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I honestly don't think we'll ever get there. Not that the technology won't be there, because it's almost there now. The issue is demand.
At any given time we have four generations of drivers on the road. Most of those on the road today won't accept fully autonomous cars, many because they don't trust the technology, but most because they simply like to drive and won't want to give it up. So we'll probably have to cycle through two generations to reach a point where we'd have a majority of drivers who would accept a fully autonomous car.
I just think that by the time that happens - and we're talking 50 years down the road - something else will come along that seems like an even better idea to most folks and will be even more efficient. By that time I could see personal vehicles banned from our largest cities, replaced by a more user-friendly mass transit system, and expanded commuter bus or rail systems running between towns. Given that the highest anticipated demand for autonomous cars would seem to be from city drivers tired of fighting traffic and those who commute to another town for work, it seems like advances such as this would put a huge dent in demand for autonomous cars.
No, people in small towns will not be using mass transit to get in to the city to the degree that many futurists envision. It might be a supplemental method but most in towns will want to get to the city in their own time and in their own vehicles.
sure are going to be a lot of pissed off drivers once we all going driverless and are riding at the speed limit.
The fun will be separation distances will be much less, cars will pull out right in front of each other, and the speed limit will be much higher. Your mother will hate it.
<>I think you vastly underestimate the impacts of this. I can see subscription services for vehicles that can be called on demand to your location in under 10 minutes, (or scheduled), that cost less then owning and running your own vehicle would.
That will free up vast areas of the city for residential and business areas in all the parking lot space we won't need. Many fewer vehicles, plus they can park themselves inches apart since no one needs to get out.
Yeah, I was thinking it would be like a Google maps thing.
The old children's show, Captain Kangaroo, featured a microwave oven one segment; I'm thinking it took about 10 years for them to be generally available. Similarly, I took a programming class at a community college around 20 years ago and the teacher was talking about a technology that predated cell phones, and now everyone has one. In both instances the things mentioned seemed magical and unlikely though now they're commonplace.
Thanks for bring up microwaves and cell phones.
Microwave ovens were first sold in 1946. It took 40 years for them to become mainstream. Over 70 years later 10% of Americans still don't own them. Using that same timeline, driverless cars could become mainstream in 2060, and in 2090 could account for 90% of the cars on the road. Personally I think they will be delayed at least 10 years. There are just too many technological and regulatory issues to overcome. So I would say the first driverless car will be sold in 2030. 50% of cars will be driverless by 2070, 90% will be driverless by 2100.
Mobile phone development, was slightly faster. The first handheld mobile phone was sold in 1973. 30 years later they became mainstream. 45 years later 92% of Americans have them. So using that timeline, driverless cars could become mainstream in 2050, and in 2065 could account for 92% of the cars on the road. But the microwave oven timeline is a better analogy, I think. Cell phones are much smaller, simpler technology, and don't have the safety issues that microwave ovens and driverless cars do. So I would stick to my above prediction. 2030 first, 2070 50%, 2100 90%.
Last edited by Cloudy Dayz; 01-15-2018 at 07:10 PM..
I’m trying to remember when the automated parallel parking was introduced, seems like it was at least 15 years ago (Lexus?). To this day I have never seen anyone use it.
I’m trying to remember when the automated parallel parking was introduced, seems like it was at least 15 years ago (Lexus?). To this day I have never seen anyone use it.
Toyota Prius 2003. Lexus was 2006. Yeah, it's pretty worthless. I'm not a great parallel parker, but I wouldn't pay for it. Generally you have to be able to parallel park to get a driver's license, so what's the point of it?
Microwave ovens were first sold in 1946. It took 40 years for them to become mainstream. Over 70 years later 10% of Americans still don't own them. Using that same timeline, driverless cars could become mainstream in 2060, and in 2090 could account for 90% of the cars on the road. Personally I think they will be delayed at least 10 years. There are just too many technological and regulatory issues to overcome. So I would say the first driverless car will be sold in 2030. 50% of cars will be driverless by 2070, 90% will be driverless by 2100.
The first driverless cars sold are on the road already in various areas. Waymo, the autonomous vehicle division of Alphabet, Google’s parent company, reached an important milestone recently: since mid-October, the company has been operating its autonomous minivans on public roads in Arizona without a safety driver — or any human at all — behind the wheel. They've been used as taxis in Arizona already, and will soon be used by Avis and Lyft across the country. So I"m going to say your 2030 prediction is going to be a bit off.
No, people in small towns will not be using mass transit to get in to the city to the degree that many futurists envision. It might be a supplemental method but most in towns will want to get to the city in their own time and in their own vehicles.
I'm not sure what the "No" is all about because I didn't even mention small towns. But you are right, small town folks likely won't be using mass transit, partly because they won't be directly served unless they happen to lay along a route between cities, and partly because those folks will, for the most part, continue to want to drive themselves where they want to go. And most of them will continue to want to do it with their hands on the wheel and feet on the gas.
Having lived in small towns all my life, I'm abundantly certain that these folks will be the last holdouts to accept autonomous vehicles. Part of this because of their stubborn independence, and partly because rural and small town folks use vehicles in ways that city dwellers can't even begin to fathom, uses that can't efficiently be served by autonomous vehicles. And if and when we reach the point that most city dwellers are essentially out of the market for new cars these folks are going to represent a much larger piece of the car-buying pie so the industry will be much more inclined to cater to their desires.
The idea is nifty and the technology is almost there, but I just think outside factors are going to kill demand before a full rollout can take effect.
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