborhood could really go a few ways. The most likely are:

1) It will continue to rise in value.
2) As the Beltline expands and other areas along it gentrify, it will bring similar real estate online and erode your value.

But all kinds of things could happen. The real estate bubble could burst. Atlanta could lose its appeal as a hot city. People who want single family homes may move to the suburbs. I mean, it's really anybody's game....there could be another major terrorist attack and then all bets are off.

And you'll never know what your property taxes will be because the county can always play with the millage rates.

[chabang]

If you're that close to the Eastside Beltline, I think it could reach that value easily. The reason is that there is just no more inventory in the O4W. Every square inch has already been developed. The people interested in living in O4W vs Morningside are probably very different. The people I see buying the 700K townhomes in O4W are boomers or empty nesters with double incomes who love the walkability. Morningside is probably more likely to attract families.

[jeoff]

While there is no controlling for the local and national economy, I think there are a lot of reasons to expect for O4W to outpace most other intown neighborhoods in the long term--in addition to being one of the most in-town of the in-town neighborhoods, it still hasn't topped out as far as gentrification goes, but it will eventually, and most of the areas that surround it will probably continue to improve/further gentrify as well.

[brown_dog_us]

I like to look at it on different levels.

1. Nationally- We are over do for a recession in the real estate market. Might be a plateau or a slight drop, or it could be a major decline. The jobs market will have to worsen significantly for it to be a major decline.

2. Metro Atlanta- Times are good and I don't see that changing. I do think supply will always keep up with demand.

3. City of Atlanta- There are plenty of new places along the beltline plus I wonder if they can keep the millenials from bolting to the burbs when they have kids.

4. O4W- Great area with terrible elementary school. It's not going to attract young families with kids like Morningside. The empty nesters mentioned above are an interesting wrinkle.

To me this all adds up to a big picture slowing, and a ceiling to the prices locally. That says modest growth.

[samiwas1]

Originally Posted by chabang

If you're that close to the Eastside Beltline, I think it could reach that value easily. The reason is that there is just no more inventory in the O4W. Every square inch has already been developed.

Isn't the Civic Center considered to be in Old Fourth Ward? That is a massive piece of property (over 20 acres) ripe for huge development. The Civic Center is terribly under-used. It either needs to be repurposed (film/tv studio and concert venue) or removed for mixed use.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by jeoff

While there is no controlling for the local and national economy, I think there are a lot of reasons to expect for O4W to outpace most other intown neighborhoods in the long term--in addition to being one of the most in-town of the in-town neighborhoods, it still hasn't topped out as far as gentrification goes, but it will eventually, and most of the areas that surround it will probably continue to improve/further gentrify as well.

The neighborhoods surrounding O4W were gentrified decades ago.

[chabang]

There are always people in the O4W that try to shame people that send their kids to charter schools or private schools instead of investing in Hope Elementary. It makes me laugh. That school is a disaster that will NEVER improve. Well maybe in 40-50 years or so. I think what will eventually happen in O4W is we will get a big enough group of young families that are highly educated professionals that will finally hit the tipping point and a great charter school will be created for O4W....just like Grant Park and East Lake communities. We aren't quite there yet but it will happen. Hope Elementary will continue to deteriorate. No one that is coming into O4W now with kids will ever send their kids there.

[arjay57]

It depends a lot on the schools. If the public elementary schools keep getting stronger there's no reason the houses won't go up to the $700K+ range.

[Bonferroni99]

I agree the schools will be the deciding factor although it doesn't seem to have as much impact in other neighborhoods. Cabbagetown has a moderately better elementary, horrible middle school, and mostly crappy high school but houses there fly off the market. O4W has better schools overall compared to Cabbagetown but houses in Cabbagetown seem to sell faster no matter the price. It will be interesting to see what houses there eventually rise to. This Cabbagetown 3BR which is VERY small with mostly very nice renovations (but ugly kitchen that needs to be torn out) listed at 450K and was under contract in days.
https://www.redfin.com/GA/Atlanta/17.../home/24565989