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Which part of his article do you disagree with? I just read it, and while I don't necessarily agree that every home built creates 3 new jobs (maybe temporarily), that data came from NAHB, not from this guy. Everything else he said, I agree with. There is an extraordinary shortage of houses on the market, which is driving up home prices. New construction is picking back up as a result. New construction prices are much higher than they were a few years ago. The unemployment rate in Idaho is one of the lowest in the country (the Idaho department of labor currently says 6.2% statewide, with Ada county at or under that).
The other article is much more interesting though. I do agree that we have an ever increasing number of retirees moving here. A huge percentage of our clients moving in from out of state are older and/or retired. I hadn't really considered that they look more to services than goods, and I don't know that I 100% agree with that in the first place, as I think that older people buy just as many goods as younger people, just not necessarily the same goods. They also tend to buy more locally, whereas younger people buy more off the internet. So that is one aspect. But also, if the percentage of the population is shifting toward retirees, that means that there will be more demand for employees, meaning wages/benefits will have to increase in order to entice those available employees to work for your company. It is a more complicated and multi-faceted equation than the article implies.
I hadn't heard that we had negative population growth in 2012. I have no idea what might have caused so many of the younger generation to suddenly decide that NOW was the time to leave the state. Anyone have any thoughts on that? I saw the outgoing migration map showed the most people moving to Washington state, so wondered if it might be political, as they are much more liberal than Idaho, but then I noticed that the 2nd highest was Utah, one of the only states more conservative than Idaho. So I just have no idea at all.
My 20-year-old daughter left Boise right after she graduated from high school.
She worked at City Year in Seattle for a year before enrolling at WWU out in
Bellingham with a full scholarship. She's tired of living in Washington though.
The real estate market here and in many other regions is too volatile to make
any long term predictions when it comes to buying homes. My BIL out in Port
St. John, FL paid $235K for his house back in 2007. It's now only worth $85K.
We purchased our 4/2 home in Boise back in June 2002 and it's worth $3,000
less than what we paid 13-years ago if it was put on the market today.
I hadn't heard that we had negative population growth in 2012. I have no idea what might have caused so many of the younger generation to suddenly decide that NOW was the time to leave the state. Anyone have any thoughts on that? I saw the outgoing migration map showed the most people moving to Washington state, so wondered if it might be political, as they are much more liberal than Idaho, but then I noticed that the 2nd highest was Utah, one of the only states more conservative than Idaho. So I just have no idea at all.
Idaho did not have negative population growth last year and in fact grew by nearly 12,000 people and the Boise area also grew in population although slower then it grew in the past. A quick google search will show you the results.
The younger people who left the state probably moved to Washington because of more liberal views and legal ganja and the big city of Seattle. Most of the peeps who moved to Utah are probably LDS and I know for a fact and personal experience with friends that many young people in SE Idaho tend to move to the SLC area because of proximity and religious views. I have several younger friends who left Salt Lake and moved here to Boise. An interesting fact is that the largest amount of newcomers to Idaho last year were from Washington and Utah is right up there too, so we are all swapping people it seems.
I have not noticed a change in Boise's youthfulness and the city actually seems more progressive and more liberal then it was even 3 years ago.
I live in the Northend and my home value is back to where it should be. Yes!!
Just young people. The overall population has grown from new people and Idaho also has a pretty high birth rate. The growth rate for 60+ is very large.
I would assume people move to Washington for jobs. If people really wanted to go to some liberal hot spot I think they'd go to Portland. Also, marijuana did not become legal til this last December. I am assuming you were joking. It is easily available in California with a prescription...easy to get, just claim anxiety or something.
And I would agree that Utah is probably LDS movement. Utah does have a better variety of jobs though. A couple of my HS friends - non LDS - moved there for better jobs.
It would be interesting if this was broken up by region. I would assume that the more rural areas are taking the biggest hits. Nonetheless, it is still a problem in Idaho AND Boise.
