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Probably the best place to look for who is eligible.
New names that have a shot at getting in.. Griffey and Hoffman.
Final year - Alan Trammell, Mark McGuire (Trammell's 15th year, McGuire's 10th.. Eligibility is 10 years now, Trammell and Lee Smith are grandfathered at 15 years)
If I had to bet.. I'm going to call 2 names get in and a wild card..
Griffey.. He's a first ballot HOF, though, it will be very close. Not a real high total, I think he just sneaks in. 77-80%.
Piazza makes it this year, again, very close.. 75-78%
And.. They're going to put a closer in.. I don't think Hoffman makes it on first ballot, so.. I'm going with Lee Smith. I think he gets a bump being in his 14th year and might just clear the threshold. But.. The new selection process might hurt him. Since they've eliminated voters who haven't covered the sport in 10 years.. That's really going to hurt some of the older players who are eligible.
Schilling's total climbs, but he's still well short. He'll get in, but another 4-5 years before he does. His problem is that he played on crappy teams and there's the perception that he was 'only' a good playoff pitcher. Phillies fans know that some of those years he was 15-11, he'd have been 24-4 or so if he had been on a good team.
Raines and McGriff.. McGriff was a great player, I just think he's short of HOF material. Raines, has a case. Neither make it this year.. I just think Raines has a shot down the road.
2017 class just sucks. So, it's possible that Piazza falls back to be the 'big name' inductee next year.
WOW Big Mac has been retired for THAT long this is already his 10th year on the HOF ballot?? I remember going to the Yankees home opener in 1997 against the A's, the year McGuire got traded midseason from Oakland to St. Louis for what turned out to be a bunch of garbage, like it was yesterday.
I think Griff definitely gets in, no doubt about that, same with Hoffman, I think Piazza will make it as well.
WOW Big Mac has been retired for THAT long this is already his 10th year on the HOF ballot?? I remember going to the Yankees home opener in 1997 against the A's, the year McGuire got traded midseason from Oakland to St. Louis for what turned out to be a bunch of garbage, like it was yesterday.
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Further back....I was at the game in Oakland in 1987 when McGwire tied the AL home run record for rookies. At the start of the 1987 season A's fans were excited because Jose Canseco had won the Rookie of the Year award in 1986 and there was an expectation of an A winning again in 1987.....Only it was thought that new firstbaseman Rob Nelson was going to be the guy who did it. McGwire made the team as a thirdbaseman.
Nelson turned out to be terrible McGwire was shifted to firstbase....and....
I would agree that Griffey Jr. will be elected on this upcoming ballot, and probably Trevor Hoffman as well.
I'm less certain about Piazza. He should have been a first ballot/first year selection and that he was not suggests that the writers suspect he was PEDs aided...why else would you not vote for the best offensive catcher in history? If they thought that then, and they are still not voting for Bonds/Clemens/Sosa and the other 'roid boys, why would they change their minds about Piazza?
What would really be interesting is if someone gets enshrined, and then after that it is discovered that the player was a PEDs user. Then what happens?
I'm less certain about Piazza. He should have been a first ballot/first year selection and that he was not suggests that the writers suspect he was PEDs aided...why else would you not vote for the best offensive catcher in history? If they thought that then, and they are still not voting for Bonds/Clemens/Sosa and the other 'roid boys, why would they change their minds about Piazza?
What would really be interesting is if someone gets enshrined, and then after that it is discovered that the player was a PEDs user. Then what happens?
Gary Carter, remember.. What was it? His 5th year before he got in?
Piazza i've never seen linked seriously to PEDs. I may be forgetting something.. There's so many..
They're not going to boot someone for PEDs if they get in.. Even the ones who aren't getting in now.. 15-20 years down the road, they will get in.. Clemens.. Bonds.. It'll take the veterans committee to put them in, but.. I think it will happen. Not saying that's right or wrong. Just what I believe.
Gary Carter, remember.. What was it? His 5th year before he got in?
Piazza i've never seen linked seriously to PEDs. I may be forgetting something.. There's so many..
They're not going to boot someone for PEDs if they get in.. Even the ones who aren't getting in now.. 15-20 years down the road, they will get in.. Clemens.. Bonds.. It'll take the veterans committee to put them in, but.. I think it will happen. Not saying that's right or wrong. Just what I believe.
Piazza owned up to taking Andro, but doing so before it was banned. Andro was the substance spotted in McGwire's locker by reporters during the '98 home run race. So, Piazza has not admitted to doing anything which could have gotten him suspended, but he opened the door to suspicion by the Andro use.
I read Piazza's autobiography and he struck me as someone who has breezed through life with self serving rationalizations and a sense of extra entitlement. I had not been thinking of him as a probable user before reading the book, but now I do. At least I found nothing in his character which would make me think that PEDS use would have been rejected by Piazza on moral grounds.
None of that represents proof, but I figure that the writers are privy to all sorts of off the record scuttlebutt, and would have heard something if Piazza was a 'roid boy. They couldn't print it because it wasn't proof, or the source refused to go on record.
Add in the fact that Piazza was a come from nowhere superstar hitter, someone no one seemed to think would even be good much less great... all grounds for suspicion.
Maybe the writers don't feel Piazza is was good enough, but he has come close to election, and that suspicion may have been the difference.
