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Hard to say. The voters can be awfully *wierd* at times and the award is not the best player in the game award. (points at Steve Nash)
There are also voting blocks in the league and Melo might chop loose enough Lebron votes to let Durant overtake him....not to mention some voters seem to like to pass the award around.
Regardless, if any of those 3 win it I wouldn't be thinking it's a terrible choice. They are all on their way to the HOF and are insanely good players.
Well you're right voting can be weird at times. The reason why I think Lebron will win it this year is he's on a team that is currently the World Champion and with the NBA's best record. They are the consensus to win again this year. Sure Durant and Melo have higher scoring averages (there are more factors than scoring), but only by a margin of over a point. In addition those players have yet proven that they can lead a team to a championship. And what really clinched it in my opinion, was the long winning streak the Heat had. Taking all that into account, its hard to vote against him. I would be highly surprised if he didn't win it.
I think Melo will get it. Durant is a pure scorer, but doesn't seem to heave up as many shots.
Durant is very cognizant of his shooting percentages, and rarely forces shots that could affect that percentage. I actually think Melo is the 'better' scorer in terms of arsenal.
Durant is very cognizant of his shooting percentages, and rarely forces shots that could affect that percentage. I actually think Melo is the 'better' scorer in terms of arsenal.
Yeah, but Melo is at his peak and Durant is still getting better IMO.
I think you HAVE to be cognizant of your shooting percentage because that is what the coach has been drilling into thier heads because of a certain Westbrook fellow.
Well you're right voting can be weird at times. The reason why I think Lebron will win it this year is he's on a team that is currently the World Champion and with the NBA's best record. They are the consensus to win again this year. Sure Durant and Melo have higher scoring averages (there are more factors than scoring), but only by a margin of over a point. In addition those players have yet proven that they can lead a team to a championship. And what really clinched it in my opinion, was the long winning streak the Heat had. Taking all that into account, its hard to vote against him. I would be highly surprised if he didn't win it.
OUt of curiosity I pulled up last years vote, Durant was a solid 2nd place and not horribly behind Lebron. They split the 1st place votes more or less about 2-1.
Yeah, but Melo is at his peak and Durant is still getting better IMO.
Yeah but I think Melo has always had a more diverse arsenal even when he was at the same point in his career. That's not to say Durant couldn't further develop but he is primarily a shooter. Melo's postgame gives him an edge in my book and Durant is very slightly built, so he may not ever develop that but he does have the height going for him. Kobe has gone on record as saying he feels Melo is the toughest cover and he's guarded Lebron, Durant, Wade on many occasions.
OUt of curiosity I pulled up last years vote, Durant was a solid 2nd place and not horribly behind Lebron. They split the 1st place votes more or less about 2-1.
Lebron won it last year with the 4th best record in the NBA.
I thought Durant would win last year so what do I know? lol.
Last year Lebron received 85 1st place votes to Durants 24 and I expect that this year, which is a totally different circumstance than last year, it will be by a larger margin. Especially now since Lebron has proven that he can lead a team to a title, which in my opinion carrys a lot of clout on how people vote. When last year's voting was done, it was prior to the finals, when Lebron had not won a title at that point, yet he won by a good margin. The more compelling story will be who finishes 2nd between Durant and Melo (and perhaps somebody else). Melo has really leaped into territory of NBA MVP worthiness overnight.
Last year Lebron received 85 1st place votes to Durants 24 and I expect that this year, which is a totally different circumstance than last year, it will be by a larger margin. Especially now since Lebron has proven that he can lead a team to a title, which in my opinion carrys a lot of clout on how people vote. When last year's voting was done, it was prior to the finals, when Lebron had not won a title at that point, yet he won by a good margin. The more compelling story will be who finishes 2nd between Durant and Melo (and perhaps somebody else). Melo has really leaped into territory of NBA MVP worthiness overnight.
Only 3 of the last 10 MVP's had won a championship by the time they won their MVP award.
We had a thread about this a year or so ago but something like 75% of the MVP winners had the best record in the NBA...it's generally a reward for regular season record.
With that said, Lebron will probably win again but not because he won a championship.
Only 3 of the last 10 MVP's had won a championship by the time they won their MVP award.
We had a thread about this a year or so ago but something like 75% of the MVP winners had the best record in the NBA...it's generally a reward for regular season record.
With that said, Lebron will probably win again but not because he won a championship.
All things being equal, having a championship under your belt should carry some weight in voting, especially if the other candidates don't. That said I should clarify my comment, I think it will be one of many factors considered in this years voting. In this case, Lebron has a title on his resume, whereas the other candidates, Durant and Melo dont, but they are the 1 and 2 top scorers in the NBA. Coupled with other factors, that I stated earlier, the best record in the NBA, the winning streak are all factors among others in choosing this years MVP. Judging by one factor alone, such as winning a championship, should never be the case in voting and never has.
If you scroll down that list of MVP's, most had won or were on the verge of winning a championship, which translates that these players were on championship caliber teams, certainly a huge factor in the voting.
All things being equal, having a championship under your belt should carry some weight in voting, especially if the other candidates don't. That said I should clarify my comment, I think it will be one of many factors considered in this years voting. In this case, Lebron has a title on his resume, whereas the other candidates, Durant and Melo dont, but they are the 1 and 2 top scorers in the NBA. Coupled with other factors, that I stated earlier, the best record in the NBA, the winning streak are all factors among others in choosing this years MVP. Judging by one factor alone, such as winning a championship, should never be the case in voting and never has.
If you scroll down that list of MVP's, most had won or were on the verge of winning a championship, which translates that these players were on championship caliber teams, certainly a huge factor in the voting.
Great discussion.
Hey, if someone said I had to bet my car and pick one guy.....of course I'm taking Lebron to win it. (They are 4 1/2 games in front over everybody in the league)
However, I keep looking at those 2 (almost 3, he barely lost to Dirk) MVP's by Nash and regular season team record is the only thing I can point to.
Oh well, it's like trying to herd cats since there is no firm criteria.
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