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The President of Emirates Airline speculated that we would hear from Airbus regarding the neo (New Engine Option) A380.
Officially, the undelivered A380's on the books number 83 in Middle East, 25 in Asia, and 37 in Europe. My own personal guess is that counting airlines who want new A380's you get 83 in Middle East, 0 in Asia, and 3 in Europe. Since production rate is roughly 30 per year, the program has 3-5 years at most without the new engines.
The first airframe was delivered 8 years as of 15 October.
Emirates has offered an order an of at least 140 neoA380 over 12 years (enough to replace every current engine A380 that they have ordered).
Lufthansa is the world's largest operator of the B747-8i, They have outfitted the upper deck with either 32 business class seats. This is a far cry from the 76 business seats and 14 first class pods that Emirates puts in the upper deck of the A380. There is no indication beyond the wildest fantasies of Boeing executives that Emirates consider the B747-8i a replacement for Airbus.
But the lack of decision to develop a neo A380 may cause a terrible reaction in Dubai. Worst case order Emirates cancels some of it's existing order. Emirates will reach the halfway point on it's deliveries in a few weeks. In the worst worst case scenario Emirates cancels it's final order of 50A380s and production ends in one year.
On 8 June 2010 Emirates extended it's order to 90 planes for immediate Entry into Service
On November-December 2013 Emirates ordered an additional 50 planes to save the A380 program. A 2016 Entry into Service was planned.
As of today they have received delivery of 67 planes.
Last edited by PacoMartin; 10-10-2015 at 03:45 PM..
I still think the -380 is something of a white elephant. It would appear that Airbus rolled it out more for reasons of pride and prestige than economic practicality (think Concorde): it's big for the sake of big; as though unseating that title from the 747 was a goal in its own right. I suspect that was the REAL reason that behemoth was made. Sales have been stagnant and if not for Emirates, it's highly unlikely it would've been made at all. Remember that Airbus did not actually conceive that monstrosity on their own; they were the ones that merely built it. Back in the early 1990's, McDonnell-Douglas had pitched the MD-12, which was essentially an identical plane. They found virtually no market for it back then. So they shelved it. But Airbus, whose real motivation for existence is to be a thorn in Boeings side went ahead and built it anyway. Even though it has no real chance of ever surpassing even the 300 airframe mark.
Lets pray Spirit or Frontier doesnt get their hands on a A380. Can you imagine 853 people on that plane with no water or food unless you pay and seats that cant recline, how miserable that would be.
It would appear that Airbus rolled it out more for reasons of pride and prestige than economic practicality (think Concorde):
It does seem to be that they always want to build the most innovative airframes. However it seems as if the industry rewards them with very low sales
Production quantities for innovative airframes
20 Concorde (fastest)
80 A318 (Baby Bus) (operates on shortest runway)
28 A340-200 8,000 nautical miles 218 A340-300 7,400 nautical miles
34 A340-500 8,670 nautical miles HGW: 9,000 nautical miles (furthest range)
97 A340-600 7,750 nautical miles HGW: 7,900 nautical miles
172 A380 as of today (largest)
Order quantities for non-innovative airframes
1473 A319
4765 A320
1614 A321
631 A330-200; 42 A330-200F
736 A330-300
Quote:
Originally Posted by Des-Lab
Sales have been stagnant and if not for Emirates, it's highly unlikely it would've been made at all.
That's an interesting point. Airbus wouldn't start the program back in 2000 unless it had 50 firm orders (not counting options). The six initial customers shouldn't all have counted as two of them were for delayed delivery (ILFC cancelled in 2011 and Virgin Atlantic has delayed their order so often that it can be considered a phantom order). They really only had 37 passenger and 2 freight orders.
Virgin Atlantic: 6 passenger 6 options (2015 entry into service)
After the program was started with the 6 nominal customers, another 10 freighters were ordered by FedEx, and 2 passenger jets were ordered by Qatar (2014 entry into service).
Then 9-11 happened, which should have been a wake-up call to Airbus. They could see that the freighter program was in trouble, and that passenger demand was plummeting. I think at this point they could have delayed the project, but intense pride took over.
Shortly after 9-11 Emirates and Lufthansa each ordered another 15 passenger jets and 5 options . (Lufthansa would eventually take 14 deliveries).
I am skeptical that Emirates can be said to have made the project happen, but eventually they would be the programs greatest cheerleaders. They had 58 orders in before their first delivery, and increased that number to 90 orders after only a few deliveries. Finally in 2013 they ordered another 50 with Rolls Royce engines to save the program.
