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Old 03-31-2011, 12:02 PM
 
2,987 posts, read 10,135,910 times
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The title says it all. This is the statistic I have seen in the media as publicized by the USGS. But I have been hearing this statistic for a while now and am wondering, what was the timeline? When did they start throwing this statistic out? In other words, is the timeframe from say, 2000-2030 according to their estimates? I have lost track and can't find any info online about when this estimate was first put out. Or does the percentage of likelihood keep going up every year and the "next 30" cycle starts over annually?

I know quakes can't be predicted and they have been forecasting the big one for decades. No paranoia here ar all either. I even know the Southern San Andreas is overdue by some 150 years (lol) so it makes you wonder, couldn't the big one be another 150 years out? But I am just wondering about the most recent statistic, if anyone can shed some light on it I would appreciate it. Thanks.
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Old 03-31-2011, 12:11 PM
 
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They've been saying it for at least 30 years, probably much longer.
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Old 03-31-2011, 12:22 PM
 
Location: Declezville, CA
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Even my dog yawns when she hears that.

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Old 03-31-2011, 12:35 PM
 
2,987 posts, read 10,135,910 times
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LOL cute.
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Old 03-31-2011, 12:54 PM
 
Location: Brooklyn, New York
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The best answer is no one knows, but there are two facts that you have to keep in mind. 1. The Japanese earthquake probably effected the San Andreas fault as well, since its on the same tectonic plate (Pacific). 2. LA is going to end up north of San Francisco in a few million years... so it all depends on the speed and not the timing, since we know its gonna happen either way.
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