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Surprisingly Airbus has not completely given up on USA airlines. As I said American Airlines gave up on four engine aircraft in the 1980s, and United has too many varied routes. Delta's planes are much older, and they have not bought very many B777s and no Boeing 787 Dreamliners. They have ordered 25 A350s.
Since Delta flies a lot of international flights from JFK and ATL they may benefit from having the larger plane in going to Europe. Delta may be interested in purchasing the used A380s that will come on the market soon.
Delta's Widebody Fleet and average age
82 Boeing 767 20.2 years
7 Boeing 747 26.1 years (to be retired by year end)
18 Boeing 777 12.5 years (very small fleet for a global airline)
0 Boeing 787 No Dreamliners in fleet
42 Airbus A330 9.6 years
1 Airbus A350 0.2 year
Delta's eighteen 777s are -200 model series which is considerably smaller than the -300 series. The -200 series was last delivered to any airline in the world in 2014.
That's pretty interesting about Delta's fleet composition. I didn't know they had relatively few 777s - do they have any -300s on order? Or are they going all-in on the A350 for their longhaul fleet?
I can see them using a few A380s for the trunk routes from JFK and ATL - and you're right, they can get them relatively cheap on lease, though of course they'd have to also ramp up the crew training and spares support.
Meanwhile - what would they do to eventually replace their aging 767 fleet? More A330s?
That's pretty interesting about Delta's fleet composition. I didn't know they had relatively few 777s - do they have any -300s on order? Or are they going all-in on the A350 for their longhaul fleet?
I can see them using a few A380s for the trunk routes from JFK and ATL - and you're right, they can get them relatively cheap on lease, though of course they'd have to also ramp up the crew training and spares support.
Meanwhile - what would they do to eventually replace their aging 767 fleet? More A330s?
Yes, Delta only had 18 777s -- 8 200ER and 10 200LR. No 300s on order -- Delta presently has 25 A350-900 (two of which they have already received; first revenue flight is DTW-NRT on 10/30) and 25 A330-900 NEOs (basically an A330 with new RR Trent engines) on order -- that is it. Once the 747s are gone, the A350 will be the largest aircraft (by capacity) in Delta's fleet.
I find it very, very unlikely that Delta or any US airline would lease any A380s -- there is just no need for it. Too large and expensive to use.
Speaking of too large, Boeing's replacement for the 777, the stretched 777X has a total of zero orders from airlines in the Americas, both north and south. Indeed, outside of Asia and the ME3, the 777x has a total of 20 orders, all from Lufthansa. If the 777X is too large for most airlines, the A380 certainly is. Right now, it appears the 'sweet spot' in the widebody market is the 789/A359 sized frames.
As for 767 replacements, most likely it will be a combination of A330-900 and whatever Middle-of-Market frames Boeing and Airbus come up with.
Meanwhile - what would they do to eventually replace their aging 767 fleet? More A330s?
82 Boeing 767s breakdown
21 Boeing 767-400ER Delta will keep these as they are 5 years younger
58 Boeing 767-300ER To be replaced by Airbus A330-900neo & A350-900.
3 Boeing 767-300 To be replaced by narrowbodies next month
The A350-900s are interesting since 25 will be ordered. They will downgage some of the B747 routes and upgage some of the B767 routes.
==============
American Airlines has the lowest exposure to 4 engine aircraft of any USA airline procuring 16 Boeing 747-100 in the early 1970s, 1 Boeing 747-200, and 2 Boeing 747-SP. They have not touched one since 1994.
United Airlines has had the greatest procurement of the B777 and B787 to replace their 88 total Boeing 747s
.Delta owned as many as 36 B747s in the past and is considered the last hope (admittedly long shot) for a USA airline to purchase the used A380s.
If Airbus stops producing the A380, then Emirates may return the leased ones at 12 years, and possibly keep the aircraft they purchased for longer than 12 years. Emirates prefers a young fleet, but they may have no choice as they spent all that money on the A380 terminal at Dubai. The aircraft may be nearly worthless on the open market, and Emirates can't buy new ones.
