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Orders for passenger B747s dropped to nearly zero after 1996. Only 8 were ordered from 1996-2002. The US flagged fleets (United and Northwest) last ordered them in 1985 as it was the same year that twin engine TransAtlantic flights began.
With only 40 some passenger B747s ordered after the 1980s it was no wonder that Boeing could see the writing on the wall and elected to get out of the cooperative partnership with Airbus to build very large 4 engine passenger planes. As we all know Airbus went ahead with the A380 program without Boeing.
What if Airbus had killed the A380 program, especially because of 9-11? Would Boeing have continued the B747-8 program primarily for freight aircraft and to meet the VIP requests?
If Boeing had completely cancelled production of the B747-400 and killed the B747-8i program, would the POTUS have downsized from his present planes and purchased a B777-300ER business plane with 30% less square footage?
Sometimes I think he would be better off with a B787-9 aircraft and just concede that he will always have a second plane tail him with support team.
The B737 doesn't have the range, and it is actually an extreme fantasy to think the POTUS would fly around in a business jet followed by a large jet Can you imagine if something happened to the large jet, and the POTUS shows up somewhere with less than a dozen support people?
Last edited by PacoMartin; 05-19-2018 at 01:02 PM..
The A380 was built for one reason and one reason only:
To wrest the title and prestige of "Biggest" from Boeing.
To the French, that's a HUGE victory in its own right. Airbus themselves knew this albatross was/is simply not viable. But they're still building it anyway. With their subsidies, they have the luxury of being able to prioritize such superficial titles. I'm not sure 9/11 not happening would've made any difference here.
And second, ETOPS is what REALLY killed the 747, not the A380, which was really just the cherry on top.
When TWA flew the first 767's Transatlantic in ca.1985, THAT was really the beginning of the end.
Boeing was, in many ways, a victim of their own success, thanks to the 777.
As iconic and beloved as the 747 is, its time has simply come and gone.
The two Presidential Airplanes were ordered on 08 July 1986 and the first one was delivered on 23 August 1990. President Bush flew to Finland on September 8–9, 1990 in the first international trip on the Presidential B747.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Des-Lab
And second, ETOPS is what REALLY killed the 747, not the A380, which was really just the cherry on top.
Well I agree with that statement 100%. As far as future orders went the end of the 747 era was visible about the same time the B747s were being delivered to the President in August 1990.
Up through the end of 1990 almost 1200 B747s of all variants were ordered. ETOPS began in the Atlantic in 1985 and in the Pacific in 1988. After 1990 only 40 passenger B747-400 and B747-400ERs were ever ordered. I think that the fact that only 36 B747-8 passenger planes were ever ordered by airlines was not a shock, but Boeing felt they had to have something to offer that came close to the A380.
In January 1993, it was now clear that ETOPS and the downturn in B747 orders meant that the future market for Very Large Commercial Transport (VLCT), was going to be limited. But the airlines were not convinced the VLCT was dead, as runways were beginning to get very crowded.
Boeing and several companies in the Airbus consortium started a joint feasibility to develop a plane together . This joint study was abandoned two years later as Boeing's interest having declined because analysts thought that such a product was unlikely to cover the projected $15 billion development cost.
The last passenger version of the 747-400 was delivered in April 2005 to China Airlines. The last non VIP passenger version of the Boeing 747-8 was ordered in on September 2012 and the one was delivered in Jul 2017 to Korean Air Lines. All that remains now is the Presidential planes and freighter versions.
The whole point of the exercise is that Boeing would have never developed the B747-8 at all if it wasn't for the A380. What would the POTUS have done if that had happened?
Last edited by PacoMartin; 05-22-2018 at 08:52 AM..
POTUS would be in a B787-10 (maybe a 777-300ER or 777X )
Not everything would "Fit" but Internationally the B747 (Twin) goes along anyway.
They could setup a "chase" plane for Additional Staff, "Extra" security, "Extra" Press, the press pool on the plane might get somewhat smaller, Not every Mid level staffer would get a seat on AF1.
They could setup a "chase" plane for Additional Staff, "Extra" security, "Extra" Press, the press pool on the plane might get somewhat smaller, Not every Mid level staffer would get a seat on AF1.
I suspect there are a lot of chase planes anyway. When President Clinton went to Africa in 1998, there were about 1300 people involved in the travels. The VC-25 is the modified B747 that we think of us Air Force One. But there were also 5 other passenger planes involved. Plus over 100 hours of strategic lift planes, and 100 hours of aerial refueling planes
Other trips to Chile and China that same year involved three additional passenger planes but still a lot of flight hours for support Aircraft. Over 600 for Chile and over 900 for China.
The two leaders, along with their spouses and private guests, later had dinner at the Le Jules Verne restaurant on the second level of the Eiffel Tower and their meal was prepared by Alain Ducasse. On July 14, Trump attended the Bastille Day Military Parade.
One would presume a trip to Paris would not require that many support aircraft, but nobody knows. It is my understanding that a strategic lift plane to carry the limousine, helicopters, and support automobiles for the Secret Service is standard for even the friendliest of countries. Possibly at least one passenger jet with support persons is the minimum, but for all I know it could be three planes.
My basic understanding is that the bare minimum is a VC-25, two C-5's and a C20 hiding somewhere close by. The C-5's hold Marine One, the Beast, and Secret Service support vehicles.
The whole point of the exercise is that Boeing would have never developed the B747-8 at all if it wasn't for the A380. What would the POTUS have done if that had happened?
He would fly on another plane, most likely a 777-300. And what would be so wrong with that? After all, before Air Force One was a 747, it was a 707, which of course is smaller than either a 747 or a 777.
That said, I don't know if there are any specific security issues that mandate the presidential plane having four engines. But if so, then when the new forthcoming 747s wear out, their replacements would probably have to be custom built from scratch, at an exorbitant cost. I just don't see four-engine planes having much of a future.
He would fly on another plane, most likely a 777-300. And what would be so wrong with that? After all, before Air Force One was a 747, it was a 707, which of course is smaller than either a 747 or a 777.
I suppose you're right
5179 sq feet B747-8
3641 sq feet B777-300ER
Quote:
Originally Posted by bus man
That said, I don't know if there are any specific security issues that mandate the presidential plane having four engines. But if so, then when the new forthcoming 747s wear out, their replacements would probably have to be custom built from scratch, at an exorbitant cost. I just don't see four-engine planes having much of a future.
Nobody is going to custom build from scratch a plane.
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