I don't consider Andro before it was banned in the same league as the other things that were being taken. I'd rather not have my favorite player (whoever that might be) linked to it.. But.. I also won't string someone up for taking it when there were no rules against it.
There are questions about the fairness of the voting that takes into account drug use before the date an actual drug policy goes into effect! With that said, a gambling on baseball policy has been in effect for about 95 years, but many believe that if you have 4,000 hits, it shouldn't matter. Those topics have always been the subject of debate.
Putting that aside, both Bernie Williams and Curt Schilling were as great of postseason players as there ever have been, with the WS rings to back it up! But they're nowhere near consideration!
Trying to figure out why Griffey "sneaks in!" The worst type of 'body increase' he had was a pot belly toward the end of his career, when he smacked HR 600! And Hoffman is another dude who's more than a 'sneak in' candidate!
There are questions about the fairness of the voting that takes into account drug use before the date an actual drug policy goes into effect! With that said, a gambling on baseball policy has been in effect for about 95 years, but many believe that if you have 4,000 hits, it shouldn't matter. Those topics have always been the subject of debate.
Putting that aside, both Bernie Williams and Curt Schilling were as great of postseason players as there ever have been, with the WS rings to back it up! But they're nowhere near consideration!
Trying to figure out why Griffey "sneaks in!" The worst type of 'body increase' he had was a pot belly toward the end of his career, when he smacked HR 600! And Hoffman is another dude who's more than a 'sneak in' candidate!
Wish Piazza played a bit better defense!
Well, to me, a HOFer shouldn't be in there JUST for playoffs. Schilling, has that image, though I don't believe it's true. Again, look at the crappy Phillies teams he played on (With the exception of '93). I think playoffs can certainly tip in a marginal HOFer. But someone shouldn't get in JUST for playoff performances. Williams.. I think he's below qualifications fro HOF and his playoff perfomances aren't enough to get him in. And, obviously, he won't get in through election as he's now off the ballot.
Griffey, the reason I think he just sneaks in is that I think some voters will look at his career as a 'what could have been'.. Let's be honest.. A healthy Griffey for his career would probably have 800+ home runs. Not saying it's right that his health will affect his election, but I think it will.. Some people are saying 95% total for him.. I think it'll be on the lower end, but he still gets in. I think some voters won't put him on the ballot because of their perceived difference between what he did and what he 'could' have done if healthy.
Hoffman.. Look, I think the first 'first ballot' closer will be Rivera. Yes, Smoltz made it in on his first ballot, but.. He was.. Very unique in that he had.. 200 wins and 150 saves? He was not a true/career closer. Hoffman certainly deserves to be elected.. I just don't think politically, he has the clout to get in on the first ballot, especially with Rivera coming up for election in 2018. Were Rivera not on the radar decently soon.. Hoffman possibly would get in first ballot.
Rose and Jackson.. Ok.. Here's my problem with Rose not being in.. They changed the rules after his crimes. admittedly, it was an 'unoffical' rule prior to him, which is why Jackson isn't in. My problem with Jackson is that the evidence is flimsy against him that he was in on the fix. And, frankly.. Someone who hit .385 in the series, even if he took money, which I believe he admitted, but then said he gave it back.. He cheated the cheaters. Noone else on the '19 Sox team is in the discussion so far as having a HOF career. Some MIGHT have, if they had continued playing.. Jackson had the career before he was banned.
Schilling's mid-career injury issues and his personality are the only thing holding him back. At his best, he was almost neck-and-neck with RJ for best starting pitcher on the planet. As it was, he was essentially the 2nd best starting pitcher in baseball for at least a little while and was a true ace for a long time. I would have loved to have had him on the Braves.
Ok.. Here's my problem with Rose not being in.. They changed the rules after his crimes. admittedly, it was an 'unoffical' rule prior to him, which is why Jackson isn't in. My problem with Jackson is that the evidence is flimsy against him that he was in on the fix. And, frankly.. Someone who hit .385 in the series, even if he took money, which I believe he admitted, but then said he gave it back.. He cheated the cheaters. Noone else on the '19 Sox team is in the discussion so far as having a HOF career. Some MIGHT have, if they had continued playing.. Jackson had the career before he was banned.
The above is incorrect in several aspects.
First, with regard to Rose, there was no rule change of any sort. The edict against gambling had been in place since 1921. There are signs in every ML clubhouse which remind the players that they are never to bet on baseball and they should not hang out with gamblers. Every Spring Training a represenative from the Commissioner's office makes appearances at every camp and calls the players together to remind them once more about the no gambling on baseball rule.
Where did you get the notion that any rules were changed after Rose had violated them?
Regarding Jackson....he accepted 5000 dollars from gamblers to be in on the fix, was aware that there was a fix on, and said nothing about it. Whether or not he played his best in the Series, he still accepted 5 grand to throw games. He could have turned down the money, he could have reported the fix. He did neither.
That is why Joe Jackson was banned.
Finally, there is an excellent chance that Eddie Cicotte would have eventually been enshrined had it not been for his involvement in throwing the games.
If you wish to feel sympathetic for one of the Black Sox, it should be for Buck Weaver rather than Jackson. Weaver was aware of the fix and failed to report it, but he refused to accept money to be part of it and he played all out in the Series. His lifetime ban was for failing to report, which was the same penalty suffered by those who actually took money and tanked the games. I think a year's suspension for Weaver would have been more just.
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