The very first A380 was delivered ten years ago next month. Singapore Airlines has 10 year leases while Emirates has 12 year leases. It never found a buyer and will probably be stripped down for parts.
If the same thing happens with the next 4 Singapore Airlines A380s next year, then the price of the used A380 will drop like a rock.
Speaking of too large, Boeing's replacement for the 777, the stretched 777X has a total of zero orders from airlines in the Americas, both north and south. Indeed, outside of Asia and the ME3, the 777x has a total of 20 orders, all from Lufthansa.
Just confirming your statement 77X orders
150 Emirates
60 Qatar Airways
30 Unidentified Customer(s)
25 Etihad Airways
21 Cathay Pacific
20 All Nippon Airways
20 Lufthansa
326 total
Quote:
Originally Posted by punctus_contra_punctum
If the 777X is too large for most airlines, the A380 certainly is. Right now, it appears the 'sweet spot' in the widebody market is the 789/A359 sized frames.
The B747 is so iconic, that many people do not realize that only a small percentage of the B747s were delivered to the USA. Only 204 passenger versions were delivered to USA airlines in 48 years. The enthusiasm waned very quickly after the initial orders in the 1960s. After the long range versions were produced, we needed a few to get to Asia.
Boeing deliveries of B747s to USA (out of 1533 as deliveries December 1969- August 2017)
106 -100 order placed in the 1960s (variant that could only reach Europe, nothing important in Asia, not even Tokyo)
16 -SP (special purpose longer range)
22 -200B (could reach Asia, mostly bought by Northwest Airlines)
60 -400 Northwest Airlines (16) and United Airlines (44 planes)
===
204 passenger 747s for airlines
109 USA: Military, Private , Freight, Leasing companies (GECAS & International Lease Finance Co )
B747 Deliveries to foreign airlines were much healthier
108 Japan Airlines
94 British Airways A380
93 Singapore Airlines A380
81 Lufthansa Group A380
79 Korean Air A380
59 Cathay Pacific Airways
57 Qantas A380
53 Air France A380
48 China Airlines
45 KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines
45 All Nippon Airways Co., Ltd.
26 Thai Airways International A380
26 Saudi Arabian Airlines
24 Malaysia Airlines A380
Many of these airlines did fly some A380s with exception of Japanese and Hong Kong Airlines (much to Airbus dismay as they were expected to be major customers).
The archetype for a busy international route in the West is JFK to LHR with 18 daily flights each way with roughly an average of 270 seats each direction. British Airways is not about to fly an A380 on this route, because businessmen value frequency. In Asia they have an international route with over 80 trips per day, and they have even busier domestic routes. Airbus expected to sell hundreds of A380s in Asia.
Last edited by PacoMartin; 09-27-2017 at 08:54 PM..
To further underscore the opposite trend of what Airbus forecast for A380 demand in Asia (especially Japan), Japan Airlines (JAL) ordered A350s in 2013 for their longhaul fleet with the expectation they would replace its 777s.
This would signify that JAL is forecasting soft demand or less growth from the Japanese market if it is downsizing its longhaul capacity.
To further underscore the opposite trend of what Airbus forecast for A380 demand in Asia (especially Japan), Japan Airlines (JAL) ordered A350s in 2013 for their longhaul fleet with the expectation they would replace its 777s. This would signify that JAL is forecasting soft demand or less growth from the Japanese market if it is downsizing its longhaul capacity.
This is also a big win for Airbus because Boeing had pretty much a stranglehold on Japanese airline fleets until now.
