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Bearing in-mind that I have no expertise in these matters, I'd say that a country such as Russia or, maybe, China is, especially in military aviation, better-organised than is the U S A for the state to get value-for-money. It seems capable of making a passable poor man's version of the latest technology for a fraction of the US cost. Therefore, there may be fewer opportunities for their defence-contractors to make massive profits, which are as often covert as overt. Another of my impressions is that if one is to operate outside the old-pals'-act, there's more scope for so-doing in military rather than civil aviation. However, some American plane designs appear to result from the inelegant musings of those that are so highly-qualified or well-placed that instead of them being rejected as they ought to be, no end of moneys are lavished on such flawed efforts so as to render them somehow successful. And in the U K there's so little planemaking that it's hard to observe, except to see that the best-paid, most securely-employed and highly-respected are in other fields, such as the upper echelons of the National Health Service medical profession or BroadcastingLicenceFee-funded BBC. You wouldn't believe some of the excesses
From the above post... "inelegant musings"... WTF? That's not how it works.
In any case, aviation is often boom-or-bust, tied to fuel prices and business cycles. A lucrative government contract for a new fighter or bomber may make the stockholders happy, and provide excellent, high-paying jobs to workers, but when that contract ends and the company doesn't get another, the company may fold. Examples: Fairchild-Republic delivered the last A-10 in March 1984. They tried unsuccessfully to produce the T-46 (contract cancelled) and where is Fairchild-Republic now? Ling-Temco-Vought (LTV) tried to get the Air Force to buy the A-7G Strikefighter in the late 1980s, an A-7 with an F-16 engine. The government wisely did nothing with that POS and where is LTV now?
I graduated from college with a degree in aero engineering; many of my friends went into aerospace after college, and only one is still there. One hired by McDonnell-Douglas ended up at Boeing with the buyout, then was "retired" when Boeing Military shut down the Wichita plant, got hired by Bombardier-Learjet, and lost that job to layoffs, too. Two others were with Lockheed... not anymore. Think about how many companies either divested themselves of aviation (General Dynamics, formerly CONVAIR; North American-Rockwell) or were bought out by another company and lost their identity (AVRO, Grumman, McDonnell-Douglas, Swearingen, among others).
General aviation was particularly subject to boom-bust cycles. In the late 1970s it was go-go-go. Cessna produced about 10,000 of the 18,000 general aviation aircraft produced in 1978. Beech, Cessna, Piper, Mooney, Aero Commander, Varga, Bellanca... all are either gone, or have been through bankruptcy at least once, often relying on foreign capital just to stay solvent.
A great design in the business does not guarantee success. Examples: Boeing model 247, Lockheed L-1011, Convair 880 and 990, Beech Skipper. The market may preclude a great design from profit.
Airlines? Since 1980, how many upstarts are still in business in the US? There are periods of great profit followed by bankruptcy for all of the major US airlines, some of that is a self-inflicted gunshot wound to the foot, and some is due to market conditions.
Edit: One of my college professors, who taught combustion and propulsion and had worked for General Electric de-smoking the J79 engine, said that going into the aerospace business was like you and your next-door neighbor throwing your money in the street on a windy day. You may get more blow back at you, but it's a good bet you won't.
Last edited by SluggoF16; 02-18-2016 at 11:58 AM..
From the above post... "inelegant musings"... WTF? That's not how it works.
In any case, aviation is often boom-or-bust, tied to fuel prices and business cycles. A lucrative government contract for a new fighter or bomber may make the stockholders happy, and provide excellent, high-paying jobs to workers, but when that contract ends and the company doesn't get another, the company may fold. Examples: Fairchild-Republic delivered the last A-10 in March 1984. They tried unsuccessfully to produce the T-46 (contract cancelled) and where is Fairchild-Republic now? Ling-Temco-Vought (LTV) tried to get the Air Force to buy the A-7G Strikefighter in the late 1980s, an A-7 with an F-16 engine. The government wisely did nothing with that POS and where is LTV now?
I graduated from college with a degree in aero engineering; many of my friends went into aerospace after college, and only one is still there. One hired by McDonnell-Douglas ended up at Boeing with the buyout, then was "retired" when Boeing Military shut down the Wichita plant, got hired by Bombardier-Learjet, and lost that job to layoffs, too. Two others were with Lockheed... not anymore. Think about how many companies either divested themselves of aviation (General Dynamics, formerly CONVAIR; North American-Rockwell) or were bought out by another company and lost their identity (AVRO, Grumman, McDonnell-Douglas, Swearingen, among others).
General aviation was particularly subject to boom-bust cycles. In the late 1970s it was go-go-go. Cessna produced about 10,000 of the 18,000 general aviation aircraft produced in 1978. Beech, Cessna, Piper, Mooney, Aero Commander, Varga, Bellanca... all are either gone, or have been through bankruptcy at least once, often relying on foreign capital just to stay solvent.
Airlines? Since 1980, how many upstarts are still in business in the US? There are periods of great profit followed by bankruptcy for all of the major US airlines, some of that is a self-inflicted gunshot wound, and some is due to market conditions.
I agree SluggoF16
But don't you think this was a consolidation era and it's behind us
It would be very difficult, let's say, Boeing to go bankrupt right
Well Lockheed is no longer in the commercial manufacturing business. Airbus has had some spectacular fiscal catastrophes. Lockheed is struggling to make a profit on Dreamliners and 747-8s, but is making a huge profit on B777s and a substantial, but smaller profit on the B737.
Bombardier (Canada), and Embraer (Brazil) have proven to be profitable manufacturers of regional jets, so new players Sukhoi (Russia), Antonov (Ukraine) , Mitsubishi (Japan), and Comac (China) want to get into the game.
^^^ But I doubt that that's tougher than automobile making. Consequently car manufacture is so competitive that its vehicles tend to be more affordable and user-friendly than the products of the aviation industry. And I'm not aware of massive profits being made by motorcarmakers. Meanwhile, the unpronounceable Bombardier may be in trouble
^^^ But I doubt that that's tougher than automobile making. Consequently car manufacture is so competitive that its vehicles tend to be more affordable and user-friendly than the products of the aviation industry. And I'm not aware of massive profits being made by motorcarmakers
Quite right
Auto market is probably at it's peak in terms of competition.
And none of these models are like really bad compared to others.
It's going to be hard to be "massively profitable" in any industry that has large capital needs and an extremely high amount of return risk (Beta).
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