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The only hub that might be in slight danger in PHX, but LAX is pretty maxed out capacity wise and they would need some type of regional west coast hub. CLT will likely see a decrease in Caribbean traffic and probably a slight decrease in Europe traffic but besides for that CLT is save. MIA, DFW, ORD, LAX will all remain hubs as well with JFK focusing on O/D traffic mainly. With JFK also being slot controlled I don't see PHL going anywhere, maybe a slight drawback in European flights and Carribean flights but that's it, it would be AA's primary NE gateway, and PHL is a large enough city to sustain a hub from almost local demand alone. Lets also not forget about DCA. Great market share there as well.
The only hub that might be in slight danger in PHX, but LAX is pretty maxed out capacity wise and they would need some type of regional west coast hub
LAX grew like crazy last year, completely surpassing ORD as #2 airport in the USA. At this rate it could reach the magic 75 MAP by even this year. In 2014 LAX grew by 6% and if it grows 6% this year, it will reach 75MAP
Quote:
Originally Posted by LAX MASTER PLAN STIPULATED SETTLEMENT
Los Angeles Mayor Antonio R. Villaraigosa and the Los Angeles City Council gave final approval in early 2006 to an historic settlement of lawsuits filed against the Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) Master Plan. The settlement was also approved by the city councils of Culver City, El Segundo and Inglewood; the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors; the board of the Alliance for a Regional Solution to Airport Congestion (ARSAC); and the Los Angeles Board of Airport Commissioners.
As a result of the settlement agreement, the plaintiffs in the lawsuits against the LAX Master Plan will drop their state and federal lawsuits. The settlement removes potential litigation obstacles and allows Los Angeles World Airports (LAWA) to begin construction on the LAX South Airfield Improvement Project and to develop new plans for LAX consistent with the Mayor’s vision for the regional redistribution of aviation demand.
Among key provisions of the settlement, LAWA will:
Discontinue passenger operations at ten narrow-body gates at the rate of two gates per year starting in 2010. This requirement will be in effect until 2020 unless LAX is serving less than 75 million annual passengers or if, through amendments to the Master Plan, LAX has 153 gates or less.
The closing of gates at LAX to try and control traffic is unprecedented in aviation history for a major airport the size of LAX to try and downsize. With more and more A380's flying into LAX, they will have to try and figure out how to move some of the "local traffic" to San Francisco/Sacramento and Las Vegas to Ontario.
Aviation growth has been robust across all airlines. Traditional airports like EWR, PHL, JFK, ORD as well as close in airports like LGA, DCA, MDW, SAN, and SFO are going to have severe capacity problems. I don't think it will be a priority of AA to close hubs for the next few years.
The only hub that might be in slight danger in PHX, but LAX is pretty maxed out capacity wise and they would need some type of regional west coast hub. CLT will likely see a decrease in Caribbean traffic and probably a slight decrease in Europe traffic but besides for that CLT is save. MIA, DFW, ORD, LAX will all remain hubs as well with JFK focusing on O/D traffic mainly. With JFK also being slot controlled I don't see PHL going anywhere, maybe a slight drawback in European flights and Carribean flights but that's it, it would be AA's primary NE gateway, and PHL is a large enough city to sustain a hub from almost local demand alone. Lets also not forget about DCA. Great market share there as well.
NYC domestic O/D is done through LGA for the most part. JFK is for transcon and international ops. PHX is needed as a mountain region hub as to CLT is to the SE.
PHX is needed as a mountain region hub as to CLT is to the SE.
It seems like PHX is such a healthy airport. USAirways has dominant share at 38.81%, overall passengers increased by over 4%, and every single one of the top 10 destinations increased passengers. I can't see them simply turning it over completely to Southwest.
Summary Data (U.S. Flights Only) Carrier Shares for January - December 2014
Passengers* 2013** 2014** %Chg Rank***
Arrival 18,411k 19,220k 4.39% 7
Departure 18,410k 19,222k 4.41% 7
US Airways 14,918 38.81%
Southwest 12,543 32.63%
Delta 2,182 5.68%
SkyWest 2,061 5.36%
Mesa 1,873 4.87%
Other 4,866 12.66%
Based on enplaned passengers(000) both arriving and departing.
Time Period: January - December 2013; Airport: Denver, CO: DEN; Data: 1,008.00
Time Period: January - December 2014; Airport: Denver, CO: DEN; Data: 1,100.45
Time Period: January - December 2013; Airport: Los Angeles, CA: LAX; Data: 800.47
Time Period: January - December 2014; Airport: Los Angeles, CA: LAX; Data: 802.28
Time Period: January - December 2013; Airport: Seattle, WA: SEA; Data: 651.38
Time Period: January - December 2014; Airport: Seattle, WA: SEA; Data: 665.22
Time Period: January - December 2013; Airport: Las Vegas, NV: LAS; Data: 653.40
Time Period: January - December 2014; Airport: Las Vegas, NV: LAS; Data: 665.15
Time Period: January - December 2013; Airport: Chicago, IL: ORD; Data: 607.24
Time Period: January - December 2014; Airport: Chicago, IL: ORD; Data: 662.90
Time Period: January - December 2013; Airport: Dallas/Fort Worth, TX: DFW; Data: 598.85
Time Period: January - December 2014; Airport: Dallas/Fort Worth, TX: DFW; Data: 655.79
Time Period: January - December 2013; Airport: Minneapolis, MN: MSP; Data: 614.75
Time Period: January - December 2014; Airport: Minneapolis, MN: MSP; Data: 655.68
Time Period: January - December 2013; Airport: San Diego, CA: SAN; Data: 634.72
Time Period: January - December 2014; Airport: San Diego, CA: SAN; Data: 630.96
Time Period: January - December 2013; Airport: Salt Lake City, UT: SLC; Data: 589.94
Time Period: January - December 2014; Airport: Salt Lake City, UT: SLC; Data: 624.30
Time Period: January - December 2013; Airport: Atlanta, GA: ATL; Data: 575.58
Time Period: January - December 2014; Airport: Atlanta, GA: ATL; Data: 575.71
It seems like PHX is such a healthy airport. USAirways has dominant share at 38.81%, overall passengers increased by over 4%, and every single one of the top 10 destinations increased passengers. I can't see them simply turning it over completely to Southwest.