Boise does seem pretty liberal these days, blue dot in a red state. I think the youth that have grown up there post high school probably want out, and why not. I did the same from my home town, nice place for sure but there was a lot out there to see/experience beyond the bubble. Of course you have the college kids coming in, but mostly from other parts of Idaho I suspect, or locals who just don't relocate for college. It's more of the 30-40's people demographic I would be interested in learning about.
For buying, houses in Boise are inexpensive compared to many other spots in the country. I have love for San Diego, but damn, got $400,000 on the low end? Yup, buying rentals in Boise doesn't seem like a bad way to go as a lot of people are renting now instead of buying.
Boise does seem pretty liberal these days, blue dot in a red state. I think the youth that have grown up there post high school probably want out, and why not. I did the same from my home town, nice place for sure but there was a lot out there to see/experience beyond the bubble. Of course you have the college kids coming in, but mostly from other parts of Idaho I suspect, or locals who just don't relocate for college. It's more of the 30-40's people demographic I would be interested in learning about.
For buying, houses in Boise are inexpensive compared to many other spots in the country. I have love for San Diego, but damn, got $400,000 on the low end? Yup, buying rentals in Boise doesn't seem like a bad way to go as a lot of people are renting now instead of buying.
Boise has three left-leaning neighborhoods; Bench, Northend, and Eastend. The rest is still pretty damn red with no signs of changing. The legislature is a good ol' boy network and is intent on making sure the power doesn't tilt to population areas like it did in OR and WA.
Up until last year it was easy to find rentals that cash-flow. There's still deals out there, but much harder to find these days, especially coming from out-of-state without local connections. There are some major apartment projects set to be built, so I'd be wary of any multi-family investments without a considerable location advantage to these projects. SFH should be less, if at all, affected as they cater to a very different market here.
The last few years has been a landlord's market, which could soften a little as supply increases and more renters flock to home ownership. Appreciation is just speculation and should just be considered icing on the cake, we will probably go through a few more dips before we ever see 2006 prices
Boise will continue to grow, IMO, but it will be much more measured than in the past. Lack of jobs, education, infrastructure, and general isolation, should keep growth in check. Call centers and service jobs seem to be experiencing the most growth, which is discouraging. There are a few young companies that show promise so there are some positive signs.
Last edited by truckingbronco; 05-02-2013 at 09:46 AM..
And I would agree that Utah is probably LDS movement. Utah does have a better variety of jobs though. A couple of my HS friends - non LDS - moved there for better jobs.
Actually, the reason your non-LDS friends moved to Utah is the reason most people move to Utah. The growth in Utah is not primarily from LDS people moving in, but from non-LDS people moving in. Utah (primarily Salt Lake City) is becoming far more diverse in all respects than it used to be.
The educational options are changing for the good. BSU continues to grow and secure large donations for new research programs. The College of Western Idaho is growing quickly and we have a new Concordia Law University in addition to the College of Idaho and NW Nazarene University. Things are lining up for a better future we can hope. Utah and Idaho will always have people moving between them. Also, a huge portion of the growth in Utah is not people moving in but people who already live there having babies. A lot of Utahn's leave UT and move to Boise. As I said both states will always have people moving between them.
The educational options are changing for the good. BSU continues to grow and secure large donations for new research programs. The College of Western Idaho is growing quickly and we have a new Concordia Law University in addition to the College of Idaho and NW Nazarene University. Things are lining up for a better future we can hope. Utah and Idaho will always have people moving between them. Also, a huge portion of the growth in Utah is not people moving in but people who already live there having babies. A lot of Utahn's leave UT and move to Boise. As I said both states will always have people moving between them.
Idaho's problem with education begin long before the university level, although the Boise School District is an exception to the Idaho norm. The growth of BSU and our higher-ed options is a bright spot and the growth has occurred in spite of the State leaders. It's an issue I'm very close to and work with daily.
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