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First, my congratulations to the Kansas City organization. Watching them play I do not think anyone would argue that they did not earn the championship.
The most immediate next events will be the post season awards, so before we get into the "wait 'til next year" analysis of our teams, we might try predicting the winners.
In each category I will provide who I think will win (TWW) and who I think deserves to win. (DTW)
AL MVP
TWW..Josh Donaldson
DTW..Josh Donaldson
NL MVP
TWW..Bryce Harper
DTW..Bryce Harper
AL Cy Young
TWW..David Price or Dallas Keuchel
DTW..Chris Sale
NL Cy Young
TWW..Jake Arrieta or Zack Greinke
DTW..Clayton Kershaw
AL Rookie of the Year
TWW..Francisco Lindor or Carson Smith
DTW..Francisco Lindor
NL Rookie of the Year
TWW..Kris Bryant
DTW..Kris Bryant
AL Manager of the Year
TWW..John Gibbons
DTW..John Gibbons
NL Manager of the Year
TWW..Joe Maddon
DTW..Joe Maddon
First, my congratulations to the Kansas City organization. Watching them play I do not think anyone would argue that they did not earn the championship.
The most immediate next events will be the post season awards, so before we get into the "wait 'til next year" analysis of our teams, we might try predicting the winners.
In each category I will provide who I think will win (TWW) and who I think deserves to win. (DTW)
AL MVP
TWW..Josh Donaldson
DTW..Josh Donaldson
NL MVP
TWW..Bryce Harper
DTW..Bryce Harper
AL Cy Young
TWW..David Price or Dallas Keuchel
DTW..Chris Sale
NL Cy Young
TWW..Jake Arrieta or Zack Greinke
DTW..Clayton Kershaw
AL Rookie of the Year
TWW..Francisco Lindor or Carson Smith
DTW..Francisco Lindor
NL Rookie of the Year
TWW..Kris Bryant
DTW..Kris Bryant
AL Manager of the Year
TWW..John Gibbons
DTW..John Gibbons
NL Manager of the Year
TWW..Joe Maddon
DTW..Joe Maddon
I can buy most of that. Except Joe Maddon. I think it has to go to Terry Collins and my second choice would be Mike Matheny. Maddon had a bunch of kids for sure, but they're all very talented kids. He also had Arrieta and Lester. There was no adversity. Collins had a mess for 2/3rds of the season - a bad roster, Wright's injury, Harvey's melodrama, etc. etc. And Matheny was managing a hospital triage unit while coping with the offseason death of a top prospect. What Maddon accomplished doesn't even come close to those two.
I can buy most of that. Except Joe Maddon. I think it has to go to Terry Collins and my second choice would be Mike Matheny. Maddon had a bunch of kids for sure, but they're all very talented kids. He also had Arrieta and Lester. There was no adversity. Collins had a mess for 2/3rds of the season - a bad roster, Wright's injury, Harvey's melodrama, etc. etc. And Matheny was managing a hospital triage unit while coping with the offseason death of a top prospect. What Maddon accomplished doesn't even come close to those two.
I agree, Cubs were NOT a surprise at all. This was NOT the best job Maddon ever did.
Mets for 3 months were a MASH unit somehow staying around .500.For a while backup catcher while not on D/L was not available, nor the starter. Mayberry and Flores batted cleanup at times!
I can buy most of that. Except Joe Maddon. I think it has to go to Terry Collins and my second choice would be Mike Matheny. Maddon had a bunch of kids for sure, but they're all very talented kids. He also had Arrieta and Lester. There was no adversity. Collins had a mess for 2/3rds of the season - a bad roster, Wright's injury, Harvey's melodrama, etc. etc. And Matheny was managing a hospital triage unit while coping with the offseason death of a top prospect. What Maddon accomplished doesn't even come close to those two.
You are right, what Maddon accomplished isn't close to what was achieved by Collins and Matheny, it was far better.
To wit.
2014 wins
St. Louis 90
New York 79
Chicago 73
2015 Wins
St. Louis 100 (+10)
New York 90 (+11)
Chicago 97 (+24)
Every team has injuries and clubhouse adversity, however the impact of those things cannot be quantitatively measured, they are matters of personal opinion. What isn't subject to debate is the math and Maddon improved his team by more than twice as many wins as either of your champions. Further, he did this at least a year in advance of what the media was predicting for the Cubs future.
The media votes on these awards and had they held Chicago to be of the least merit among those three teams before the season began, so the Cubs improvement represents the biggest upset to them. That is why I think it likely that Maddon will win.
You are right, what Maddon accomplished isn't close to what was achieved by Collins and Matheny, it was far better.
To wit.
2014 wins
St. Louis 90
New York 79
Chicago 73
2015 Wins
St. Louis 100 (+10)
New York 90 (+11)
Chicago 97 (+24)
Every team has injuries and clubhouse adversity, however the impact of those things cannot be quantitatively measured, they are matters of personal opinion. What isn't subject to debate is the math and Maddon improved his team by more than twice as many wins as either of your champions. Further, he did this at least a year in advance of what the media was predicting for the Cubs future.
The media votes on these awards and had they held Chicago to be of the least merit among those three teams before the season began, so the Cubs improvement represents the biggest upset to them. That is why I think it likely that Maddon will win.