Summary Data (U.S. Flights Only) Carrier Shares for January - December 2014
Passengers* 2013** 2014** %Chg Rank***
Arrival 18,411k 19,220k 4.39% 7
Departure 18,410k 19,222k 4.41% 7
US Airways 14,918 38.81%
Southwest 12,543 32.63%
Delta 2,182 5.68%
SkyWest 2,061 5.36%
Mesa 1,873 4.87%
Other 4,866 12.66%
Based on enplaned passengers(000) both arriving and departing.
Time Period: January - December 2013; Airport: Denver, CO: DEN; Data: 1,008.00
Time Period: January - December 2014; Airport: Denver, CO: DEN; Data: 1,100.45
Time Period: January - December 2013; Airport: Los Angeles, CA: LAX; Data: 800.47
Time Period: January - December 2014; Airport: Los Angeles, CA: LAX; Data: 802.28
Time Period: January - December 2013; Airport: Seattle, WA: SEA; Data: 651.38
Time Period: January - December 2014; Airport: Seattle, WA: SEA; Data: 665.22
Time Period: January - December 2013; Airport: Las Vegas, NV: LAS; Data: 653.40
Time Period: January - December 2014; Airport: Las Vegas, NV: LAS; Data: 665.15
Time Period: January - December 2013; Airport: Chicago, IL: ORD; Data: 607.24
Time Period: January - December 2014; Airport: Chicago, IL: ORD; Data: 662.90
Time Period: January - December 2013; Airport: Dallas/Fort Worth, TX: DFW; Data: 598.85
Time Period: January - December 2014; Airport: Dallas/Fort Worth, TX: DFW; Data: 655.79
Time Period: January - December 2013; Airport: Minneapolis, MN: MSP; Data: 614.75
Time Period: January - December 2014; Airport: Minneapolis, MN: MSP; Data: 655.68
Time Period: January - December 2013; Airport: San Diego, CA: SAN; Data: 634.72
Time Period: January - December 2014; Airport: San Diego, CA: SAN; Data: 630.96
Time Period: January - December 2013; Airport: Salt Lake City, UT: SLC; Data: 589.94
Time Period: January - December 2014; Airport: Salt Lake City, UT: SLC; Data: 624.30
Time Period: January - December 2013; Airport: Atlanta, GA: ATL; Data: 575.58
Time Period: January - December 2014; Airport: Atlanta, GA: ATL; Data: 575.71
I think US (AA) has even more of stranglehold at PHL. Also the OD numbers here support maintaining a hub especially for Int'l JFK spillover and believe the European market is pretty strong Not sure how well Qatar is doing now here as a Oneworld connection
There was a time when having a hub near the center of population of the USA meant that you could reach the most number of people with short trips. But all of those hubs are now diminished (Pittsburgh, St Louis, Cleveland, Cincinatti, etc).
Although people speculate about duplication of effort with hubs (Washington Dulles is to close to Newark NJ, and Atlanta is too close to Charlotte), I think the industry is too limited by runways, and cannot afford to downsize any hubs. With LAX, ORD, JFK and MIA having severe capacity constraints, the international traffic must go somewhere.
Qatar Airways will never run into trouble. The governments can keep the airports pristine and new, so the airlines in the Middle East will never have to deal with aging ground infrastructure (like the USA). They can afford brand new fleets.
There was a time when having a hub near the center of population of the USA meant that you could reach the most number of people with short trips. But all of those hubs are now diminished (Pittsburgh, St Louis, Cleveland, Cincinatti, etc).
Although people speculate about duplication of effort with hubs (Washington Dulles is to close to Newark NJ, and Atlanta is too close to Charlotte), I think the industry is too limited by runways, and cannot afford to downsize any hubs. With LAX, ORD, JFK and MIA having severe capacity constraints, the international traffic must go somewhere.
Qatar Airways will never run into trouble. The governments can keep the airports pristine and new, so the airlines in the Middle East will never have to deal with aging ground infrastructure (like the USA). They can afford brand new fleets.
So do you think PHL will stay as a Int'l connecting hub with overflow form the O/D driven JFK?
I think PHL will stay a International Gateway city for the "long" thin routes. The "Secondary" cities in the EU, US/AA can route those connecting passengers to Philly to connect. BOS will also get some of the Long Thin routes also. (PHL/BOS will get "limited" flights to Main EU Cities 1 flight per day for O/D traffic)
The mainline Trunk flights to major international HUBs will go out of JFK, ORD, CTL, on Big Planes.
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