While Airbus claims to have 145 unfilled orders on the books, I think that most of them are fiction. The nonfictional ones are "3 to British Airways, 6 to Etihad, and 4 to Qatar, 23 to Emirates with Engine Alliance GP7000 jet engines". That's about 15 months of production.
Although these other orders are listed as firm, I have my doubts. I think that Emirates will punish Airbus if they don't announce a neoA380 production. They will want to stop deliveries with the current engines, and proceed to move to their next strategy. Qantas and Transaero are nearly bankrupt. Singapore was roped into taking 5 more orders in order to return to Airbus their 5 A340's used on their failed nonstops to USA. Air France has stated they do not want their last 2. Amadeo is a joke as nobody is going to lease them. Virgin Atlantic has delayed their order three times already. Air Austral is a tiny airline that was looking for a cheap way to transport vacationers from Paris to their island in the Seychelles. They thought they could outfit an A380 with one class.
Orders that are eyed with skepticism
50 : EMIRATES (With Rolls Royce Engines)
8 : QANTAS AIRWAYS
5 : SINGAPORE AIRLINES
2 : ASIANA AIRLINES
2 : AIR FRANCE
20 : AMEDEO (leasing company)
6 : VIRGIN ATLANTIC
4 : TRANSAERO AIRLINES
2 : AIR AUSTRAL
Last edited by PacoMartin; 10-11-2015 at 09:17 PM..
Lets pray Spirit or Frontier doesnt get their hands on a A380. Can you imagine 853 people on that plane with no water or food unless you pay and seats that cant recline, how miserable that would be.
AA competes with Air France and two other off price airlines in flying to Paris. So the potential to fill a large plane is there. In 2009 AA ordered two A380's with the intention of configuring them as one class (840 seats). Although they have not cancelled their order officially, they are no longer making plans.
I think the double decker trainset in Japan carries just over 800 people on 8 cars, although they can be attached two together to make a 16 car trainset.
I think that Emirates will punish Airbus if they don't announce a neoA380 production. They will want to stop deliveries with the current engines, and proceed to move to their next strategy.
Now THAT is another interesting point. That scenario would definitely put Airbus into a major quagmire of a Catch-22. Because they can't even really sell many new 380's, what is going to happen when the NEO option comes out and the used market becomes flooded with first gen frames? Many of these aircraft are already not wanted. What will that do to the value of both? Airbus will be forced to choose between appeasing one of their largest customers against the financial stability of the company-although that doesn't seem to be a primary concern.
Perhaps Airbus should study up on history and learn what happens when you become too reliant on and dictated to by one airline.
It does seem to be that they always want to build the most innovative airframes. However it seems as if the industry rewards them with very low sales
Production quantities for innovative airframes
20 Concorde (fastest)
80 A318 (Baby Bus) (operates on shortest runway)
28 A340-200 8,000 nautical miles 218 A340-300 7,400 nautical miles
34 A340-500 8,670 nautical miles HGW: 9,000 nautical miles (furthest range)
97 A340-600 7,750 nautical miles HGW: 7,900 nautical miles
172 A380 as of today (largest)
Order quantities for non-innovative airframes
1473 A319
4765 A320
1614 A321
631 A330-200; 42 A330-200F
736 A330-300
I would think the A320 was innovative, not the A340. Wasn't the A320 first, and first with the side stick?
I would think the A320 was innovative, not the A340. Wasn't the A320 first, and first with the side stick?
And I also believe it was the first full sized passenger jetliner to crash at an airshow in front of thousands of horrified spectators. When Airbus was so proudly trying to demo the FBW system, the plane flew straight into a forest and erupted into a fireball.
And I also believe it was the first full sized passenger jetliner to crash at an airshow in front of thousands of horrified spectators. When Airbus was so proudly trying to demo the FBW system, the plane flew straight into a forest and erupted into a fireball.
That was an old-school mess-up. Spectators lined up in the wrong place, change of plans at the last second, unfamiliar airport.
FBW or no, if the pilot puts the aircraft in an unrecoverable situation, bad things are bound to happen. The pilots put the plane at 30 ft, lowest possible airspeed, maximum angle of attack, extended gear. Then they realized that there was an obstacle in their path.
From that point in time, it's cold equations. The obstacle will strike in X seconds. You need Y pounds of thrust to gain sufficient lift, your engines take Z seconds to spool up. You can have mechanical linkage or FBW - thrust/drag/lift is the same.
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