New HS in South Austin (Andrews, Crockett: renters, buying a house, buying)

[Aquitaine]

And I'm not advocating 'nothing'. I'm advocating boundary changes and increased busing during the short-term interim until the population starts declining.

From a purely city planning perspective of "where do the bodies go" that makes a lot of sense, but you have to get Akins and Crockett up to Bowie's level before anybody who lives in SW Austin will sign on. You can't just say "having families with more resources in those schools will make them better" - that line has long since been proven to be a myth.

Like a lot of things in politics, it comes down to how you approach making a bad or mediocre school a good one. AISD will never do what it takes to achieve this.

[robertsacamano]

Why is school enrollment falling so rapidly? Is it because middle and upper class couples/singles are moving in without children nor an intent to bear them? I would also suspect that the population of Austin (those who lived here pre-2000) had children who've now grown up and moved on. The latter happened in places like Long Island, NY which exploded post-1945. During the boom, schools were built on every corner. By the 90s, they were being shuttered left and right as the populated greyed.

Given the high cost of housing (owning/renting) in Austin, I am curious as to what will happen with schools all over Austin.

[Raskolnikov]

Originally Posted by robertsacamano

Why is school enrollment falling so rapidly? Is it because middle and upper class couples/singles are moving in without children nor an intent to bear them? I would also suspect that the population of Austin (those who lived here pre-2000) had children who've now grown up and moved on. The latter happened in places like Long Island, NY which exploded post-1945. During the boom, schools were built on every corner. By the 90s, they were being shuttered left and right as the populated greyed.

Given the high cost of housing (owning/renting) in Austin, I am curious as to what will happen with schools all over Austin.

This seems far-fetched. Austin is not Long Island, NY. Austin is a medium sized city in Texas, with suburbia and all that entails. In fact, nothing in Texas relates to the East Coast remotely. We have tons of space and room to grow.

Also- I think its' crazy to suggest that school enrollment is falling rapidly in Austin. If that's the case, then one reason has to be enrollment in private schools or movement into home schooling because parents today are sick of the AISD soap opera, and they don't have to be part of it.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Raskolnikov

This seems far-fetched. Austin is not Long Island, NY. Austin is a medium sized city in Texas, with suburbia and all that entails. In fact, nothing in Texas relates to the East Coast remotely. We have tons of space and room to grow.

But we're not talking about "Austin" (the city or the metro). We're talking about _AISD_. Who's boundaries are set and aren't growing. Where most of the land in those boundaries is already developed, or preserved from development.

Originally Posted by Raskolnikov

Also- I think its' crazy to suggest that school enrollment is falling rapidly in Austin.

It's already falling, straight from the horses mouth in AISD. Starting with Elementary, but that will eventually bubble up to high schools.

[centralaustinite]

Yes, AISD enrollment is falling, mainly because the high cost of housing is forcing young families out and this is happening across income levels. If you look at the last AISD report on this (sorry no link but it is out there), they are losing a surprising number of students to Del Valle because that is one of the last areas close to Austin where a working class family can afford to live.

The district still picks ups high school kids as their magnet and academy programs (the music program at McCallum for example just got the highest level of recognition -- the sole National Signature School for Music Education out of 20,000 school programs examined by the Grammy Foundation -- that draws homeschooled and privately educated kids back into AISD. But overall, housing costs are forcing families out of AISD.

Locate a LASA-like program at Crockett, that seems to be at least part of the solution. I think Travis HS will soon be impacted by housing costs and there may be some capacity created there.

[Raskolnikov]

I agree with Centralaustinite in the respect that working class families cannot afford to live in Austin any longer. But I think its a double whammy, with higher-income families with children sending their kids to private school in droves.

I know two families who have recently applied to St. Andrews and Regents because they are sick of AISD's (And Dripping Springs ISD) focus on using iPads and devices with screens, and movement away from text books.. And Common Core, bizarre math changes in curriculum, etc. People I know are fed up with public schools and they have other options.

So I think AISD is getting hit with the exodus from both middle / working class families who cannot afford to stay in Austin, as well as wealthier people who are moving their kids into private.

[scm53]

What generates the opposition to this, I am hard pressed to understand. Oh, I get the reasons -- equal combinations of keep-the-amenity-load-low-SW-because-I-don't-approve-of-anyone-living-there, to I-don't-have-kids-in-school-so-why-should-I-pay? to knee jerk reactions in opposition to any tax (which may be rooted in an increasing tax weariness in Austin in general).

The fire that the opponents are playing with (and maybe they don't think it has a downside at all) is that AISD is in competition. In competition for students, especially those with parents that have choices about either where they live, or if their kids go to private schools. Keep Bowie overcrowded, keep busing kids across town, and those choices will be made away from AISD. And those are the kids that are cheapest to educate. They are in the biggest, most efficient to run schools. They require less remedial or bilingual education and repeat fewer classes. And when their parents make choices away from AISD, they reduce the average daily attendance number, increasing the Robin Hood recapture, but at the district's per capita -- which is inevitably higher than the cost to educate these kiddos. Meaning AISD loses more money than the cost it saves when they leave.

San Francisco, here we come. Full of singles, DINKS, retiree boomers, and the disadvantaged. Hurray!

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by scm53

Keep Bowie overcrowded, keep busing kids across town, and those choices will be made away from AISD.

Who in this thread is saying "Keep Bowie overcrowded"?

Who is saying "bus kids across town" (e.g. from Bowie to Eastside or from Bowie to Anderson)? Bus a few more from Bowie to Crockett and Austin.

Originally Posted by scm53

And when their parents make choices away from AISD, they reduce the average daily attendance number, increasing the Robin Hood recapture, but at the district's per capita -- which is inevitably higher than the cost to educate these kiddos. Meaning AISD loses more money than the cost it saves when they leave.

All of which assumes the current Robin Hood system. So again, at this point it's premature to make huge capital expenditures when the lawsuit (which could completely change or overturn Robin Hood) is still outstanding.

[Aquitaine]

All of which assumes the current Robin Hood system. So again, at this point it's premature to make huge capital expenditures when the lawsuit (which could completely change or overturn Robin Hood) is still outstanding.

I agree that this is a sufficiently large game-changer that is up in the air that nobody should do anything until it is resolved.

Bus a few more from Bowie to Crockett and Austin.

If you bought a house in Circle C and your kid had been going to Bowie, and you got a letter from AISD saying that your kid is now going to Crockett, can you honestly say you would just accept it?

Again, I don't even have kids, but I know more than most about Crockett. I'd sooner leave Austin entirely than send anyone in family there.

[scm53]

Originally Posted by Aquitaine

If you bought a house in Circle C and your kid had been going to Bowie, and you got a letter from AISD saying that your kid is now going to Crockett, can you honestly say you would just accept it?

Plus, it won't fix the problem. In five years, Bowie will be 930 over capacity, while Crockett will be 550 under. What do you do with the extra 400? Can't put them at Austin High -- it will be 220 over. Can't put them at Akins -- it will be 525 over.

There have been legal battles over Texas school financing since 1968. Kicking the can down the road for that reason is just a rationalization to not do what you already don't already want to do.