And yet you're not giving the AL award to Jeff Bannister.
So if you're Jeff Samardjiza, what are you doing?? There was talk up through pretty much his last 2 or 3 starts about whether the White Sox would even extend the QO to Samardjiza because he was that bad. If I'm him, I'm accepting it, and hopping, skipping & laughing all the way to the bank while I go cash that $15.8 million check for this season, and hope I pitch a lot better next season, because I certainly wouldn't have given him $15.8 million if I was a GM.
And yet you're not giving the AL award to Jeff Bannister.
I view the improvement of the Rangers as masked luck rather than managerial achievement. Given their run differential of + 18 runs, that projects to 83 wins, five fewer than they actually won.
Toronto on the other hand was at plus 221 runs, which projects to 103 wins, ten fewer than they actually won.
Unless you suggest that distributing your total runs evenly across 162 games is a skill rather than luck, we may say that the Blue Jays had especially poor luck in 2015 while the Rangers were rather fortunate.
I expect that the Blue Jays will continue to be contenders in 2016, I do not expect that of the Rangers based on their 2015 performance.
I view the improvement of the Rangers as masked luck rather than managerial achievement. Given their run differential of + 18 runs, that projects to 83 wins, five fewer than they actually won.
Toronto on the other hand was at plus 221 runs, which projects to 103 wins, ten fewer than they actually won.
Unless you suggest that distributing your total runs evenly across 162 games is a skill rather than luck, we may say that the Blue Jays had especially poor luck in 2015 while the Rangers were rather fortunate.
I expect that the Blue Jays will continue to be contenders in 2016, I do not expect that of the Rangers based on their 2015 performance.
To summarize, the Jays underperformed, the Rangers overperformed, yet you're awarding Gibbons the MOY for not winning as many games as his team should have.
To summarize, the Jays underperformed, the Rangers overperformed, yet you're awarding Gibbons the MOY for not winning as many games as his team should have.
Gotcha.
Incredible analysis.
I am attributing the under/over performances to luck, did you not understand that from my post? I should have thought it clear from:
Quote:
Unless you suggest that distributing your total runs evenly across 162 games is a skill rather than luck, we may say that the Blue Jays had especially poor luck in 2015 while the Rangers were rather fortunate.
Is it your notion that teams have the ability to distribute their total runs scored in such a manner as to maximize their chances of winning each game? It is something Sabermetrics has been searching for without finding any evidence..as least not yet.
You seem to be angry and it is just math. The Rangers improved their run differential from 2014 to 2015 by 154 runs. That is outstanding. The Blues Jays improved theirs by 184 runs. That is 30 plus runs better.
Those run totals are more meaningful than the win totals in evaluating the talent levels of the teams. The win totals reflect the luck each team had in distributing those extra runs. And of course the win totals are far more meaningful in terms of the standings. My position is that there are more accurate ways to access talent levels than wins.
You can also calculate how many runs a team should score or prevent by examining their offensive/defensive totals. There is a formula for translating hits, extra base hits, walks, errors etc, into how many runs a team should have scored based on that output, and how many they should have prevented by looking at the number of hits, extra base hits, errors, walks etc, that they surrendered. The Dodgers underperformed by these measures, finishing 2nd in the NL in OPS, but 8th in runs scored. That is offensive inefficiency and suggests poor management.
Last edited by Grandstander; 11-07-2015 at 12:50 PM..
I am attributing the under/over performances to luck, did you not understand that from my post? I should have thought it clear from:
Is it your notion that teams have the ability to distribute their total runs scored in such a manner as to maximize their chances of winning each game? It is something Sabermetrics has been searching for without finding any evidence..as least not yet.
You seem to be angry and it is just math. The Rangers improved their run differential from 2014 to 2015 by 154 runs. That is outstanding. The Blues Jays improved theirs by 184 runs. That is 30 plus runs better.
Those run totals are more meaningful than the win totals in evaluating the talent levels of the teams. The win totals reflect the luck each team had in distributing those extra runs. And of course the win totals are far more meaningful in terms of the standings. My position is that there are more accurate ways to access talent levels than wins.
You can also calculate how many runs a team should score or prevent by examining their offensive/defensive totals. There is a formula for translating hits, extra base hits, walks, errors etc, into how many runs a team should have scored based on that output, and how many they should have prevented by looking at the number of hits, extra base hits, errors, walks etc, that they surrendered. The Dodgers underperformed by these measures, finishing 2nd in the NL in OPS, but 8th in runs scored. That is offensive inefficiency and suggests poor management.
Hard to have that much "luck", whether good or bad.
I'd be inclined to give AA "Executive of the Year". He basically put together a Steinbrenner-ish Yankees team - loaded up on all-stars and present/former MVP candidates. But I'm not buying Gibbons as MOY on any measure. Maybe if Gibbons had achieved the offensive output increase with the 2014 roster, but when your GM allows you to upgrade with Donaldson, Tulo, Martin, et.al., is it any surprise offense would blow up?
15-28 in one run games tells me that more often than not, Gibbons did not make great decisions late in games with either bullpen management or offensive/defensive substitutions. Bannister simply did more with less. A whole lot less.
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