ANA still has 26 more B777s on order
JAL has been an All-Boeing fleet until this order
50 Boeing 737 Next Gen 7.7 years
37 Boeing 767 11.9 years
39 Boeing 777 14.1 years
34 Boeing 787 3.1 years
160 TOTAL 9.2 years
ANA still has an All Boeing widebody fleet
23 Boeing 777-200
29 Boeing 777-300
JAL has been an All-Boeing fleet until this order
50 Boeing 737 Next Gen 7.7 years
37 Boeing 767 11.9 years
39 Boeing 777 14.1 years
34 Boeing 787 3.1 years
160 TOTAL 9.2 years
ANA still has an All Boeing widebody fleet
23 Boeing 777-200
29 Boeing 777-300
Don't forget ANA's 787 fleet -they have over 50, and 25 of the 787-9 on order till 2020.
Just as the US airlines serving Japan (namely Tokyo) and other Asian destinations have to fly from several dispersed US destinations - necessitating deployment of a smaller capacity long haul fleet (e.g. 777s & 787s), the same would also apply to ANA and JAL - which fly from Tokyo (both NRT and HND) to about 8-9 US destinations each.
Just as the US airlines serving Japan (namely Tokyo) and other Asian destinations have to fly from several dispersed US destinations - necessitating deployment of a smaller capacity long haul fleet (e.g. 777s & 787s), the same would also apply to ANA and JAL - which fly from Tokyo (both NRT and HND) to about 8-9 US destinations each.
The problem with airplane size is that airports generally benefit from larger planes, while airlines generally benefit from frequency and or multiple destinations.
Australia is unusual in that it has very few routes. Qantas flew 1,267,070 people in 2016 on 5 routes. That is almost 350 each direction per route per day
LAX-BNE
SFO-SYD
LAX-MEL A380
LAX-SYD A380
DFW-SYD A380
Coupled with the long distances it flies the A380 on 3 of the 5 routes (requiring 6 A380s). The other 6 A380s are tasked with getting Australians to London. While it is certain that not every trip to europe wants to end in London, Qantas does not serve a different European city.
Emirates derives huge advantages from the A380, not because of it's seat count, but because they have a lot of passengers that want premium seating on it's own deck, and not divided by the rabble by just a curtain.If they were a more normal airline, they would fine the B777 just as profitable.
But airports struggle to work with any size plane that the airlines fly which is profitable. In some cases you have ludicrous examples of LAX, one of the most crowded airports in the world being bombarded with small regional jets and turboprop all day from San Diego and Santa Barbara because of the desire to have half hour frequencies.
The problem with airplane size is that airports generally benefit from larger planes, while airlines generally benefit from frequency and or multiple destinations.
Australia is unusual in that it has very few routes. Qantas flew 1,267,070 people in 2016 on 5 routes. That is almost 350 each direction per route per day
LAX-BNE
SFO-SYD
LAX-MEL A380
LAX-SYD A380
DFW-SYD A380
Coupled with the long distances it flies the A380 on 3 of the 5 routes (requiring 6 A380s). The other 6 A380s are tasked with getting Australians to London. While it is certain that not every trip to europe wants to end in London, Qantas does not serve a different European city.
Emirates derives huge advantages from the A380, not because of it's seat count, but because they have a lot of passengers that want premium seating on it's own deck, and not divided by the rabble by just a curtain.If they were a more normal airline, they would fine the B777 just as profitable.
But airports struggle to work with any size plane that the airlines fly which is profitable. In some cases you have ludicrous examples of LAX, one of the most crowded airports in the world being bombarded with small regional jets and turboprop all day from San Diego and Santa Barbara because of the desire to have half hour frequencies.
Yes, you've explained well the tug of war between limited takeoff/landing slots at very congested airports (e.g. LAX, LHR, NRT) and the desire of airlines to fill their planes and have frequencies of service.
I think the betting by Airbus that the limit on flight slots @ Narita (and high use of 747s) would drive the demand for the A380 went awry with JAL going bankrupt and traffic going soft in the late 2000s recession, as well as opening up Haneda to more international flights.
Australia checks off all the boxes for driving A380 demand (fewer routes/high capacity to few cities).
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It's the frequency Kenneth, get it??
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