Spring Training Thread

[filihok]

Let's see what the data says

from Fangraphs

Originally Posted by twista6002

Hamels was constantly behind in the count.

2007: First Pitch Strikes 60.3%
2008: First Pitch Strikes 61.6%
2009: First Pitch Strikes 60.7%

2008: 66.88% of pitches were strikes
2009: 66.82% of pitches were strikes

How is it possible that he was consistently behind in the count in 2009 when he threw first pitch strikes 60% of the time and strikes 66% of the time and these numbers are identical to his 2008 numbers?

He had trouble maintaining velocity

2008: Average Fastball Velocity 89.9 mph
2009: Average Fastball Velocity 90.3 mph

http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/4972_P_1_20091003.png (broken link)

http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/4972_P_FA_20091003.png (broken link)

His average fastball velocity was higher in 2009 than in 2008. There is a 5 game stretch toward the end of the year where both his average velocity and the low end of his velocity ranges drop off. That's certainly something to keep an eye on and consider though he brought it back up again in his last couple of starts. He also started off the season in 2009 with better velocity than 2008. Maybe there was some fatigue late in the season.

He could not locate his offspeed pitches (particularly his changeup, which is his bread & butter). When he did he didn't have any movement. He was just flat.

2008 horizontal movement on his changeup: 6.2 inches
2009 horizontal movement on his changeup: 7.5 inches

2008 vertical movement on his changeup: 7.9 inches
2009 vertical movement on his changeup: 8.2 inches

His change up had more movement in 2009 than in 2008

His curve did have less movement.
2008 H: -1.7
2009 H: -0.3

He was a shell of the pitcher he had previously been. Anyone who actually sat down and watched him at all since he broke in could tell you so. His manager, teammates and the Phillies FO even would agree. If you [sic] esoteric stats dwarf their baseball knowledge, bless your heart.

Do they agree though? I've never read anywhere that any member of the Phillies organization has said that Hamels was a shell of his former self. I haven't been paying that much attention though, so it is possible. But why would a team ever say that? If they did actually think that Hamels was a shell of his former self why would they have traded Lee this winter instead of Hamels?

I object to your use of the word 'esoteric'. Any statistic I provide I provide a link to and attempt to explain wherever I think it is necessary. If you choose not to understand or utilize all the information out there, then that is on you. Statistics are meant to be a supplement to scouting, not a replacement for scouting. If I ask a question (like I have multiple times in this post) it's because I want to hear the answer. I respect your baseball acumen so if you say that Hamels was constantly behind hitters, but the data appears to show that he was usually ahead of hitters, then I'd like to know where the disconnect is.

[Finger Laker]

i could read the info on his change a little differently - he could of had trouble locating it because there was too much movement, so in an adjustment to place it he could of taken some off .... that would keep it consistent with twista's observations

i don't think hamels did poorly last year - pitching is tough and it's a fine line between a good season and one that is forgetable

it could be where he did most things that he normally did, but was maybe a little off on his "out" pitch and had a little less luck defensively and it makes the result look a lot worse than it is

[twista6002]

Kyle Kendrick looks like his pre-Punk'D self. Bad news NL

[filihok]

Here is a list of major league pitchers who struck out less batters per nine innings than Kyle Kendrick did last year in AAA.

John Lannan

[filihok]

Originally Posted by filihok

2008: Hamels struck out 7.76 per 9 innings
2009: Hamels struck out 7.81 per 9

2010: Hamels struck out 9.61 per 9

2008: Hamels walked 2.1 per 9
2009: Hamels walked 2.0 per 9

2010 Hamels walked 2.63 per 9

2008: Hamels gave up 1.11 HR per 9
2009: Hamels gave up 1.12 HR per 9

2010 Hamels gave up 1.12 HR per 9

2008: Hamels FIP=3.72, xFIP=3.63, tERA=4.26
2009: Hamels FIP=3.72, xFIP=3.69, tERA=4.15

2010: Hamels FIP=3.67, xFIP=3.43, tERA=3.67

2008: Hamels Ground Ball/Fly Ball/Line Drive rates were 39.5/38.7/21.8 %
2009: Hamels Ground Ball/Fly Ball/Line Drive rates were 40.4/38.7/20.8 %

2010: Hamels Ground Ball/Fly Ball/Line Drive rates were 45.4/37.9/16.7

In 2008 the Phillies defense turned 73.3% of batted balls into outs
In 2009 the Phillies defense turned 67.5% of batted balls into outs

In 2010 the Phillies defense turned 70.4% of batted balls into out

Originally Posted by filihok

2007: First Pitch Strikes 60.3%
2008: First Pitch Strikes 61.6%
2009: First Pitch Strikes 60.7%

2010: First Pitch Strikes 58.8%

2008: 66.88% of pitches were strikes
2009: 66.82% of pitches were strikes

2010: 65.95% of pitches were strikes

2008: Average Fastball Velocity 89.9 mph
2009: Average Fastball Velocity 90.3 mph

2010: Average Fastball Velocity 92.0 mps

2008 horizontal movement on his changeup: 6.2 inches
2009 horizontal movement on his changeup: 7.5 inches

2010 horizontal movement on his changeup: 7.8 inches

2008 vertical movement on his changeup: 7.9 inches
2009 vertical movement on his changeup: 8.2 inches

2010 vertical movement on his changeup: 6.7 inches

His curve did have less movement.
2008 H: -1.7
2009 H: -0.3

2010 H: -1.6

So, it appears that Hamels is 'back' this year. Though I still maintain that he never left and he's even better this year than he's ever been.

One thing that is of interest is the movement on his curveball. It was quite different in 2009 than in 2008 or 2010. Was that the reason that his 2009 looked so much different than his other years? If his curveball was flat it could have been hit harder which could lead to an increased BABIP.

Let's see
in 2008 Hamels prevented -.17 runs per 100 curve balls that he threw. That means that .17 more runs than average scored (not 'actual' runs but runs as calculated by wOBA) when Hamels threw a curve.
in 2009 Hamels prevented -1.37 runs per 100 curve balls that he threw.
in 2010 Hamels prevented .48 runs per 100 curve balls that he threw.

In 2009 his curveball did get hit more than in 2008 and 2010. So, perhaps there is something to the theory that Hamels 'wasn't sharp' in 2009, at least his curveball.